Bitcoin $82K: Can Bulls Defend the Support?

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Bitcoin is back at our critical $82,000 level. Can the bulls defend this support or are the bears about [music] to start changing the trend now? Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] My cryptoiseise. Hello ladies and gentle. This is S from my crypto paradise. Welcome back.

It's great to hear. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So previously we were talking about this support zone right here in the previous video that I recorded for you on back on Saturday right and we have expected that with the highest probability we will push down towards this support zone that is having the lower boundary at $81,000 and then we will see a

nice V-shaped reversal reaction out of it. So as you can see we have pushed down towards this support zone and right now we are indeed seeing a nice V-shaped reversal out of it. great reaction. We have actually seen that the whales are supporting this push to the upside which is increasing the probability that we will continue in this direction because if you are in our free Telegram channel where we are showing

what the whales are doing in yesterday basically you have seen that there was a whale that has opened $37 million Bitcoin long position right after we have touched our support zone. uh with the lower boundary being at $81,000. This whale opened a great position at $82,300 and helped to push Bitcoin above the resistance that was exactly at that price.

So, as you can see, previously that $82,300 was acting as a support. Then it was acting as a resistance but not for so long because this whale really helped to push it through and that helped a Bitcoin reaching the previous almost the previous high at $84,000.

In the previous video you can see that clearly I have told you because it looked like it that the first wave already finished right here at $83,300. Right? But you can see that then the price action started to reach a little bit higher than that.

And it was actually reason why with Paris only VIPs we have been able to take our second profit earlier on Bitcoin right here at the $84,500. So we have actually taken the profit right here right the second one that we have already premade back in October 9.

And it's really important when you enter any position, short position or long position, that not only you know where you're going to exit when you're wrong, but also when you're going to exit when you are right. Because then before entering the position, if you don't know where you're going to exit when you are correct and when you going to exit when you are wrong, you will start doing emotional decisions because once

you have money on the table, the game changes, right? the mind changes, you start to be biased, you start to see if you're in a long position only the bullish signals. So you will start filtering out the bearish signals that are visible in the market.

Right? So it's very important. It's this kind of bias that when you believe in something, you will start to filter everything else that is against it. Right? And you can always create a bullish scenario in the market same as bearish scenario at the same time.

Right? So it's all about following the odds, the edge that you have inside of your own system, your own personal system over and over again and really delete the emotions out of that system. Right? So if you will start planning where you're going to get out of that position once you are already in the position, you will have a very hard time of exiting when you are wrong right on your position

because the ego is involved and there are other things that are involved uh that your brain basically will not allow you to easily exit when the position goes against you. And also when you are right it's usually the brain really wants to push the great chemicals in your brain that are made when you take a profit right.

So if you do not predetermine the invalidation level where you will exit earlier and the exit targets before entering the position again the brain will just let you to cut your profits earlier, right? To close your profits and take profits earlier and you will not be able to sit on your hands which is important when you are in a profitable position.

actually let the trend develop so you can make as much money as possible when you are right on your position and lose as little money as possible when you are wrong on your position. That is why tight stop-loss and as high targets as possible are really [snorts] important aka great risk reward is extremely important if you are looking for being long-term profitable and I'm not talking about few months I'm talking about

few years at least 3 years right so let's take a look right now what we are doing so we have pushed a little bit higher right and here I have marked actually the first motive mode wave yeah so we understand that with the probability We are in a larger degree fifth wave, right?

So there is a very high probability that right now we are in a larger degree fourth wave. Let me actually show it to you from the beginning. So right here we are in a corrective mode wave structure. We already understand right from the weekly time frame perspective with the highest probability we are at the Cwave.

So the Cwave with the highest probability will finished right here at this resistance. So that's the 60% probability that we will start getting rejected and turn into a bearish trend from this resistance. Right? So maximum is around $90,000 and then we will start seeing a reversal towards $44,000.

That's 60% probability. 30% probability is that we will be able to reclaim this $90,000 and continue to push higher towards the $99,000 and then have the reversal towards $44,000. That's 30% probability. And the least probable scenario is that the bulls will be able to reclaim this resistance $99,000 turn it into support and we will continue towards the new all-time high that will be possibly at $169,000.

Least probable scenio for multiple reasons and you know about all of them because you have watched the previous videos where we were explaining this together, right? We were going through it together. Let's take a look right now. now henceforth to add this sequence.

Let's zoom in. So this is a motive wave structure. This one that means it solid itself into far smaller waves. So with the highest probability we have already completed the first, second, third, fourth and right now we are in the fifth wave. The fifth wave is a multi-wave structure.

That means it sort out itself into five smaller waves as you know from our MCP free university, right? You know that pretty pretty well. Let's take a look. Right here on that beautiful picture, right? Impulse. Here you have the fifth wave. It's a motive mode wave structure, right?

Motive mode wave basically. So it's either an impulse itself or an ending diagonal because it's in the end of the trend. So it sort out itself into five small waves. So far with the highest probability we have created 1, two, three, finished right here.

fourth that was the double three and right now we are creating the final fifth wave which also subdivides itself into five small waves momentum we will take a look at it in a minute we will go into that 4 hour 1 hour and 15 minutes time frame so bear with me let's take a look right now quickly at the momentum indicators there is no bullish divergence we have actually got bearish divergence

right here but so far the bulls are handling that quite well okay on the stoastic RSI We are having a bullish cross and we are trying to get out of that oversold area. Once the bow flags want to start looking to the upside in this zone, the bulls will be able to take over.

Okay, so definitely pay attention to that. But right now, I can already tell you from the intro, we have put this kind of question on the table. Will the bulls be able to defend the $82,000? And I can tell you right now that there is much higher probability that they will because of what we are seeing on the lower time frames.

Okay. So let me take you to the 4hour time frame right now. First of all the whales with this push to the upside not only the one whale that's created the 30 plus million long positions are supporting that. Okay. But the whales altogether you can see in the past 24 hours.

All right, the big accounts, the smart money, most of the whales are handling a lot of money. That means that there is a higher probability they have some insider information or that they know what they are doing, right? So it's really good to watch them as a whole.

That's why we have this crypto whale alert and tracker on our website my cryptoaradise.com where also we are watching the individual whales right I'm actually not logged in right now but in the prop paradiser membership we have the weekly whale leaderboard where we basically nicely structured the whale like who is the best who is the worst so the whale tracker is good to be watched and monitored as a whole like all

the whales together and then individual ual whales that are actually performing individually very well at least like on one year perspective right because we understand everything below a year even sometimes two years you can be lucky basically right you can get lucky you can be winning a lot of time randomly we know that markets are very random so even on a bad trade you can win a lot of money the same

way as on a good trade you can lose a lot of money and as the same way as in the probability perspective when you start flipping a coin in the law of large numbers, right? You flip the coin 1,000 times. There is a section in this 1,000 of times phase where 20 30 times in a row you have hit tails in a row after you shot tails, tails, tails every single time.

Does it mean that one side has better odds? No. It's 50/50, right? But the randomness just give you the kind of impression if you look only at the shortterm time frame that one side has actually performing better. That is why every single trading strategy needs to be back tested at least on a three-year cycle.

All right, very important. So mostly buy in Wales, 60% buy in versus 34% selling. Clearly whales are supporting this V-shaped recovery, right? What we see in the live crypto and fear and greed index is that there are majority of the people are recovering from the fear mode and we are right now in neutral.

There is no greediness. There is no extra involvement of dump money aka retail money in this push to the upside. We can confirm it on the open interest. You can see that from multiple month perspective. We are actually at all-time low from open interest.

So not much leverage positions are involved in the market at this moment. Uh and that means that the dump money are not supporting this move. If the dump money are extremely overleveraged on one side and they are supporting some moves, we usually understand that because most of the people are already in, there's not much other people to keep on buying and the market then has a reversal, right?

However, right now we don't see some extreme leverage on some side one side or even an involvement of people on one side. Okay? Or any side to be honest. Right now the open interest is extremely low right now. So fear and greed also.

So not only that they are feeling neutral to kind of fearful but they are not even trading that much right now. So positions are very low. So that's increasing the probability that the move can continue to go higher. Let's take a look at the funding crates.

So the positions that are right now opened the leverage positions the futures positions right now we don't see some extreme crowdiness on one side. Okay. We can see actually from the funding history that we are at the 90day baseline. All right. Usually when we were touching this 90-day baseline at 0% it's usually worked as a bottoming signal.

All right. Right now we went slightly below it already. The opposite is the plus 10% where we have a long way to go. Right? So this is actually from the funding perspective bullish as well. We don't see some historic right now overleverageness or crowdiness on one side.

Okay. On the long side which is important for the bullish scenario right now. So long squeeze at this time can happen. All right. because we have some long squeeze probability but the context like how far can we go with this not very much given that the open interest is very low and the sentiment is right now neutral.

Basically the positions right now in the market might be a little bit crowded on one side on the 4hour time frame but in the context how far can get us this possible long squeeze is not very high because overall not much positions are right now in the market altogether.

Right? So context is extremely important. Always analyze the market as a whole. Take as much data as possible so you have the context proper when analyzing the market. And right now the context is not telling us there is some kind of powder enough for us to keep on pushing below the previous two lows.

However, if we take a look on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, we can see a massive crowdiness above us. Right? So at $85,000, there is a cluster of short positions right now, $1.9 billion. and then the second one around $88,000. So if you're for some reason in a short position, I would place the stop loss above $90,000, which is also the target, our target for the possible push to the upside, right?

For the possible final fifth wave. As we know, we have the resistance right here. As we can see, the cluster of short positions liquidations will be finishing at there. So if you're in a short position for some reason, at least place it to $90,000.

The same way if you are in a long position, having some last target or some target below $90,000 is also very smart, right? So let's take a look right now at the price action. Take a look at this. So this was the possible first degree wave, but it was actually only the first wave of the hard degree first wave.

Yeah. So then we have created the secondary wave which was this kind of shallow zigzag secondary wave. But what was most important that I wanted to see was the push of the third wave. All right. And it actually created something I wanted to see and that was the increasement of volume going above the moving average volume trend line when we start pushing above the previous high which is great.

And also what I wanted to see is that the third wave will not be the shortest one because that would broke one of the rules of alot wave theory. And we can see that the third wave from the actionary waves is not the shortest one because the fifth wave was an ending diagonal.

Okay. And it was much shorter than the third wave. So the hard degree first wave finished right here. Then we have started to create the secondary wave that finished at our support zone right here. That was the simple zigzag a B. We have got a nice triangle right here that separate itself into five more waves.

A B CDE E right. So that's a clear B wave and then the C wave. So A B C zigzag. Right? We have got a beautiful reaction from there from here supported by the whales supported by the smart money V-shaped recovery which is usual for the first wave of the hard degree third wave because we understand we are in the final fifth wave that's into five waves five sub waves right and

the third wave as a multi-wave structure also subat itself into five smaller waves so we are right now either finishing or have created the first wave and I really like how aggressive this one is after testing that support zone. So that's bullish. The third wave might finish at well we have two important resistances above us.

One is at $85,300. Second one is at $86,600. Really depends on the price action right now. If I place my trend line right here, trend lines are very important to be done the right way when analyzing. And the right way is connecting them as with much high points as possible at least three.

One, two, three, four, and then from the downside. Five. Yeah. So as much confluences as possible. So this is a great trend line and it's important to do it correctly because now we're going to copy the slope of the trend line. We will place it to the bottom of the secondary wave and now we have a possible channel where the price action might be consolidating without breaking the structure and the structure

is right now bullish. Okay. So we can also then confluence it as the price action develops with the resistances. Right. So here is a confluence. Here is a confluence. You can also nicely time it afterwards. So these points are extremely strong. The price action might look something like this right now.

As long as we can hold above this support zone which is at that $81,500 and $81,000. That's the upper and lower boundary. We are bullish. All right. And the price action might look something like this. One, two, then final three, four, five. All right.

The third wave often goes above the upper trend line. Yeah. Vicks above it. So the third wave seems like we'll be finishing at $86,600. Then we might do the fourth wave can be pretty shallow but long given that the secondary wave was very deep and short.

All right. So the fourth wave is usually the alternation of it. And then if we prolong this horizontal trend line higher, we know that the we we want the fifth wave to finish at that $90,000, right? Because that's going to be the next important resistance from the medium time frame perspective.

So then it can look something like something like this. Yeah. So this is the presume price action ladies gentlemen. Definitely it can change. That is why it's important to focus on the price action development. Yeah. And I'll keep you updated about it. So for now I'm bullish on the lower time frames still until we see a clear invalidation.

So either break in and reclaiming from below the bottom trend line of this channel that would increase the probabilities that this support is going to be broken as well or like this reclaiming from the below the the support I'm still bullish or breaking somehow the structure right now the structure from the lot perspective is still bullish.

So I am bullish on the lower time frame until I see clear invalidations and on the weekly time frame I'm still I'm still more bearish and I have still not reaccumulated with parallel VIPs. We have not yet reaccumulated the bitcoins back the ones you know that we were distributing at around 109 and below $121,000.

Then we were reaccumulating back something at around 71 and $61,000. I probably wasn't supposed to say that but you know that I've already told you that we have distributed most of the bitcoins that we were reaccumulating lower around this resistance right so we are still waiting for higher prices or I mean lower prices exchange of the hand zone phase as you know from the previous video or a clear invalidation and that

would mean we will start reaccumulating at higher prices. So ladies and gentlemen, it's all about your strategy. Focus on your strategy, on your process over and over again. You know, shortterm is very random. It's all about the winning streaks and losing streaks. Most of the time, your portfolio should not be moving and then it should be moving during the losing streaks and during the winning streaks.

And it's very important that if your strategy is good, you will lose less money during the losing streaks than what you will win during the winning streaks. patient. Focus on the process, not on the outcome. Right? Risk first, trade second, discipline, patience, and I will see you again on Thursday.

Cheers. Calm breath, clear now, right? No rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] M clean set