In short: Simon stays bearish. He says Bitcoin reclaimed 76,000 from below on weak bullish volume, flipping it to resistance, and the earlier buy walls were fake and pulled. With longs still crowded, he expects continuation toward the 69,000 and 64,000 support zone next.
Why is Simon bearish on Bitcoin right now?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon is bearish on weekly, daily and 4H. He says Bitcoin broke 76,000 after testing it four times, then reclaimed it from below on weak volume. That flipped 76,000 into resistance, confluenced with the VPVR.
He adds the earlier buy walls were spoofed and pulled, liquidating retail longs. For how the ParadiseTeam maps these zones, see the Bitcoin key levels page.
What price targets does Simon give below here?
Simon points to a 69,000 to 64,000 support zone as the next daily demand, with 69,000 as the upper boundary. He notes 64,000 has heavy VPVR volume from June 2026 plus the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Longer term he still watches a possible 44,000 exchange-of-hands zone, framing 55,000 to 44,000 as the macro area before any new high.
What is the funding and squeeze picture?
Simon says longs are still crowded. Funding sits around plus 10, and he notes the long squeeze probability reads 30 percent, with no large long squeeze yet. You can track positioning on the funding board.
He also flags no bullish divergence on RSI, bears controlling MACD below zero, and room to run more oversold on Stochastic RSI.
How did the ParadiseTeam position for this move?
Simon says the team shorted AVAX on Friday with 10x leverage and covered 64 percent profit. They also set a limit breaker on Bitcoin anticipating the breakdown and covered their target.
They remain mostly in USDT after reaccumulating Bitcoin near 61,000 and selling at 79,000. He stresses survival and risk management and position sizing over single signals.
Does Simon see any reason to turn bullish?
Not yet. Simon says the missing bullish divergence is the key tell, like a dog that is not barking. RSI prints lower lows and MACD legs point down below zero.
He would only shift if Stochastic RSI legs curl back up into the zone, signaling bears losing momentum. More of his breakdowns sit on the video hub.
Frequently asked questions
Is 76,000 support or resistance now?
Simon says 76,000 is now resistance. It held as support three times, broke on the fourth test, then got reclaimed from below on weak bullish volume. That confluences with the VPVR, which tells him high probability it holds as resistance with continuation to the downside.
Why does Simon call the demand fake?
Simon says market makers placed buy walls below 76,000 to create fake demand. Retail bought thinking it was real support. The makers used that buying liquidity as exit liquidity to short, then pulled the orders, liquidating longs and triggering a domino move to the downside.
Where is Bitcoin’s next support zone?
Simon marks 69,000 to 64,000 as the next daily demand and support zone, with 69,000 as the upper boundary. He notes 64,000 confluences with heavy VPVR volume from June 2026, historic price action, and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
What does the BlackRock wallet move mean?
Simon opens noting BlackRock-linked wallets moved 318 million dollars of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase in 30 minutes, raising a selling question. He frames the broader analysis around whether that pressure could push Bitcoin toward 69,000, then analyzes the probabilities from price action.
Is Simon still long-term bearish on Bitcoin?
Yes. Simon has been bearish since 121,000 and expects an impulse toward a 55,000 to 44,000 exchange-of-hands zone. He wants net profit and loss below the zero capitulation level, the pattern he says marks macro bottoms since 2011, before any new high.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
In the past 30 minutes, BlackRock Linked wallets have moved $318 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase. Are they planning to sell? And if they do, will that push Bitcoin all the way down to $69,000? Let's analyze the probabilities. Yello Ladies and Gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise.
Welcome back, it's Gert here, today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So in the previous video we have understood that with the highest probability the bibles below us are spoofed, right? That was the market manipulation that created this kind of fake demand and that also was the reason why retail went into long position.
It actually, however than only the retest that we want to see from the reclaim from below of this previous support into resistance that happened on low volume we will take a look at it in a minute on low volume and also afterwards the bears pulled the rug and as you can see the buy walls vanished and that was the reason why bitcoin could have done this beautiful move to the downside right
with We were prepared for that and you know that we have started to short some altcoin I've told you, we have started to short one altcoin on Friday. This altcoin was Avax I've told you about one altcoin, I've not told you about the name of the altcoin but I've told you we are shorting some altcoin, we have taken a look at the Bitcoin dominance in the previous video, I've told you that's
very bearish for the altcoins, what the Bitcoin dominance is doing, with the confluence of what the price of Bitcoin is doing. Money are flowing out of the market, which however, doesn't mean that the conditions, trading conditions are getting worse. They are actually getting better.
We are finally getting these kind of follow throughs, so it's much easier because it's the quarter four, right? What we have set about a quarter four is going to be great and the 2027 is going to be the best year in the past three years I absolutely am very excited about it so on the Avox we have taken profit we have went aggressive right because I've told you it's about go understanding
when you can go aggressive when you should be defensive we have entered with 10x leverage covered 64 % profit and we have also prepared ourselves for a breakout of that Bitcoin because we have understood with Dias probability that the demand is fake, the buy walls below us is spoofed, are spoofed and that is why we have created a limit breaker on Bitcoin and right now we have already covered our target too.
Let's take a look however what is gonna happen right now, what's gonna happen with Dias probability now ladies and gentlemen. So we have seen the probability of those buy walls I have told you was that they will be pulled, they got pulled. Let's take a look right now at this price action that actually get us Get us the nice nice confirmation from the price action Perspective because with this price action that
was the time for the bulls That was the opportunity for the bulls to take over but what happened ladies and gentlemen, we have seen a Proper reclaim from below of this support into resistance That is also why I've turned this level into a red color.
It's acting as a resistance right now. That's the important 76,000 there is as you can see it beautifully Confluenced with the VP VR very strong level very strong level because from the previous price action It was also working as a support below right now It's working after we have got the reclaim from below as a resistance.
All right, so take a look at the volume lady, gentlemen Barish volume on those two candles on the breakout below that seventy six thousand dollars and then the retest from below Alright of that seventy six thousand dollars. Take a look at the bullish volume that told me There is extremely high probability that this level will hold now as a resistance and there will be Continuation to the downside.
Okay, and as you can see there is let's take a look right now What is happening also with the momentum but from the price action perspective? If it's increasing the probability that we will push towards that sixty nine thousand dollars at least at least Because we understand that there is also one more support at 64,000 dollars as you can see Mega VP VR volume profile because here we have really exhausted a
lot of volume back in June 2026 so $64,000 conferencing beautifully with this VP VR and it's not only the historic price action and the VPVR confluence but also we have the Fibonacci retracement level there right which one well if you have watched the previous video you already know is the 0.786 the most important one Fibonacci retracement level right after 0.618 all right so as you can see it's perfectly confluencing with the
VPVR with the historic price action as well as you can see right here right here it was working as a resistance then as a support so important level all right so naturally we can expect that the 69 and 64 000 dollars they will be working as a proper support zone okay so i can put this right here turn it into a green color so you can clearly see this is going to
be acting as supports or with the most important level is the upper boundary that is that sixty nine thousand dollars ladies gentlemen so right now we are on the way to there right until we can get the back at the seventy six thousand dollars we the next important demand and support from the daily time from perspective is at sixty nine to sixty four thousand dollars so On the daily timeframe, as I've
been for a very long time, basically since we have touched 79,000 dollars, I'm still bearish, right? You know that the only time I've turned bullish was when was at 61,000 dollars. What I have told you at 61,000 dollars, that there is extremely high probability that Bitcoin will push towards 79,000 dollars.
That was our magical number, wasn't it? And what we have done with partisan VIPs afterwards, well, we have done in our Hartwell ad rotation the idea that was basically the most logical one the only logical idea was aggressively reaccumulate some of our bitcoins back right and then sell it back at $79,000 to USDT right and that's exactly what we have done then there was some fake price action above that $79,000 how
we have knew it was fake well first of all the volume the momentum was telling us it's fake then we have also looked at what the smart money is doing we have seen they are not the ones that are pushing the price up it's just it's just it's just being pushed on leverage which is borrowed money and who've been pushing that who have been pushing that retail right on the momentum indicators
MCP RSI intelligence and this is the superpower that a pro -parodysers have because they have this indicator that this injected with AI and they have seen exaggerated bearish divergence right three bearish divergences on every new high lady gentleman right so on this high on the fake push to above 79 000 dollars exaggerated bearish divergence on this high classic bearish divergence on this equal high exaggerated bearish divergence so that is also the
reason why we didn't why me myself at least and most of the team as well why we had not feel any formal right none of us actually none of us for felt formal because we have seen those science relations so even though when we pushed above that 79,000 hours we have understood we are probably just finishing the C wave of our expanded flat right ABC and there is no reason because we
understand this is just a corrective mode wave from the weekly timeframe perspective there is no reason to get bullish again so right now we can see sometimes what is the most important sign is when some sign is actually missing right sometimes the most important thing is when the dog is not barking right so right now what is missing is bullish divergence right so as you can see lower lows lower lows as
well on our RSI indicator so no bullish divergence and that is why there is not really a reason to play with bulls at this moment until I get some more confirmation yes you might say but look the on the on the MACD on the MACD indicator the histogram is creating higher lows so it's against the price action and I would tell you that's great but we are not AI just focusing straightly
on one signal right we are humans we are using our brain and we can see the things in context and we can understand the market cycles the price action and put it all in context so we understand that also one signal doesn't really make a difference if we can understand when it is happening and why is it happening right so again what is missing at this moment in order for me to
get bullish is a proper confirmation of this possible decreasement of bearish momentum. Right now I don't see a bullish cross as we have seen for example right here right back in June I don't see a bullish cross the both of the legs are looking to the downside below the zero level bears are fully in control ladies and gentlemen same with the stochastic RSI you might say but we are already overbought we
are I mean oversold We already oversold so we should buy now, but I would tell you no Because we need to understand how to read those stochastic indicators, right? So what would change my buy because we can stay oversold for a very long time We understand there is a lot of people that are still holding a lot of long positions, right?
So if you take a look at the funding crates, you can still clearly see the lungs are being crowded In fact, the long squeeze probability on Bitcoin is a 30 % at this moment as we take a look at the funding history We can see we are at plus 10 right in the past 90 days every time We weren't we went just slightly or 2 plus 10 percent We have got a
huge squeeze period afterwards at this moment. We have not seen a huge long squeeze period just yet alright so longs are being crowded and there is still like much more room to go to even more oversold on the stochastic RSI the only way that I would start turning bullish on this indicator would be if we would turn both of those legs into the zone back into the zone and they would be
into the upside that will tell me look now the bulls have opportunity to start taking over the bears are losing momentum all right quite a lot they the bears should have been pushing but they are not they are losing momentum bulls can start taking over but we don't have that yet all right we have got this we have got that right here back in September we have got that right here back
in August before the big push right we've got it right here as well Okay, we have not got it yet on the stochastic RSI. So knowing how to read those indicators is one of the key things of a provisional trader and then put it into a context, okay?
Very important, ladies and gentlemen. So let's take a look right now what's happening also on the 4R time frame. So on the 4R time frame, we can beautifully see this reclaim where basically the bulls what they have been doing. So, um, push below that 76 thousand dollars, key, previous support, it was a key support, it held once, twice, three times, and then on the fourth time it wasn't able to sustain anymore.
Alright, you know that usually when we touch some level four, three or four times, usually the third time or fourth time is going to be the breakout one, that it will not survive anymore, right? So it you can imagine like you have a hammer and you're smashing smashing some wall It's getting weaker and weaker a lot of people for some reason believe that the more some zone or Level is tested the
stronger. It actually is no It's actually getting weaker right the same way when you are smashing with the hammer a wall is getting weaker and weaker, right? and And on the next smash, it basically increases the probability that it is gonna break. The same way some important level in trading, the more you touch it, the weaker it gets and the probability increases that it will break, alright?
On the fourth touch, it broke. And then we have got the, because we always need to wait for confirmations, right? So we have got the retest from below the Reclaim from below right so and we have got it on No volume at all.
So take a look we are pushing into that level $76,000 take a look at the volume. All right another Push below it take a look at the volume and then we are trying the Bulls are trying to take over That level back and take a look at this like the volume was not existent.
It was below the It was below the moving average volume trend line, alright? This was their time to show how strong they are, the bulls. They showed us that they are extremely weak, right? And they are made out of retail. This was the basically buying power after a fake demand, right?
So the market makers, what they have done, they have put a fake demand below the price section below that $76,000 right the retail thought look this is the real demand right we are at support let's buy and then the market makers got that used that buying liquidity they have used it as a exit liquidity they started to short into that price action without creating any slippage because there was enough buying liquidity
and then they have they have they have rucked the price pulled out the buy orders and that's what created this nice push to the downsides these longs that were created right here by the retail got liquidated and that what we know is creating the domino effect and that's how this beautiful price action could have been created okay so ladies and gentlemen on the for our time frame I'm still bearish as I
have been in the previous video as well. So be careful we know that on the weekly time frame with DAIS probability we are creating the ending diagonal now you know that I've been bearish on Bitcoin since 121,000 dollars what we expect is this impulse towards the exchange of the hands -on 44,000 dollars right we are waiting for the net analyze profit and loss to go get below the zero capitulation level since
2011 that was every time how the market bottom the macro market bottom have been created all right has been created so we need to always make the bad risk managers to start realizing their losses so the smart money can absorb that selling pressure right then when we watch the price action it slows down it doesn't create such aggressive lower lows right we start to create equal lows and that's how the macro
button has been always created since 2011 right here right here right here right here and so far ladies gentlemen we are not yet below the zero capitulation we know that the bad risk manager that is handling micro strategy still handling a lot of is still having a lot of Bitcoin we still have a lot of bad Bitcoin mining companies that were created back in after a crash in 2022 so they have
not experienced any bullbar a bear market proper bear market yet and all of these need to be liquidated and completely out of the market right we need to do this kind of purge every single time the purge needed to happen since 2011 we need to get rid of those bad risk managers and only the smart traders and smart risk managers that are focusing on the Black Swan events with their trading strategies
will survive all right every single time so we have not yet went through it we can see some realization realization of losses is happening again but we need to go below the zero capitulation level to create the proper environment for the macro bottom creation so you can see we still quite a long way down to go right so it kind of confluence and with the possibility that 44 000 dollars really will
be touched before we can start pushing towards the new ultim high that we believe is going to be at 169 000 dollars for the reasons i've explained to you in previous videos take a look back in 2022 the exchange of the hand zone was at 24 to 16 thousand dollars now I do believe the exchange of the hand zone is going to be at 55 to 44 thousand dollars so with parallel
assembly VIPs we are prepared for that we are still mostly in USDT the only time we were aggressively re -accumulated something and it was aggressive re -accumulation because we were planning to sell it aggressively all right we were not planning to hold it long term towards that new all -time high one $169,000 so we have reaccumulated aggressive and sold it again at $79,000 alright so right now we are mostly in USDT
yeah so be careful ladies and gentlemen I'm bearish on weekly daily and for our time frame as well in the next video we will take a look also at the one hour time frame and maybe also on the 15 many time frame all right but now the video would be already too long what you can understand is that I mean what is important to understand is that with the highest probability the
expanded flat is already finished by the C wave the final fifth wave being created right here that 87 thousand dollars and right now we might be creating already the first wave that might take us towards 69 to 64 thousand dollars I do believe this is going to be the first proper from daily time from perspective and then I will be looking for the corrective secondary wave if that's gonna happen ladies and
gentlemen this will be a very nice opportunity from a swing plus trading perspective to take a look at some new short position because we will be catching big in in in an anticipation to catch the next big move that I will believe will create a new lower low all right so ladies and Take care, trade safe with your professional trading strategy because if you don't have a strategy then your strategy is
to fail and focus on risk management, that's the most important stuff. If you don't focus on the survival you will never be able to get the fruits of your trading strategy during the good times. Every trading strategy has some bad times and some good times.
If you will not be focusing on survival during the bad times you will blow out right and you will not be able to Experience the good times of your trading strategy. So as you know Every single trade that we take with our trading tactics within the trading strategy we should treat as a one -night stand because short term is volatile and random and The trading strategy and trade -in system.
We are playing with we should be treating as a marriage we need to be loyal to it so we can survive the bad times and then experience the good times together right so be loyal to your trading strategy be loyal to your trading system only focus on the high probability trades with greater risk reward focus on your trading tactics and I will see you again on Thursday, take care, Cheers!
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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