In short: Simon stays bearish on Bitcoin across weekly, daily and 4H timeframes. Longs are crowding into a key resistance made of the 0.786 Fibonacci while 67% of whales sold in the past 24 hours. He reads this as silent distribution and will treat recoveries toward 90,000 as shorting chances, not longs.
Why is Simon still bearish on Bitcoin?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon stays bearish on the weekly, daily and 4H timeframes. Bitcoin sits at support but keeps printing lower highs. He has been bearish since 121,000 on the weekly and reads this as a late corrective wave, not a fresh bull leg.
On his Bitcoin key levels map the bigger trend can still push higher in the short run. Yet he treats upside recoveries as shorting opportunities, not reasons to buy.
What do the funding rates and squeeze odds show?
Open interest is barely moving, but longs keep piling in on the funding rates board. Simon flags a 30% long squeeze probability, which he calls substantial for the current market. Funding sits near a 90 day high, plus 10% from history.
He notes that almost every time funding briefly pushed above that line in the past 90 days, a big squeeze followed. The one anomaly was a plus 20% spike on July 16th 2025.
So he is careful with high leverage longs here and does not expect funding to keep cooling while sentiment climbs.
Why are 67% of whales selling into this support?
Simon’s whale tracker shows 67% of whales selling in the past 24 hours, close to extreme over the last 90 days. The previous three days ran 58% selling, so the distribution is not a one day event.
He frames this as silent distribution. Whales get liquidity to offload bags from leverage buyers, so price barely moves while retail aggressively buys into resistance.
That resistance is the 0.786 Fibonacci zone, backed by a moving average trend line and high volume profile. His position sizing guide frames why he waits for confirmation.
What does the Binance hack tell us about the drop?
Simon compares the Binance hack to past heists at Bybit, Coincheck and MT Gox. At the event Binance dropped only about 4.3% to 6%, with Coincheck and MT Gox near 1%.
The bigger moves came later. Around 7 to 14 days after, Bybit kept crashing and Coincheck fell about 21%. Both hacks landed at a demand zone and moving average line, much like now.
A 73 million dollar buy wall sits at 76,000, marking a major demand zone that absorbed the panic. Simon stresses the direction is market cycles, not the news.
Where could Bitcoin go next?
Simon sees a possible push toward 90,000 before the larger drop, with a 90 to 91 thousand exit target if confirmations line up. But he will only long on a clean five wave volume impulse above resistance.
His downside roadmap runs toward the 55,000 exchange of hands zone, then 44,000 with the highest probability. Until then he treats recoveries as shorting setups on the daily timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Is Simon bullish or bearish on Bitcoin right now?
Simon is bearish on the weekly, daily and 4H timeframes. He has been bearish since 121,000 on the weekly. Although the bigger trend could still push higher in the short run, he treats upside recoveries as shorting opportunities and will not long without a clean volume impulse above resistance.
What does 67% of whales selling mean?
It means that over the past 24 hours, 67% of the whales Simon tracks were net sellers, close to extreme over 90 days. The previous three days showed 58% selling. He reads this as silent distribution, where whales offload into retail leverage buying without moving price much.
What is the long squeeze probability Simon mentioned?
Simon cited a 30% long squeeze probability, which he calls substantial for the current market. Funding sits near a 90 day high, around plus 10% from history. He warns that almost every recent push above that level led to a big squeeze, so he avoids high leverage longs.
Why did Bitcoin not drop hard after the Binance hack?
Simon says a 73 million dollar buy wall at 76,000 marks a major demand zone that absorbed the panic. Past hacks at Bybit and Coincheck also landed at demand zones and dropped little at first, then crashed heavily 7 to 14 days later. He expects the pattern may rhyme.
Where could Bitcoin go next according to Simon?
Simon sees a possible push toward 90,000, with a 90 to 91 thousand exit target if confirmations appear. His downside roadmap runs toward the 55,000 exchange of hands zone, then 44,000 with the highest probability. He waits for a five wave volume impulse before trusting any upside.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
MyCryptoParadise's fear and greed index is recovering from fear territory and Bitcoin is at support. Does that shift the odds towards a bounce? Or could this support still fail? Let's analyze the probabilities. Yello Ladies and Gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise. Welcome back, it's great to be here today, it's Tuesday.
and death meter to watch in the first video of this week so we'll go through multi time frame analysis on Bitcoin first of all we will talk briefly about the weekly time frame you know that I'm bearish here on the daily time frame you know that I'm bearish here as well on the for our time frame let's talk about it alright so first of all let's let's take a look what's going
on behind the scenes so open interest we will clearly see that open interest is not moving much but the longs are piling in and it's visible on the funding crates alright so let's try to understand the context longs are starting to get crowded we have a 30 % long squeeze probability which for the current market is quite substantial alright so longs are being crowded we are at 90 day high we are
at plus 10 % from the funding history most of the times when we went briefly above it afterwards we have seen a big crash right in the past 90 days almost every single time right now we are already briefly above it there was one anomaly or how we are calling it as professional traders black swan where we went up to plus 20 percent that was back in July July 16th 2025 however
alright so that's quite some time ago but in the past in the past multiple months you see clearly that every time we went breathe above it then we have seen a big squeeze so I would be careful obviously with long positions with high leverage long positions at this moment and I don't believe that the funding rates will start to keep going down right why not because the fear and greed index on
the daily time frame we can see that we are still kinda in a we are going we are recovering from the fear mode we are in an outro right now but if we shift our focus on the lower time frames we can clearly see what's happening and what is happening on the lower time frames is that the sentiment is improving substantially without and here is the context without the price action of
Bitcoin doing much right so as you can see so far we are creating lower high and we have done a little move from this support around 1.7 % and the sentiment improved from fear on the one hour timeframe 23 points which is the magical which is very close to the magical number 20 on our fear and greed index 260 all right and we are going close to our magical number 8 which
if you can confluence it with some important resistance which we can right now as you can see on the four time frame we are touching the important resistant zone the lower boundary of that resistance zone to be absolutely correct, which is made out of 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
All right. And previously, as you can see, it was working. It was working right here as a support and then as a resistance after it got broke to the upside. Right. And this zone overall, this overall zone is also for multiple multiple weeks already working as a very strong point of control zone right so the upper boundary worked as a support multiple times before it got finally broken to the downside previously
it was working as a resistance as you can see right here very important medium time frame zone and right now on the lower boundary we don't have just the 0.7 86 Fibonacci to retracement level. We also have this moving average trend line right at that lower boundary.
We also have a high VPVR volume profile right here. This gap above it, a huge volume. So very important zone and for the market makers, for the bulls, for the bulls, for the market makers, it's not, this is not the path of least resistance as you can clearly see.
This is a huge resistance at this moment that was already tested and retested as a resistance previously it was working as a support, right and For the market makers it makes and therefore not much sense To push above it at this moment because the path of lead resistance is not in that direction so Strong resistance for the bulls.
It's going to be very tough not to crack. Do we have some bulls around? yes we do right so who is making the bulls smart money or dump money is it the money with that's controlling a lot of money in the current circulation in our crypto market in our beautiful crypto market or are these bulls actually made out of the dump money that has a lot of participation right made out of
a lot of participants that are however controlling a little amount of money. And based on the sentiment we can right now see, given that we are taking this sentiment from social media where the retail is being very active, social media and other indices that I cannot reveal, but basically we can clearly see that the sentiment around retail is improving drastically without the price actually doing some drastic moves right so they are
pushing into resistance so they are aggressively buying into resistance without being able to push the price above at least the lower boundary so far of that resistance right so somebody on the is actually absorbing that buying pressure well and if we take a look at our MyCryptoParadise whale tracker we can clearly see that if we take as a pack the whales the smart money we can clearly see they are selling excessively
67 % selling 67 % of whales selling in the past 24 hours if you are watching these videos and this page on daily basis you can see that this is close to getting extreme from the past from the past 90 days right what about the previous three days evenly split but still much more selling 58 % of selling so you can see that the selling from the smart money aka from the
whales is continuing for For some time it's not just the day, but for some time they are already mostly selling. How they are getting the liquidity to dump their bags without moving the price much, without creating this kind of slippage, without dropping the price below this support.
While they are getting the liquidity, it seems like from the leverage buying, from the dump money that are allowing them to dump their bags without moving the price much. So it's this kind of silent distribution, right, under the radar. So it doesn't mean that the price needs to go down right now, but it is definitely, at least for me as a professional trader, doesn't give much confidence that this resistance will be
broken to the upside. So at this moment it doesn't make sense for me to try and create a long position in a hope that this resistance is going to be broken to the upside, right? So if I would start getting into a long position, as I've already explained to you in the previous video, I want to see a nice impulse above this resistance with increasing volume and And so far what we
can see is that on the, as they are trying, the bulls are trying to recover back above this resistance, the volume is fading, right? The volume is fading. So we are, we have seen big volume right here, that was during the Binance hack, right?
We have seen a nice volume, sell -in volume that pushed us below this zone, right? it was previously a golden ratio and on the attempt of a recovery we see the bullish volume is much lower right so until I see a nice volume impulse above this resistance impulse as you know from our MCP free University is a sub Duarin itself into five small waves.
It's a motive wave motive motor wave structure and It would tell me look the medium time frame trend Which as you can see the bigger trend is a still up right now on the forward time frame We don't have a clear trend right?
But the bigger trend is a still up and as you know from the previous analysis there is still a high possibility that if we are able to recover and right now still this structure is bullish until we can break below the fourth wave right the previous low of the fourth wave there is still high probability given that we are holding the top of the first wave so let me repeat it for
you one more time right now the fourth wave well let's take it from the and then so just quick recapitulation right here I was bullish $61,000 I've told you I'm gonna be bullish until $79,000 with ParadiseFamilyVIP we have started to redistribute the Bitcoin back to USDT so here we were accumulating at $61,000 here actually we have already been bullish here at $61,000 we were accumulating because we have spotted that this ABC
is already done we have started to new ABC within our ending diagonal on the weekly time frame, we know that we are bearish since $121,000 right? Right now we are in the 5th wave that Vivdai's probability is going to be an ending diagonal.
What do we know about ending diagonal? That it subdivide itself into far smaller waves. Vivdai's probability right now, we are creating one of these and which one? Well we have already completed the first one, right? So that is this one, one, right, two, this one.
and right now we are creating the third one. Then the fourth wave should take us to the upper boundary of this exchange of the hands zone. If you don't know what I mean by exchange of the hands zone, watch the previous videos, which is at around 55.000 dollars, right?
And then Zig and FinalZach with the highest probability towards 44.000 dollars. Before we go back to the daily time frame, where I will actually explain to you that with the highest probability right now we are in the final sea wave so why we went where bullish right here based on our confirmations right this was a corrective Mach wave structure a wave B wave and right now we are in a sea wave
that might take us still until we break below of that fourth wave towards a $90,000 right why is this fourth wave so important because we are in a process of creating an impulse of this corrective sea wave so one two three four five the fifth wave is also an impulse we have got one two right here as you can see we are holding above the top of the first wave three and
right now still this can be the fourth wave of the higher degree fifth wave if we can recover right we can push up to ninety thousand dollars before the larger drop that is coming with the highest probability right so that is the reason why I'm still bully a bearish on the daily time frame even though there is a possibility of pushing towards 90,000 there is I will be treating the recoveries the
upside recoveries as shorting opportunities with bearish trading tactics I will be treating it let's right now take a look at what is the reason that after a Binance hack And we have already bite into it a little bit in the previous video after Binance's act Why we have not dropped more, right?
Well, we can take a look at what happened in the past when some of other exchanges got hacked, right? So Binance is not the first exchange that got hacked the major Other three exchanges that got stolen most of the crypto in the past they were by bit coin check and MT Gox.
Binance the biggest the biggest highest right that was around at 6 billion dollars by bit not a small one 1.5 billion dollars coin check and MT Gox then it was around 500 million dollars but let's see what happened after after like during the during the hack after and then after the hack some days after the hack okay because not only it's important to understand what happened after the hack immediately after and
then some days after and some months after but also the time when it happened where the market structure was okay so first of all let's take a look at the similarities of what happened from the Bitcoin perspective right at the time of the crash so Binance dropped by around four to six percent right by bid dropped around so it's it's not much it's very small if you if you think about it
after such bearish news right huge hack right and this was also back then by bid hack was the biggest heist in in the history before right so you need understand the the history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes and we need to understand the context right right now the market is again much more mature there is more like money in and also Binance is the biggest exchange right volume volume volume
wise so 4.3 4.3 to 6 % drop not much Buybit also it wasn't much. CoinCheck also not much. MTGox also not much. CoinCheck and MTGox both around 1 percent. But what started to happen seven days later, one month after, all right? Then the craze started to get a little bit more acceleration, right?
Buybit after seven days of that hack and it's around roughly 7 to 14 days after the crypto started to crash much more heavily right coin check minus 21 % empty Gox minus here we have actually got plus all right but you need to understand that the empty Gox from the time of the incident there well if you if you don't know what happened with the MT Gox go and read about it
because it wasn't exactly the same way that the coin check or buybit or Binance got hacked. So it was this kind of silent hack that got actually triggered in the market after multiple months. So this is just important I've put here the MT Gox Just to understand that at the at the event it didn't crash much only 1 % Okay, but then the coin check and buy bit had that was the
proper hacks and you can clearly see the similarities All right, almost nothing at the event, right? and then it started to accelerate by bit the same thing and Binance we can assume that the same thing is gonna happen as well because if we take a look at when it actually happened the heck.
We can see that the buy bid and coin check it happened exactly at around that moving average trend line and after some important rejection from some resistance right. So here the buy bid hack happened and it didn't crash that much in in the first couple of days because we were at a heavy demand zone.
If we take a look right now below us on our order book we can clearly see that below us there is 73 million dollar buy wall at 76,000 dollars. Why is that? Because we are at a major demand zone. Okay if we are at the major demand zone the same way we were during the buy bid hack and the same way we were during the coin check hack that happened back in
2022, right? So, take a look at this, it precisely happened at the move in a very strange line, demand zone. So, obviously the hack happened, right? There was panic in the market, but it got absorbed by the demand, technical demand that was there already before and it wouldn't move even if there would be, I don't know, some…
another crazy event even crazier than the heck, okay? So you need to understand that news are one thing, they work as a catalyst, but the market liquidity and the order flow is happening no matter what the news are, alright? No matter what the news is, the order flow and the market direction and the market cycles Will do the same thing even with or without the news the short term is affected by
the news But overall the long run It's it gets even out yet the news so What happened however was the sentiment right so then when? So basically the sentiment got quite bullish as it is right now in the short run as you can see people people feel like look it's doing nothing like a huge hack but the market is so bullish that that all of that panic got eaten out let's long
right the market is going up the it's extremely bullish nobody is bearish basically Bitcoin didn't move for almost at all let me long right so the sentiment is improving like very rapidly very rapidly the same the same way as you know we were together you and me we were there in 2018 we have been watching that together we have seen it the sentiment the same way was improving in the short run
rapidly as well and then the market dropped below the moving average trend line right the same way or the buy bit after a buy bit hack it was the same thing it was the same thing again I'm not sharing the MT Gox hack because read about it that was basically extended to a big period of time it wasn't exactly so clear as the coin check and buy bit hack like hack bank
crypto crypto stolen and game over okay so look buy bit hack as well from the short run from the short term perspective almost almost no drop at all then we have got from the lower time frame perspective a little bit of recovery right and then the crash happened okay so right now we can see that the hack happened again above the moving average trend line right here a little bit of panic
it got eaten out because there is a lot of demand a lot of buying liquidity below us so right now the market is recovering a little bit well and let's see what's gonna happen in the next couple of days I am bearish on the weekly time frame and not only because of that also because of the other stuff but the important thing that I've shared with you in the previous videos but
the important thing ladies and gentlemen is what happened after right once we started to crash people started to say oh we are crashing because of the biped hack right it's because of the biped hack and then people here as well well it's because of the coin check hack, we are going down because people are panicking because the coin check hack.
No! If you remember, I've been calling with the ParadiseTeam already here, that the bull market is over, right? Here as well, back in 2018, we were calling that already right here, we are entering a bear market but only then when finally people have something to point their finger to they start to blame the news and they don't learn it's the market cycles it's the technical it's the order flow it's the behind
the scenes it's the liquidity that is making the market it's not the news all right so let's focus on the process let's focus on the process as a professional traders if we want to have continuous edge in the market when we open and close our trades we need to focus not on the news like right on the emotional stuff basically we need to focus on the process so we need to find
some edge in our trading and then keep on trading with it and repeat it over and over and over again right It's just about understanding that the market is performing certain repeated actions that we can call fractals, for example. It's this kind of some patterns, like it's following the path of least resistances.
You need to pay attention what the liquidity is doing because the price is attracted to it right etc and then we can when we can put it all in context we can get an edge in our trading strategy and then we just open the trades when the edge is on our side sometimes we lose right because the short term can be random but we will always limit our loss when the black
swans happen right and a lot of people think that the black swans are just negative no it can be positive the Black Swans can be positive as well and if our trading strategy is correctly set up we will actually be profitable on the Black Swans, we will be able to maximise our profits on the Black Swans when other people are actually losing everything on the Black Swans, right?
So Black Swans are these kind of rare events that really change the game. They happen very rarely but they completely transform the game from the proficient traders and the unprofessional traders the pro unprofessional traders they usually win small but very frequently and then when the black swan event hit hits they lose a lot right and the professional traders that's the opposite right we usually lose small right so our when if you
don't watch your dopamine we you you don't have a certainty about your training strategy you can go below the Baseline and it feels bad. That's why unprofessional traders. They are not able to trade with professional trading strategies It's not only boring, but it's also paid for to your brain, right?
So professional traders they lose small amount of money most of the time break even a small amount of money and then when the black swan events hits and can be during like some rare events or When there is like a rare winning streak happening.
We win a lot of money in a short period of time So it's the opposite and if you take a look there are studies done in Like They were watching the professional poker players, and it's the same thing right the tourists That's just play poker for fun.
They bluff most of fun, and they get the small stakes So most of the hands they win small small amount of chips and when they lose however They lose big the professional players most of the time they fold when they have bad cards right so they are not being involved so it's like the professional professional traders we are able to be patient to wait for our trading setup before we start risking
our chips right so and so we lose small or we are sidelines break even right because I break even we cut our losses quickly and then when they won they won a lot okay so there's the there's a lot of similarities between professional poker and professional trading so if you want to master trading I would I would first try to master poker because it's very similar and if you want to be
good in business as well poker is such a great game to teach you to be very go big on risk when the opportunities are on your side. When you have the opportunity you need to go aggressive and when there is no opportunity you're being able to stay out of the game and defend what you have right now, defend your business.
So Bokker is an amazing game. So on the weekly timeframe I'm still bearish, you know the probability is right where we can go before we will push to the downside. I will not repeat that. On the daily timeframe the same thing and right now on the forward time frame I think we have pretty much went through it right so you understand that right now the funding rates are quite scary all right
and until I can see the push to the upside which would be the first motive mode wave structure five sub waves all right lower time frame sub waves above the resistance with increase in volume all right and then And secondary wave, the corrective mode wave structure with decline in volume, I will not place a long, personally, at least, alright?
In Prairie Race team we are multiple traders, everybody is trading with a different tactic so I cannot speak for other traders in my team, but I can speak for myself given that I'm focusing on swing, longer term swing trading, alright, for me. If I would if I would start catching if I would start catching the move towards that ninety thousand dollars I first want to see that indeed we are finally finishing
this overly zigzag fourth wave which is however usual but this is already starting to get into extremes on how slow this price action is in that fourth wave all right so I would first want to see a resolution of that fourth wave I want to see a nice move above that resistance zone five sub waves in it which would tell me all right a motive wave structure is being formed all right
that would tell me because the fifth wave is an impulse motive wave structure it's about itself into far smaller wave so I want to see the first smaller wave of that fifth wave to be an impulse and then the secondary wave right here to be a corrective mode wave.
So reactionary wave needs to be corrective if it's going to be a zigzag usually it's a zigzag and I will see that the lower boundary or upper boundary so it can also go a little bit higher right and then the upper boundary will hold as a support I will place a nice long position with a great risk reward you know that the invalidation will be able to be quite tight and the
final exit target would be quite nice at around at 90 to 91 thousand dollars right so that's that's a nice risk reward if I will get the confirmations it will also be a very high probability trading signal where I will have the edge on my side so I will definitely put my risk on the table I would definitely risk then it really depends on how aggressive I would get but that really
depends on how much I like the price action and how many probability points I get in my confirmations right so everybody is trading with a different trading tactic if you have a great trading tactic you know exactly how much to risk on each trade and then basically the key thing for long term profitability is to maximize your profitability when you are correct on your trading idea and minimize your losses when you
are wrong on your trading idea. That's the core thing of trading, that's the key for long term profitability. It's boring for many people but it's like if you find another hobby where you really get the endorphin rush right where you get the higher dopamine firing rate then you don't need to seek it from trade -in right so I think that's important that's important a lot of people suddenly they start to trade
because they are bored or they don't know what to do with their money and then they are just acting like a gambler in the market and then they have the results as getting blown right. Sometimes they win big sometimes they lose a lot it's very exciting because it's random it's uncertain if it's going to be a big win or a big loss that's what keeps them hooked right because of the uncertainty
because of the dopamine rush and in the long run however the curve is third outside because they are not trading with any edge. So ladies gentlemen you know exactly what we are watching right now I have not talked about this but basically what sometimes the dog that didn't bark is important alright in the night so what we are missing on this low we can call it the double bottom but what we
are missing is some clear bullish divergence as you can see the bullish divergence is not there right this is slightly higher low on the RSI indicator Harilo as well, no edge, bearish but firm in, for me this is not a proper edge and we can see that there are some longs coming in which is usually quite bullish right, but we need to understand who is great in those longs and we have
already understood the dumb money not the smart money, sometimes this is bullish when you can time it well as you can see right here when there is a lot of longs going in but you need to be able to confluence it with other signals then we can have a very nice pushes the upside right because the smart money were actually opening the smart money was actually opening the long positions right now
I don't I don't have such confirmation that the smart money is actually entering the longs as we have already explained so I'm being careful with my long positions so ladies and gentlemen trade safe trade with professional trading strategy if I will open if I decide to open if I decide to open a long position you will know about it in Paradisum VIP if you are in pro -paradisum membership you have extraordinary
insights that help you to understand what's going on in the market so I hope that you are safe and that you are playing with a great edge you're not a gambler you are a professional trader and I will see you again on Thursday Until then, take care, cheers.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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