Bitcoin: With 92% of Crypto Long, Is It a Rejection or a Squeeze at Resistance?

Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.

92% of the current crypto market has positive funding [music] rates. Retail is getting extremely greedy as Bitcoin is approaching its very important resistance. How is the upcoming price action going to react to all of these confluences? >> [music] >> Let's analyze the probabilities.

>> My Crypto [music and singing] Paradise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen of My Crypto Paradise. This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week.

So, previously we have been understanding that with the highest probability we will start pushing to the upside, right? There are multiple confluences and we also understood that there is a very low probability that the market will see continuation in this bearish price action.

Henceforth, the higher probability was that we will start seeing a reversal. As you can see on the 4-hour time frame right now, we are seeing the reversal from almost that $57,500 support that we have been taking a look at. There are multiple confluences.

There were lots of those buy walls, etc., right? That we have been watching right here. Well, and right now we will be trying to understand what is going to happen next because in fact we are actually seeing the opposite signals of what helped us to understand that with the highest probability we will start seeing a reversal to the upside, all right?

So, we are seeing opposite signals right now on the medium time frame. So, first of all, let's very quickly go through the open interest. So, what we have been understanding that basically on the price action to the downside, the open interest has been increasing.

We have seen that the futures are actually pushing this final drive to the downside. Together with that, we have seen a buy walls below us defending the price action. So, we have understood the basically this kind of dynamic between smart money and retail.

And we have also understood that this final price action to the downside is driven more by retail. Henceforth, there is much lower probability of continuation to the downside. also because we have seen the smart money actually absorbing the selling pressure. We have been taking a look at the bullish divergences and the momentum of the bears, etc.

All of these confluences basically helped us to understand that there has been absorption going on and the smart money are the ones that are actually defending the price from going further to the downside and hence forth the price action to the downside was pushed by retail and that means that basically with the highest probability you will start seeing a reversal on the medium time frame.

So, we have seen the reversal and right now, what can we see? That the open interest been getting liquidated, right? The funding craze basically went back to almost neutral. Well, and right now we can see that the open interest is again increasing, all right?

And we can actually see on the cumulative volume delta that actually futures are pushing the market right now. We can see it on the CVD flow dominance as well. Futures are pushing the market. So, basically futures pushed market right here. Then they have got liquidated on the price action right here.

Well, and from here they've already started to push to the upside. So, that means from $60,900, what we can understand hence forth that right now retail is getting back after they have got burnt right here on shorting. They have got liquidated and right now they are predicting that the market is going to go much higher, right?

So, retail is right now pushing the buy button. What we can see on the live crypto fear and greed index on our website marketreparer.com is the confirmation of it on the 4-hour time frame, on the medium time frame, aka we can see that the market is starting to get greedy.

We can also confirm that on our funding craze. Again, you can find it on our website that 89% right now. It's dropped already by 3% since the intro. 89% since majority, huge majority of the crypto market is right now having positive funding. That's just confirms that retail is not only long in Bitcoin, but also pushing the buy button on altcoins as well.

So, we can see that the funding rates are basically heating up, right? We can see a lot of positive numbers. It's nothing crazy, right? So, it's nothing crazy yet, all right? So, we can see a 15% squeeze probability, but if you take a look at the lower time frames and you understand that right now we are in a sideways sideways movement, you can also kind of understand that 15 to 20% is

already quite a lot, all right? And given that also 88% right now of the crypto market is having a positive funding rate, that gives like the market makers some kind of fuel to push the market in an opposite direction, right? And to make money on it because the slippage will be lower.

We don't see like a huge sell walls above us. There are some, right? But it's nothing crazy like what we have been getting below us previously, but they are appearing, all right? And we can see, if we take a look right now on the price action, we will check if we are creating some kind of bearish divergence because if we are, we will really confirm the opposite of what we have been

getting right here back at around that $57,000, all right? So, in this video, we will go through daily and 4-hour time frame in the previous video we have been going in depth in through the weekly time frame and what we expect from the macro analysis.

Nothing changed pretty much. Uh let me just repeat it very quickly. So, you know that with the highest probability on the weekly time frame, we are creating the ending diagonal. The price action might look something like that. The exchange of the hands will then happen at 55 to $44,000 right now.

So, right now we are with the highest probability at this secondary wave, aka XL, because this is going to be an ending diagonal of that market. But when we take a look at this, these kind of fractals repeating really across the market. So, you can see this final fifth wave with the highest probability is going to be an ending diagonal and what we have had on the 4-hour time frame also the

final leg of this structure also been behaving as an ending diagonal. We have been talking about it in the previous video, right? So, we have got 1 2 3 4 and because the third one was an extended one same as this one on the weekly time frame that moved from 95 to $59,000.

Henceforth, we have understood that the with the highest probability the final fifth wave is going to be an extended one and have the price action very nicely visible and we will create it we will create the ending diagonal where it subdivides itself into that five smaller waves, right?

So, we have got exhale exhale third exhale then we have got fourth and final fifth. That's what we have been talking about. So, this is the ending diagonal that we are actually predicting might happen on the weekly time frame as well. It's not certain it's going to happen like that, but it's very likely given that we understand what actually needs to happen before we get that macro bottom, right?

We have been talking about it in the previous video. So, you understand exactly what needs to happen on this chart etc. I will not be repeating that in this one. So, let's have a look right now on the daily time frame with that understanding we understand that with the highest probability we will right now start seeing a push to the upside, but it's going to be just a corrective wave aka an

an exhale which might take us up to $79,000. You know, all of the confluences that we are really seeing at that $79,000 be that Bitcoin CME futures gap be that confluence of multiple Fibonacci retracement levels from multiple time frame analysis be the VPVR be the price action historic price action etc, right?

And it's also the first wave of the previous motive wave structure. So, a lot of confluences at 79,000 there is, but can we get there? Well, [clears throat] we don't have from the daily perspective that much of confirmations to be very confident in in saying that yes, right?

Like we have 90% chance of going there, all right? But it's building. It's building and I will explain to you why it is building right now. So, what we know about about right now the formation of the leg to the upside, which is the secondary wave of that hard degree ending diagonal, is that with the highest probability it's going to have formation of an flat, right?

So, so far the flat pattern and we do we know that with the highest probability if it's going to be a flat, it's going to be an expanded flat where the C wave goes way beyond the end of the A wave, right? And what we know about A wave and B wave in an expanded flat is that like both of them are exhales, so free wave structures, ABC ABC, where the final

C wave of the ABC finished like that ending diagonal, that means right here. And what we know about about the final C wave is that it's actually an inhale. That's why a lot of people going to get tricked right here in thinking that we going to continue to the upside because it looks like an impulse, right?

Which is usual in bull trends, but it's just part of the hard degree exhale. That's why we are doing multi time frame market analysis to understand what's going on on the hard degree perspective and then for of it we might understand what's the causes of the lower degree perspective, right?

So, right now we are waiting for a confirmation of the first inhale of that impulse and that subdivide itself into five smaller waves as well. So, if you will start seeing that we are creating five smaller waves on the lower time frame right here, all right?

Then it will be very very likely that we will start creating the secondary wave and then the then the third wave. That might push us up to $70,000, right? And then the final fifth wave must take us up to $79,000. So, right now more confirmations are needed, but are we getting already those five waves on that lower degree perspective?

We will take a look at it in a minute on 4-hour time frame. But first of all, let's have a look what's going on on the daily time frame because on the daily time frame, you might feel from the way I'm talking about the current price action that I'm extremely bullish on the daily time frame, but I'm not just yet.

All right? I'm not just yet because I see a lot of things that might be very beneficial for bears if they want to get the market back in their hands, right? So, first of all, we are right now visiting the very important revisiting the very important moving average trend line on the daily time frame that already held Bitcoin as a resistance previous two times.

But what we know about resistances is that the more we push into them, the weaker they get, right? So, really, three, four touch is usually the one that breaks, but until we can get like successful reclaim, you know that a lot of traders, they are just waiting for a breakout and then they start buying.

Well, on the weekly time frame, why that been very drastic for most of them is because we have done exactly that, but there was no confirmation. So, they started to long heavily and buy back heavily before confirmation. Well, and the market then crashed back, right?

Because this breakout above this moving average trend line wasn't confirmed. So, what I'm waiting for as a professional trader is actually confirmation of that breakout before I can call it a successful reclaim of the moving average trend line rather than fake out. Because right now, first of all, we are not breaking through it just yet, but even if we would start to, fake outs are really likely in this low liquidity market

currently, right? So, you know that waiting for proper confirmations is really going to pay off most of the times right now in this current market situation because most of the retail is not around anymore, right? So, like not that much of a dumb money is in the market at this moment.

So, the follow-up after breakouts, right, is basically very like it's less likely than if we have like markets when there is a lot of retail involved, etc., right? Because most of the times retail sees a breakout and they they start pushing heavily the buy button.

But, given that right now there is almost no retail in the markets, right, we are at all-time lows in that. You know that liquidity is at all-time lows. So, henceforth, waiting for reclaims, proper reclaims, is so much more important. So, what I want to see is a break above this to call it a successful reclaim.

I want to see a breakout above this moving average trend line on rising volume and then retest of this moving average trend line on a decline in volume. And I want to see at least a daily candle close then afterwards above that moving average trend line and then it will tell me, "All right, this is a successful successful breakout.

This is a successful reclaim." And the continuation of the previous price action, that means the bullish previous price action, the continuation is going to be with much higher probability. It's not going to be certain. That's why as a professional traders we are using a risk management, right?

But, the probabilities are going to be on our side, so we might already start playing with some bullish trading tactics, for example, okay? So, at this moment, we still have the same thing what I have been talking about in the previous video. So, shorting right here in like expectation to catch the move towards $44,000, possible move towards $44,000, is not only low probability at this moment, but also bad risk reward, right?

So, what I'm waiting for is really the higher levels. Given that also we can see the momentum of the bears on this slow that we have been calling out is basically non-existent. So, I don't want to see I don't want to play with bears if I see they are so weak, right?

I want to play always with the stronger market participants. So, we have created lower low on the price action and higher low on the MACD histogram. So, that means we have a bullish divergence. We have also divergence with the volume. As you can see on this next low, the volume been decreasing, right?

So, really the bears are not in a power. So, right now what I want to see is basically the reclaim of the moving average trend line. We don't have a bearish divergence, which is amazing. So, still bulls have a lot of power to go.

On the RSI, we see a breakout, which might be predicting what's going to happen on the price action. But again, I want to see a reclaim. All right? So, I want to see retest and then look in one candle to the upside. And that will tell me, all right, very high probability of continuation towards that 70 70 points right here on the RSI.

So, this is from the daily time frame perspective. More confirmations are needed. Together with that, you might ask me, like, why do you still have this as a red color? We are already above it. Isn't it already a support? Well, we are going to close the daily candle in 9 hours 59 minutes, ladies and gentlemen.

If we can close the daily candle above this level, which is still acting for me as a resistance on the daily time frame and is sitting exactly at $60,000, even though we are right now at $61,900, for me, this is still unconfirmed flip off from resistance into a support.

However, if we will close the daily candle above $60,400, I will change this to green color. No, I will change this to white color. It's going to be a neutral zone for me. I will change this to a green color if we will see this kind of a retest.

All right? Again, I really want to see the reclaim. And then we have been already talking about what I want to see on the moving average trend line or I want to see if if there will be no reclaim of this, I want to see the reclaim of the moving average trend line, then I will turn this into green as well.

Okay? So, very important for to wait on the daily close for me at this moment. And uh if the bullish confirmations will start to happen, the move towards $79,000 will increase on probabilities, right? So, still I'm playing right here with bullish trading tactics, not bearish trading tactics, as you already know.

Let's move towards the 4-hour time frame to understand if we are already creating the five moves to the upside, all right? Which would again confirm the bullish trend continuation higher. So, we know that we have finished the nice ending diagonal right here. That means the corrective B wave, the higher degree B wave that we have been talking about, this one, right?

So, right now we want to understand if we are already creating the first wave of that higher degree C wave. So, let's take a look first of all at the momentum indicators. We can see we have got that bullish divergence that we have been talking about previously.

We have got a bullish cross. Do we have a bearish divergence? Because in the crypto market and in trading in general, it's also very important to always like understand or look out for the dog that didn't bark. Because like sometimes what's actually not visible on the market, something what you don't see, is sometimes the most important thing.

So, what the market is right now lacking of? We are lacking of bearish divergence, right? So, it's actually important to understand we don't have a bearish divergence just yet, right? Henceforth, the bulls can pretty much keep on pushing. They can keep on pushing.

On the 4-hour time frame, the next important resistance for me is at $63,000. So, the bulls can keep on pushing. I don't see a bearish divergence. For me, shorting at this moment is basically low probability and bad risk-reward as well, right? But I understand already what we've been discussing like in the beginning of this video, all these kind of like warning signs.

So, that means like if I have not been longing right here, here longing is right now dangerous as well. It's not a high probability thing to do because of those warning signs, right, that we have been going through. But shorting either. So, if you've been longing right here, for example, taking some profits, that's a smart idea to do because of the warning signs, right?

But bearish divergence is not in existent. So, actually shorting is low probability. Low probability. Even though we see that the volume the bullish volume is already decreasing, which kind of confirms what we are saying what we have been saying previously in the beginning of this video, right?

What we see on the RSI, let's check. Do we have a bearish divergence? Not yet, right? Higher high on the price action, higher high on the RSI as well. The stochastic RSI is having a bearish cross, but you know, to really call the bears as they are back in power, I want to see those legs being in this zone, looking to the outside.

For example, what we have got right here, right? And then they have started to push the downside. So, we don't get get that momentum confirmations just yet, ladies and gentlemen. What the price action? What about the price action? So, we can see that we have created a nice bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the 4-hour time frame, right?

What about the price action, however? Did we got that five moves to the upside? Well, take a look at this. First secondary wave, third, then a fourth, which was the alternation of the second, right? This was sideways. This was and it was long.

This was very short and it was it was kind of aggressive, so alternation between first and fourth. Well, and right now, we are creating the final fifth wave. So, as a professional trader, what's actually much better is not to trying to predict what's going to happen right now, given that not bulls neither bears have too much like ahead above each other, but it's about waiting again right now, right?

So, if you are in a position from here, it's about waiting game right now and the most professional traders are the most patient ones. So, if this is beginning of the top or here is going to be the top, but you can see pretty much the difference is not that it's not that big.

From 59 700 to 59 300. So, basically, right now, what the professional traders will be doing is waiting for the secondary wave, right? For the secondary wave. That would mean Yes, I like this. This is for me. This is not an exhale, so it's kind of confirming that we are already doing the first motive wave structure, which is great, but to create some nice on the daily time frame swing long position,

I want to also see the price action of the secondary wave. I want to see that being an exhale and I want to see the support that will with the highest probability be around 59,000 700 to 58,700. I want to see that this is going to be a corrective motive wave structure, exhale, right?

I want to see bullish divergencies forming right here. Other confluences The more confluences, the more aggressive I'll I'll be able to go on the long signal, for example, right? And then I will be positioning myself for the next important move, which is going to be the third wave.

That's going to be the impulse, right? So, ladies and gentlemen, right now be careful. Longing right here is becoming dangerous because of what we have been checking in the in the in the beginning of this video. And the better play is being patient as we are doing in priority some VIP always because we are focusing on long-term profitability, not on getting rich quick.

Our main main motto is to protect our capital. We would much rather miss miss some trades than risking our capital unnecessarily, right? So, we are working with a lot of a lot of money. We have clients that are handling also a lot of money.

So, our main focus in on protecting our capital and making sure that we can safely grow it over time. That also means missing a lot of trades in the in the in the short term, right? And in the short term, we are also being outperformed by most of the traders, right?

But it's like this kind of owner of casino versus gambler. So, basically the gambler in the short run can outperform the owner of casino because the gambler can get lucky. The gambler can make $50,000 in 5 minutes, right? The owner of casino can lose, for example, $5,000 in 5 minutes, right?

So, on this picture, a lot of people would say if the if the gambler would be actually trader one and the owner of casino would be trader two, judging and a lot of people are doing that, right? Like judging from the short term, for example, 3 months performance, they would say, "All right, trader one is much better than the trader two, right?" And but like the long term is is more important,

right? Because you know the gambler got just lucky. Actually, his gambles his games were with the edge or like against him. So, the more times he's going to be going with the same strategy in the market, sometimes he might get lucky, right? But, the longer the time goes, for example, 3 5 years, the higher probability he will start losing everything because he's playing against against probabilities, right?

And the probability is always show up. It just needs time, right? So, the owner of casino that has this curve like this, and the gambler has it like this, right? So, in the long run, and I'm talking about a years. Yeah? So, that's trader one, trader two, ladies and gentlemen.

So, our main focus in Prolit sem VIP is protecting our capital, always been since 2016. That is why we are probably the only crypto signal group that you are still seeing that started in 2016, right? There are many of them. Most of them are gone.

Most of them been also scammers, right? That's why they are gone. So, our main focus is on this, ladies and gentlemen, and in these videos on YouTube, I will keep you updated again on Saturdays. You know, I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday to keep you updated about what I'm seeing in the market right now.

So, until then, play safe, play with a professional trading strategy, and I will see you in the next one. Cheers. >> Calm [music] burn. Clear eyes. Work done. No rush. No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click.

Execute like [singing] a pro. That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.