In short: In this Thursday session Simon reads Bitcoin as net long into resistance, with about 92% of the crypto market showing positive funding at the intro (easing to 88% to 89% as he spoke). Price reversed from the $57,500 support and pushed up from near $60,900, liquidating shorts along the way. He puts the short-squeeze read around 15% and eyes a corrective push toward $79,000, but he calls fresh longing here dangerous: no bearish divergence yet, so he waits for a pullback to $59,700 to $58,700 rather than chasing.
Why does Simon read Bitcoin as long but still cautious here?
Because the same crowd that shorted the lows is now long the highs. Simon notes funding flipped from neutral back to positive, with roughly 88% to 92% of the market leaning long. That greed after a bounce is exactly what makes him careful, not confident, near resistance.
What happened at the $57,500 support?
Earlier in the week Simon read absorption at $57,500: buy walls defended the level while retail pushed the final leg down. Smart money soaked up the selling, bullish divergences formed, and the higher-probability path became a reversal. Price then turned up from around $60,900.
What does the funding and open interest picture show now?
Simon sees the opposite of the setup that called the bounce. Open interest is rising again, cumulative volume delta shows futures pushing price, and funding has heated back up. With most of the market long, he reads fuel that market makers can use to move price the other way. You can track the same numbers on the live crypto funding rates board.
How high is the squeeze probability?
Simon reads the short-squeeze probability near 15%. He adds that in a sideways market, 15% to 20% is already meaningful. He does not treat it as a green light, only as one input among the funding, open interest and price-action signals he weighs together.
Where could a push higher actually go?
On the daily timeframe Simon frames any move up as a corrective wave, an exhale, that could reach toward $79,000. He points to a CME futures gap, a cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels across timeframes, and prior price history all lining up near that zone.
What is the weekly ending-diagonal idea?
On the weekly chart Simon still expects an ending diagonal, with the eventual exchange of hands around $55,000 to $44,000. He places current price in a secondary wave of that larger structure, and stresses it is a probability map, not a certainty.
Why does Simon say longing here is dangerous?
The warning signs stack up: greedy funding, futures leading, and bullish volume already fading. Yet there is still no bearish divergence, so bulls can keep pushing. That leaves both sides low-probability right now. If you longed the lows, he says taking some profit into strength is the smart move.
What is the more professional play?
Patience. Simon would rather wait for a secondary wave to pull back toward $59,700 to $58,700. He wants to confirm it as a corrective exhale and look for bullish divergences. More confluence there would let him position for the next impulse wave instead of chasing an extended move.
What signals is Simon watching next?
He wants a clear bearish divergence on the RSI before calling the bears back, plus momentum legs rolling over from overbought. Until then he treats $63,000 as the next 4-hour resistance and reads the fresh bullish hammer as strength that still needs confirmation.
What is the casino-owner mindset he keeps returning to?
Simon compares a disciplined trader to a casino owner and an impulsive one to a gambler. A gambler can get lucky short term, but probability compounds over years. Since 2016 his focus has been protecting capital first and accepting missed trades rather than forcing bad ones. The capital math behind that discipline is in our crypto position sizing guide.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Education only, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries significant risk, and you can lose money. Nothing here is a promise of profit; always do your own research and manage risk.
FAQ
What does 92% positive funding mean for Bitcoin?
It means the large majority of the market is paying to stay long. Simon reads that as retail greed after a bounce, which can give market makers room to push price the other way and squeeze crowded positions.
Is Simon predicting Bitcoin will hit $79,000?
No. He frames $79,000 as a possible target for a corrective push, supported by a CME gap and Fibonacci confluence. He treats it as a probability, not a forecast, and does not promise it will be reached.
Why does Simon call longing at resistance dangerous?
Because funding is greedy, futures are leading, and bullish volume is fading, all warning signs. With no bearish divergence yet, both longing and shorting read as low-probability, so he prefers to wait for a cleaner setup.
What pullback zone is Simon watching?
He watches roughly $59,700 to $58,700 for a corrective exhale. If it holds with bullish divergences forming, he would consider positioning for the next impulse wave rather than chasing price at resistance.
How does Simon manage risk in these setups?
Capital protection first. He would rather miss a trade than risk unnecessarily, comparing the approach to a casino owner playing long-term probabilities. That discipline has guided MyCryptoParadise since 2016.
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