In short: Michael Saylor’s Strategy has approved selling up to 1.25 billion dollars of Bitcoin, and in this Tuesday session Simon reads it as a possible trigger toward the long-held 44,000 dollar target. But the immediate move lower is futures-driven, not spot, so the short-term probability of continuation down is low (Simon puts it near 15 percent). His current bias is bullish tactics and patience: wait for confirmation, with 79,000 dollars as the level that would invalidate the bearish structure and 44,000 to 55,000 as the deeper “exchange of hands” zone if heavy selling arrives.
What did Saylor actually announce, and why does it matter?
Strategy approved up to 1.25 billion dollars of Bitcoin to be sold. Simon frames Saylor’s earlier Prague messaging as PR: Saylor told holders not to sell, he never said the company itself would never sell. The approval is the setup many had expected.
Why it matters for a trader: a large, forced seller is exactly the kind of flow that historically helps carve a macro bottom, but only once someone on the other side absorbs it. That absorption, not the selling itself, is the signal Simon is waiting for.
Is Bitcoin heading to 44,000 dollars?
The 44,000 dollar level has been Simon’s target since Bitcoin topped its cycle in 2025. He pairs it with 55,000 dollars as the upper edge, so 44,000 to 55,000 forms a single zone. In his read this is where weak hands would hand Bitcoin to patient buyers.
He is watching spot volume, not derivatives, plus net realized and unrealized profit and loss, for heavy loss-taking and strong absorption. Those conditions are not met yet, so 44,000 is a scenario to prepare for, not a call for right now.
Why the current drop is a weak signal
The move from roughly 60,000 down toward 58,000 is being driven by futures, not spot. Open interest is rising into it and the cumulative volume delta reads futures-led. That is borrowed money, which usually is not the smart money, so the probability of clean continuation down is low.
Reinforcing that: a large buy wall sits near 57,500 dollars, protecting price from falling through the structure below. On momentum, both MACD and RSI diverge from the lower low, and volume is thinning. The bears are pushing but the power is not there.
Simon read the funding rates live on our own tool during this session, and flagged that they were about to flip negative. You can watch the same data on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page, including which coins carry the highest squeeze probability on the lower timeframes.
What are the funding rates and Fear and Greed telling us?
Fear and Greed sat neutral to fearful on the daily and 4 hour timeframes in this session, not extreme greed. Funding was still positive but, in Simon’s read, about to turn negative as the market flushed leverage, with a long squeeze already underway on the candle.
Negative funding into a flush is what preceded recent altcoin squeezes he pointed to, including moves in NANO and Zcash after heavy shorting. A rising short-squeeze probability raises the odds of a reversal, which is why he watches funding closely rather than trading the headline.
Which levels is Simon watching?
- 44,000 dollars: the long-standing target and the lower edge of the exchange-of-hands zone.
- 55,000 dollars: the upper edge of that same zone.
- 57,500 dollars: a large buy wall defending the structure below.
- 57,000 dollars: the 1.272 level, the next support Simon watches if price breaks lower.
- 60,500 dollars: the level a recovery needs to reclaim to confirm strength.
- 79,000 dollars: his daily-timeframe number and the invalidation of the bearish structure. A short’s safest stop sits above it.
What is the trade, and what is the bias now?
Simon is explicit that shorting here carries poor risk to reward, and that a fresh long needs more confirmation than exists in this session. His stated bias for the moment is bullish tactics and monitoring, not chasing either side.
On structure he sees a possible C wave that could reach toward 79,000 dollars, with 70,000 as a nearer resistance. The point is not a prediction: it is that probabilities, level context, and risk to reward decide the trade, and right now the highest-probability action is patience.
The mindset: sniper, not random shooter
Simon closes on discipline. A coin flip can land tails many times in a row, so a single outcome never disproves a probability. Professionals size up when the edge and risk to reward are strong, size down when they are weak, and sit on their hands when there is no edge.
His framing: trade like a sniper waiting for the clean shot, not a random shooter hoping to hit something. The next session, on Thursday, goes deeper into the lower-timeframe price action.
FAQ
Does Saylor selling mean Bitcoin will crash?
Not automatically. Simon treats the 1.25 billion dollar approval as a possible trigger toward the 44,000 to 55,000 dollar zone only if heavy selling arrives and is confirmed by spot volume and loss-taking. In this session those conditions were not met, and the immediate move down was futures-driven, which he reads as a low-probability continuation.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin target?
His long-standing target is 44,000 dollars, held since Bitcoin topped its cycle in 2025, paired with 55,000 dollars as the upper edge of one zone. On the daily timeframe he also watches 79,000 dollars, both as a possible upside path and as the level that would invalidate the current bearish structure.
Why watch spot volume instead of futures?
Large players do not need leverage to accumulate or distribute, and leverage would work against them through slippage. So Simon watches spot volume to see whether real money is absorbing selling pressure. A move led by futures and rising open interest, like this one, is borrowed money and usually a weaker signal.
What does a negative funding rate signal?
Negative funding means shorts are paying to hold positions, which often builds short-squeeze fuel. Into a leverage flush it can precede a reversal, as Simon noted before recent altcoin squeezes. He watches funding on the MCP tools rather than trading a single reading, since probability and confluence matter more than one number.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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