Bitcoin: Will Saylor’s $1.25B Sale Push BTC to $44K?

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Michael Saylor's strategy prepares to sell up to 1.25 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. [music] Is this something that will help Bitcoin crash towards our magical number, $44,000? Let's [music] analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto Paradise. >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Brothers cup, this is someone from My Crypto Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, yes, Michael Saylor approved 1.25 billion dollars to be sold. We have been talking about it the last few weeks ago. He was in Prague.

That's the city I'm from and he was doing his PR. When he was actually trying to tell you that he never said actually that he will never sell his Bitcoin. He told you not to sell your Bitcoin. He never said that he's not going to sell any, all right?

[laughter] So, that was his PR. That was the preparation. What we have been expecting that's going to come after and that's going to be that he's actually starts selling, right? So, announcement, all right? And we can assume that once market does a very important move that we will be talking about it, he might start to selling heavy and that might get us to the magical number $44,000 that we are expecting for

a very long time since 2025 basically, right? Since Bitcoin topped out and finished its bull market in 2025 right here. We have been calling for $44,000. This zone, ladies and gentlemen. Then Bitcoin created another exhale up to $121,000 and then we have been also expecting that it's going to be breathing inside of those five waves, right?

So, inhale, exhale, inhale, exhale and the final inhale is right now with the highest probability happening, right? So, if Michael Saylor will begin to sell his Bitcoin, all right, that the strategy is holding, we will know about it, right? So, you know that we are watching this net unrealized profit and loss chart, and we know that every macro bottom since 2011 been created by those similar institutions and that basically includes Bitcoin

mining companies and individuals and group of people as well that are handling a lot of Bitcoins. And it always the macro bottom is being created by those those entities that have not been able to manage their risk well start selling heavily in losses, right?

But that's not all because somebody else on the other side needs to absorb the selling pressure in order for the bottom to be created, right? And henceforth, that is why we are watching this Bitcoin trading volume, but not from derivative exchanges, but only from spot, all right?

Because we are watching the smart money, and as we already know, if we are managing billions and billions of dollars, we don't need leverage to make money, right? So, we are focusing on this distribution and reaccumulation strategies. We don't need any leverage to make money out of that strategy, and even if we would be using leverage, that would actually be against us.

We would be playing against us because we would be creating slippage, etc., and that would decrease our profitability. That is why as a smart money, we need to play on spot exchange, right? That is why we are watching what's going to happen on the other side, who's going to be actually absorbing that selling pressure that will come from those entities that have not been able to manage their risk well, right?

And we'll be watching for very nice absorption of that selling pressure, right? Of that selling pressure. That will be visible right here. So far, we can see some kind of upticks, but I would at least like to be touching those 200,000s, yeah? On this on this on this level right here.

And for some time, together with that, I want to see the opposite happening from the net realized profit and loss. Henceforth, I want to see that the loss is being heavily realized, all right? And the entities are selling in a loss. We are close to zero.

We are not yet there, ladies and gentlemen. So, it's kind of nicely con fluencing with really the level that we are watching and the zone that we are watching, which is that $44,000, which is the lower boundary of our zone. The upper boundary is made out of $55,000.

Another important level that we have been going in depth in previous videos. So, $44,000 and $55,000 creating this zone, which in my opinion is going to be the same zone where the exchange of the hands from the entities that have not been able to manage their risk well to the smart money that have been exactly waiting for this kind of period where the entities will be forced to sell.

It's no panic selling, all right? Panic selling been happening, for example, right here. This is already that you actually need to sell and get rid of the Bitcoins, otherwise you will go bankrupt, yeah? That's exactly what Michael Saylor been speaking about in Prague few weeks ago, that he's not going to destroy his multi-billion company just because he told somebody that he's not going to sell Bitcoin, all right?

So, this was the zone back in 2022, all right? Made out of boundaries 24 and the lower boundary $16,000. And I do believe that 55 and 44,000s is going to be the current exchange of the hands zone, all right? So, I'm watching that on the weekly time frame.

You know exactly that I'm watching for this. From the price action perspective, with the highest probability, we are right now creating the final fifth wave that will be taking the the basically pattern of an ending diagonal that you and me know very well, right?

So, it's basically those five sub waves that separate itself into small corrective waves. That means each and every single move is going to be an exhale, all right? You also know that there might be a better opportunity if you're also doing swing trading and not only like distribution and then reaccumulation.

If you're also playing with leverage in your day trading accounts, you know that there might be a better opportunity to create a swing trade again, right? Swing short straight. So, right here we have been discussing in the previous videos creating a short position with expectation of hitting target of that of some of that zone, the lower or the upper boundary of our of that exchange of the hand zone is coming not

only with low probability, but also very bad risk reward, right? So, we have been taking a look that the better opportunity might be and the best one would be if Bitcoin would revisit again $79,000, which is my magical number from daily time frame perspective.

And we'll be talking about it once again. And there is a lot of confluences that you know about from the previous videos. We will not be talking about those, but I want to put your focus right now on what's going on here, all right?

So, a lot of people are actually predicting that the market will continue to crash, okay? How do I know that that it's majority of the people? Well, few things. So, first of all, we understand that most of the retail is playing with a lot of leverage, right?

So, then if you take a look who is driving this price action to the downside, this from $60,000 to $58,000, we can see that it's being driven heavily by open interest, okay? We can see on the cumulative volume of flow dominance that this move, and particularly this final candle on this 4-hour 4-hour time frame, is being futures driven.

This is borrowed money, all right? It's not spot selling, it's borrowed money. What we know about it, that it's usually it's usually not the smart money, henceforth the continuation in that direction is usually very low, all right? It's not nonexistent, of course. Like there might be a whale that is holding a lot of Bitcoins, and he can basically dump it all, and it can happen, and it can ruin everything what the

market makers are preparing, for example, right? So, that's why as a professional traders, we work with risk management, we focus on high probability trades with great risk reward, and we keep on doing that. And we know that sometimes we lose, we're going to lose, but if we will basically follow the disciplined strategy that we have built for ourselves, all right?

Uh we will make money in the long run. So, right now the probabilities suggest that the continuation to the downside, especially below this big buy wall, uh that is that is exactly at $57,500, let's say, is very low, all right? So, we can see that actually the big money, and this is a big buy wall, is protecting the price from falling further to the downside, below this structure that we will be

talking about. If you take a look also on the fear and greed index, uh currently we can see that we are not in extreme greed mode on the important time frames that we are working with in this video, daily and 4-hour time frame.

So, we can actually see that most people are in a neutral to fearful mode, all right? And are they actually betting on it? We can actually see that they are, right? Because we can see that from the funding rates perspective, it's not a visible right here because the next funding it's going to be in 52 minutes.

So, watch over for that. But, you will see that we will start going quite negative, all right, very soon. Right now, it's still positive as you can see there's this long squeeze probability, but it's going to be updated in 52 minutes. You know, from my perspective at least the kind of of long squeeze already happened and right now is actually already happening during this candle right here.

So, the funding rates are going to change. By the way, it's very good this funding rates to be watch watching out for. If you have been watching them, for example, on during the weekend, you have been catching with us those those altcoins that actually been pumping on a heavy negative funding rates.

So, for example, NANO got some love and Zcash also got some to got some love because the funding rates been extremely negative, all right. So, a lot of people been actually shorting that and then the huge squeeze happened. So, if you have been watching the funding rates on our website markettoparadise.com, you have been seeing that they are among the top altcoins that are going to have squeeze on the lower time frames.

So, that's about the funding rates right now. Watch out in 51 minutes how it's going to change, in my opinion, because just watching how we have been right now flushing all of this and how much we are actually increasing in open interest, all right.

So, it will be it will be visible in the funding rates momentarily as well. And then, really, it's about all about probabilities, how much probability is going to be for the next short squeeze and if it's going to in the next hours increase, again, that's going to increase the probability that we will see a reversal, right.

So, as a professional traders, we continuously monitor all of this data that help us to really understand how we should be positioning ourselves and where the market is with with highest probability heading next. So, weekly time frame, we don't need to go through it too much, right?

Because we have been doing that in the previous videos already. Since then, the market basically didn't move. So, we don't need to go through the weekly time frame analysis much, but you know exactly, if you've been watching the previous videos, what we are watching for right here and what we have been discussing, what are the probabilities.

If we take a look on the daily time frame, again, nothing much changed since the previous 1 2 3 4 5 Yeah, so like previous three videos, 6 days. Yeah, so you know that I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. So, nothing much changed.

What on the daily time frame we are waiting for is to see the beginning of the C wave, right? Because we know that right now we are creating the flat pattern. If you've been watching the previous video, you know exactly what kind of a flat pattern we are actually forming, right?

If you have been watching that, you can write it to me in the comment section below. That will tell me, yes, this guy, he's watching. He's paying attention. So, right now we are waiting, for example, for the first wave, right? What makes the first wave an inhale is that we will see five smaller breaths.

And we have been talking about it. If this right now is a secondary wave, the third wave, I want to definitely see above this this level right here that previously wasn't acting as proper resistance just yet, but right now I can already turn it into a resistance on this on this retest, all right?

So, for me right now, this is a nice flip from support of that 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level with confluence of the historic price action and VPVR as well. And it's right now acting as a resistance. So, if we are beginning the C wave, that might take us up to 79,000 again, you know, about a confluence why 79,000 is important.

For a confirmation, I want to see the five moves to the upside, right? And there might be already some nice positioning on the fourth wave, but I would like to see the third wave basically to cross above above this this level that we have been talking about, which is exactly at $60,500, let's say.

And then the fourth wave, if I will see a corrective motive pattern, decline in volume, corrective wave structure, fourth waves are usually alternations of the secondary waves. There might be a nice long long setup, all right, to catch the final fifth wave of that first wave, and then a very nice swing setup might be coming on the secondary wave, yeah?

That will be another confirmation from a higher degree perspective, and then we will be catching the third wave. And definitely, if you're in prison VIP, and we will be deciding to get into that trade, you will know about that, ladies and gentlemen. So, right now, we are really just focusing on monitoring the market and waiting for more confirmations.

But again, shorting here for me is really not worthy, all right? At this moment, I would need to see more confirmations for me to be able to say, all right, so this was actually this was enough for the for the another exhale, and we are about to start pushing to the downside in that ending diagonal fashion of that weekly time frame perspective, right?

But it For me, the confirmation is not there just yet. What I What I see on the other hand are bullish confirmations. So, as you can see on this, the bears are really trying, right? They are trying to push to the downside, as we have been talking about they are using a lot of leverage.

Uh but the momentum is not there, right? So, you can see the previous low, what kind of momentum on the MACD histogram it created. And right now, we are actually creating a lower low, and the momentum is nonexistent. So, the bears are weak, all right?

They they are losing power. They are losing breath. We can see the volume is non-existent there as well as well, right? So, the volume on this low was kind of high above the moving average volume trend line. On this next low, which is not much, but it's lower than the previous low, the volume is actually decreasing, right?

So, we are having a divergence there as well. So, divergence from the price action on volume and on the momentum indicator as well is it confirmed with momentum indicator RSI? So, do we have two confirmations from momentum indicators? Yes, we do. Both MACD and RSI they are showing us that the bears are not having enough momentum, which is decreasing the probabilities given the other confluences that we have been watching for, the

buy wall below us, etc. The last candle has been driven by futures, right? It's borrowed money, open interest increasing on it, which is confirmed that it's futures borrowed money driven. It's the fear and greed index, right? It's increasing the probabilities. Well, it actually decreased the probabilities.

That's actually better way to say it. It decreased the probabilities that we will keep on pushing to the downside. It's not diminishing that. You need to understand that basically like when you are tossing a coin, right? You can either like hit heads or tail, right?

And those chances are 50/50, head on tails. But, you know that in this kind of in this kind of a sample of for example, 1,000 tosses of that coin, you can hit like in the high very high amount of samples, you can hit for example, 30 times in a row tails.

You know what I mean? And the chance of hitting that every time is just 50/50. And 30 times in a row you toss a coin and it's tails. Toss a coin and it's tails again. Toss a coin and it's tails again. So, you need to understand that trading works the same way.

So, even though right now the probability of going lower, in my opinion, it's like 15%, all right? It can still happen. And that is why as a professional traders, we are really focusing on risk management, right? Risk management so important because we understand probabilities.

We are just working with probabilities. If we have a lot of probabilities and a lot of confirmations and great trade setup with great risk reward, we go aggressive. Right? We go aggressive into position. When we have lower probability, we go defensive, right? When we have no probability, aka the edge is against us or there is no edge and the probabilities are against us, we sit on our hands, all right?

Patience, which is mostly most of the time, usually. It's patience, waiting like a sniper for your opportunity to take the setup, all right? To take the perfect shot, all right? So, not every time when you have an a bull's eye ahead, you will hit the head, but the chances are very high, right?

But not every time, but are much higher than if you just randomly shoot into the forest and you might hit the head, but the chances are low, right? So, that's the kind of analogy of sniper versus random shooter, right? We are snipers. We are snipers.

So, ladies and gentlemen, right now let's also have very quickly on the 4-hour time frame. So, what are we actually creating right here with the highest probability? We are right now finishing the B wave. I will tell you why. A, B, and right now we are finishing the C of that of that hard degree B wave.

I know, it's like letters. I will explain to you what I mean by that. So, we know that because this is a flat pattern, it subdivides itself into three smaller waves, right? And those three smaller waves are A, B, and C. and we know that this is inhale, exhale, and inhale.

And what do you What do we know about inhales? That they subdivide itself into five smaller breaths. And we know that this final breath in this B wave, this C wave of that B wave wasn't yet finished. Okay? How do we know that?

Because we are doing multi-time frame analysis. All right? Once that's going to be finished, the high probability is that we are going to start the C wave. That might take us up to $79,000. That doesn't mean that it's going to take us to $79,000.

We might stop right here at next important resistance that is much closer to the current price, which is at $70,000, right? But like if you are a professional trader, you basically working with probability. So again, what does it mean when I tell you the maximum possibility target is $79,000?

Well, that means that your last sell target probably should be there, right? If you decide to take a long trade. I'm not telling you to take a long trade. There is not enough confirmations for that just yet. But if there is going to be a long trade opportunity, $79,000 is not a bad idea.

The same way, if you are a bad trader and you are taking a short position, the risk reward is not good. But in order for you to understand that not to be wicked off from the noise that might happen in the market before the next real move is going to happen, the safest place to put your stop loss is really the $79,000 because it's an invalidation of the bearish structure.

So from the higher degree perspective, we are in a bearish structure and the next important target from bearish structure perspective is going to be $44,000. As you can see, the risk reward, most of the traders take it like this, right? On different time frames, not the daily.

Might also on the daily, but most of the traders they like to be the new traders or bad traders, they like to be always in action, right? So they are working with like 1-minute time frame, for example. And they are taking such a trades with very bad risk reward.

And most of the times they win, they hit their profit, right? But then when they lose, they lose big, right? And then when they hit losing streak, it's basically destroy the it's going to destroy their capital. So, risk reward is very important. Very important, as you know.

So, yeah. So, this is basically what I'm watching right now, ladies and gentlemen. And definitely I'll keep you updated. Not enough time to go through the 4-hour time frame, but just very quickly let's go through it. 1 2 3 4 and right now 5.

This fifth wave since all of those are corrective motive wave structures, is going to be with the highest probability the ending diagonal. 1 2 3 4 5. We might be finishing the final fifth wave, ending diagonal, and with the highest probability we will be pushing to the upside right now.

So, ladies and gentlemen, wait for confirmations, play with the professional trading strategies we are doing with parties and money babies, and focus on right now bullish trading tactics, because that's my opinion of having a higher probability, all right? So, that's what I'm doing.

All right. So, ladies and gentlemen, this is going to be this is right now higher probability. And in the next video that is going to be on Thursday, we will go deeper into the lower time frame price action. Next support if the below us going to broke, I'm going to be watching $57,000 straight, all right?

$57,000 straight. That's 1.272. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for watching and until the next time, take care. Cheers. >> [music] >> Clear eyes, work done. Now right I No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro.

That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.