Bitcoin SOPR, live: are the loss-taking sellers getting exhausted?
SOPR, the spent output profit ratio, measures whether the coins that actually moved on-chain today were sold at a profit or a loss. Below 1 means holders are realizing losses; above 1 means they are taking profit. Split by cohort, it is the fastest behavioral read in on-chain: the short-term holder SOPR shows the newest buyers capitulating or defending their breakeven, and the long-term holder SOPR shows whether seasoned hands are distributing or giving up. This page draws all three, grades every breakeven reset, and reads whether the forced selling looks exhausted.
Connecting…
Seller Exhaustion state
reading……%
reading…
share of past short-term holder loss-realization clusters that were followed by a price recovery within the horizon
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Distance to breakeven
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how far the short-term holder SOPR sits from the 1.0 breakeven line, in its own daily volatility
Breakeven resets defended
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share of every past short-term holder SOPR test of 1.0 that held as support rather than breaking down
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SOPR by cohort, with the 1.0 breakeven line
The SOPR history is still building.
The reset replay every 1.0 touch, played out
Tap any diamond on the 1.0 line, or step through the resets below, to replay the days around that breakeven test: the short-term holder SOPR approaching 1.0, the test, and whether it was defended or rejected.
Tap a diamond on the 1.0 line, or press Play, to replay a breakeven reset.
Each ratio is a spent-output profit ratio: above 1.0 the coins that moved were sold at a profit, below 1.0 at a loss. Aggregate SOPR is the whole network; the short-term holder line (coins under 155 days old, 7-day smoothed) is the fastest and most reactive; the long-term holder line marks whether seasoned hands are giving up or distributing. Price is the ghost line on the right. Source: Bitcoin Research Kit (bitview.space), with bitcoin-data.com as the daily failover. Values are estimates.
Reading the current flows
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Breakeven reset tracker defended vs rejected
Every time the short-term holder SOPR came back to 1.0, we scored whether the breakeven was defended (it reclaimed profit and held as support) or rejected (it broke down into deeper loss-realization). Reconstructed tests are marked; new tests are graded live as they resolve.
| Date | Approach | Price | STH-SOPR | Days | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the reset log… | |||||
Why we publish a base rate, not a false probability
The SOPR lines and the graded reset log are measured facts, read straight from the on-chain data. Those are the page, and they are not up for debate.
We wanted to give you a calibrated Seller Exhaustion probability, conditioned on how deep the current loss-realization runs. We pre-registered the method before we fitted anything, and it did not clear the bar. When short-term holders start realizing losses, price has recovered within a month only about half the time, a coin flip, and the depth of the capitulation did not reliably improve those odds once we tested it out of sample. Worse, the relationship even flipped sign in the earliest era, so it is regime dependent, not a stable edge. Putting a precise percentage on the current flush would be dressing up noise. Instead we show the honest unconditional frequency and read the current setup as a state. When enough new episodes accrue, the pre-registered method re-runs itself, and a calibrated number ships only if it earns it, including across market eras. It is a historical frequency, not a forecast, and never advice.
SOPR, defined
SOPR
SOPR, the spent output profit ratio, is the value of the coins that moved on-chain today divided by their value when they last moved. Above 1.0 the market is realizing profit; below 1.0 it is realizing losses. It is the fastest behavioral read in on-chain because it measures coins that actually changed hands today.
Short-term holder SOPR
STH-SOPR restricts SOPR to coins moved within the last 155 days, the newest buyers. It is the most reactive cohort: in uptrends it dips to 1.0 and is defended by dip-buyers, and in downtrends it rallies to 1.0 and is rejected as trapped recent buyers sell to exit flat.
Long-term holder SOPR
LTH-SOPR restricts SOPR to coins held for more than 155 days, the closest on-chain proxy for seasoned money. Sustained readings below 1.0 mean even long-term holders are selling at a loss, which historically clusters near cycle floors; a multiple-times spike in an uptrend is smart money distributing into strength.
Breakeven reset
A breakeven reset is when the short-term holder SOPR returns to 1.0, its cohort breakeven. It is defended when the level reclaims profit and holds as support, and rejected when it breaks down into deeper loss-realization. MyCryptoParadise grades every reset in the historical record.
Seller exhaustion
Seller exhaustion is the point where the forced sellers in a loss-realization cluster are done and price can recover. It is read from how deep and how sustained the short-term holder loss-taking runs, together with whether long-term holders are still capitulating. It is a state, not a forecast.
SOPR is the flow. Cost basis is the wall it runs into.
SOPR shows who is acting on their profit and loss right now. To see where the breakevens sit and where supply is trapped, read the cost basis bands, and read the cycle valuation for the bigger picture. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, reading whether the loss-taking is exhausting, and whether the recent buyers are defending or breaking their breakeven, is one of the layers behind every level we watch, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the SOPR lines
Four ideas behind the picture above.
1.0 is the line that matters
SOPR pivots around 1.0 because that is breakeven. In a healthy uptrend dips to 1.0 are bought and defended; when 1.0 stops holding and SOPR knifes below on rising volume, the dip-buyers have flipped to forced sellers.
Short-term holders move first
The newest buyers have the least conviction, so their SOPR is the fastest to react. It is where breakeven behavior shows up first, which is why we track and grade its resets separately.
Long-term holders confirm the phase
When even seasoned holders are selling at a loss the market is late in a bear; when they spike into strength they are distributing to retail. LTH-SOPR is slow but it confirms which side of the cycle you are on.
We grade the resets, not the vibes
Everyone points at SOPR crossing 1.0. We mark every short-term holder reset and score whether it held, so the base rate is a fact rather than a slogan.