What we will and will not put a number on

We will show you the premium, its persistence, where it sits in its own range, and whether it is diverging from price. Those are measured facts, read first-hand from the exchanges, and they are the whole point of the page.

What we will not do is dress up a guess as a probability. We tested, over nine years of daily history, whether the premium could tell us which way price resolves next. On the untouched block of recent history that edge did not hold up, because the real tell is in the intraday session behavior, which we are only now capturing first-hand. So we do not print a Smart-Flow Edge probability. We show you the premium, our own honest test, and we let you read it. When our own intraday record is deep enough, we will test it again in public.