Coinbase Premium Index: who bid harder in US market hours
The gap between bitcoin’s price on Coinbase, in US dollars, and on Binance, in offshore USDT, adjusted for the tether peg. When Coinbase pays more, US money bid harder.
Bitcoin · who bid harder in US market hoursThu 8 Oct
Offshore bid harder
Coinbase sat $6.0 below offshore per bitcoina discount of -0.0074%
Read across US market hours, New York time
- Sessions in a row
- 1 session, offshore harder
- Week so far · 8 Oct
- US harder in 0 of 1
- Since 8 Oct
- US harder in 0 of 1
- US session, Fri 9 Oct, so far
- -$6.4 per bitcoin
Probability read checked Jul 2026
No edge
the Coinbase premium has not earned a probability we can stand behind
Every number we print has to earn its place on fresh market history, by a rule we wrote down before we looked. This one did not, so we print no number.
No edge is a reading too. Still measured: who bid harder in each US session and the daily premium.
The daily premium, adjusted for the tether peg
The premium history did not load this time. Reloading the page tries again.
Each point is the premium at the close of the UTC day. Before July 2026 the line is rebuilt from each exchange’s daily closing prices; since then it is read first-hand every few minutes. A gap in the line is a day with no reading. Values are estimates.
What we will and will not put a number on
The verdict, the dollar gap, the US market hours split, the run of sessions and the daily premium history are measured facts, read from Coinbase, Binance and Kraken prices. Those are the page, and they are not up for debate.
A probability is different. It is a judgement rather than a count, and a number like that has to earn its place on fresh market history, by a rule we wrote down before we looked at the result.
On the latest check the premium did not earn it, so we print no number. We never call a premium bullish on its own. Every number on this page is a measured reading, not a forecast, and never advice.
The premium, defined
Coinbase premium
The Coinbase premium is the gap between the price of bitcoin on Coinbase, quoted in US dollars, and on Binance, quoted in USDT, adjusted for the tether peg. This page shows it in dollars per coin and in percent. Above zero, buyers on Coinbase paid more than offshore buyers; below zero, they paid less. Arbitrage keeps the two prices close, so one reading can swing, and an average across a whole session is steadier.
US market hours
US market hours are 9:30 to 16:00 New York time, Monday to Friday, the regular hours of the New York stock market. This page reads the average Coinbase premium across those hours apart from the rest of the day. Its clock follows US daylight saving time, and it reads those hours on US holidays and early-close days too, because Coinbase trades every day.
Offshore price
Offshore here means Binance’s bitcoin market quoted in USDT, a dollar token issued outside the US banking system and a large pool of crypto trading priced in dollars outside the US. It is the yardstick for what US buyers pay.
Tether peg adjustment
USDT does not always trade at exactly one dollar. The page divides out USDT’s own price in US dollars, read from Kraken, so a wobble in the peg is never mistaken for a gap between buyers.
The premium shows which side paid more. The whales show who moved size. Funding shows what leverage pays.
Read them together for context. None of them is a forecast.
For the ParadiseTeam, reading who is absorbing whom is one of the layers behind every decision we make, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the Coinbase premium
Four ideas behind the picture above.
A session, not a tick
One premium reading can swing from minute to minute, because arbitrage keeps pulling the two prices back together. An average across a whole US session is steadier than any single moment, which is why the verdict reads all of US market hours, not one moment.
Why US hours get their own read
US market hours are the regular hours of the New York stock market, the same window every weekday. Reading them apart from the rest of the day lets one weekday be compared with the next; the rest of the day mixes in every other time zone.
Premium and price together
The premium says which side paid more, not where the price goes next. Read it beside the price line on the chart: a premium that holds while the price falls means US buyers kept paying up into the drop, and a discount into a rally means the opposite.
Dollars, not just percent
A premium of a few thousandths of a percent sounds like nothing. On bitcoin it is several dollars per coin, which is easier to picture, so the page shows the dollars beside the percent.
Questions and answers
What is the Coinbase premium?
The Coinbase premium is the gap between the price of bitcoin on Coinbase, quoted in US dollars, and on Binance, quoted in USDT, adjusted for the tether peg, read in percent or in dollars per coin. Above zero, buyers on Coinbase paid more than offshore buyers; below zero, they paid less. MyCryptoParadise reads it across each US market session and shows the gap in dollars per bitcoin.
Is a high Coinbase premium bullish?
Not on its own. A premium says US buyers paid more than offshore buyers for a while; it does not say where the price goes next. This page prints no probability, because the premium has not earned one we can stand behind on fresh market history. It shows what US money did instead.
What are US market hours on this page?
9:30 to 16:00 New York time, Monday to Friday, the regular hours of the New York stock market. The clock follows US daylight saving time, weekends have no US session, and US holidays and early-close days are read like any weekday because Coinbase trades every day. The page reads the average premium across those hours apart from the rest of the day.
What does a Coinbase discount mean?
A discount means bitcoin was cheaper on Coinbase than offshore, so the offshore side bid harder than US dollars did. Gaps are usually a few dollars per bitcoin, because arbitrage keeps the two prices close; this page reads which side paid more across each whole US session.
