In short: Bitcoin has closed July green in most years since 2013, but that history is close to noise, not a signal. The current read is a probability, not a promise. Near-term the ParadiseTeam leans toward a retrace into the $58,800 to $59,700 support zone, because positioning is stretched long into resistance. Fear and Greed sits near 80, funding is positive across most of the market, and a slide to $59,400 would liquidate roughly $2.6 billion in long positions. A push back toward the $79,000 high-time-frame level stays on the table, but more likely after that lower retest, not before it.
Does Bitcoin’s July history actually mean anything?
Not much on its own. Bitcoin has printed a green July in most years since 2013, and that is where a lot of traders stop thinking. The honest answer is that a small, seasonal sample tells you almost nothing about the next candle.
The ParadiseTeam frames it like a roulette wheel. Landing on the same number several spins in a row is possible, yet the odds each spin never change. July being positive four years running does not raise the probability that this July follows suit.
July has also closed red before, in 2023, 2019, 2016 and 2014. So seasonality earns a few probability points at most. It never earns a full position on its own.
Key takeaway: Seasonality is a footnote, not a thesis. Live positioning decides the near-term move, not what the calendar did in past summers.
Where is Bitcoin positioned right now?
At the time of this session Bitcoin traded near $62,580, sitting at resistance on the medium time frame. That location matters more than the month. Price stalling under resistance while traders keep adding longs is a fragile setup.
The team maps a tight resistance zone at $63,200 to $63,700. Several overlapping tools confirm it: Fibonacci retracement, historic price action, volume profile and multi-time-frame structure. When many independent methods flag the same band, that level carries weight.
Momentum tells the quieter story. Price is grinding to higher highs, but the momentum behind each push is fading. That gap, higher price on weaker thrust, is a classic bearish divergence and a sign the current leg up is running low on fuel.
What does the liquidation imbalance actually show?
A clear lean to the downside. From near $62,580, a push up to $68,000 would liquidate about $1.34 billion in short positions. A slide down to $59,400 would liquidate roughly $2.6 billion in longs. That is a large imbalance, and it points to where the fuel sits.
Liquidation levels are simply the prices where over-leveraged positions get force-closed. When one side is far heavier, a small nudge from larger players can trigger a cascade, as forced selling begets more forced selling.
Zoom out to the yearly view and the imbalance flips higher up. A move toward $75,000 would liquidate around $11 billion in shorts, while a comparable drop to $52,000 clears only about $4 billion in longs. That deeper pull is part of why the $79,000 target stays credible over time.
You can watch this positioning yourself. The live funding rates board tracks funding and squeeze pressure across all major exchanges, updated continuously. You read the same crowd data the ParadiseTeam reads.
Are traders too greedy into this level?
The confirmations say yes. On our own Fear and Greed reading, the medium time frame pushed toward 80. The 80 and 20 marks act as warning zones. Near 80 the crowd is extremely greedy, which often precedes a slowdown when it lines up with resistance.
Funding backs it up. Across the market, about 78% of coins showed positive funding rates, meaning traders are paying a fee to hold longs. Funding is the cost that keeps perpetual prices tied to spot. Hot positive funding usually means the crowd is already long and paying for the privilege.
On Bitcoin specifically, the board read roughly a 16% probability of a long squeeze. Greedy sentiment plus positive funding plus stalling price is the exact architecture that leaves the downside vulnerable. It is worth understanding before you size a position, which is where disciplined position sizing and capital preservation does the real work.
Use the tool below to see what positive funding actually costs a leveraged long over time. It is education, not financial advice.
So can Bitcoin still push back to $79K?
Yes, but the path likely runs lower first. The ParadiseTeam works multiple time frames, and they do not all agree, which is normal. The daily time frame stays bullish, showing a bullish divergence with bears losing momentum. The weekly frame stays bullish too.
The medium and short time frames lean bearish first. The expected sequence is a retrace into the $58,800 to $59,700 support zone, then a fresh push up. Think of the market as breathing: it inhales for a while, then has to exhale before the next inhale.
The wave structure fits that read. Price looks to be completing a five-wave move up on the medium frame, which typically hands off to a corrective retrace before continuation. On the high time frame, the $79,000 level is the resistance a later leg would aim for.
What would confirm the bounce?
Confluence at support, not just a touch of it. The team wants the drop into the $59,000 area to arrive as a clean corrective pattern. Then it wants overlapping signals to build there before treating the level as a buying opportunity. Until those confirmations stack, the level is a zone to watch, not a trigger. It is a probability read, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
Is July always bullish for Bitcoin?
No. Bitcoin has closed July green in most years since 2013, but it printed red Julys in 2023, 2019, 2016 and 2014. A small seasonal sample earns a few probability points at most. It should not drive your trading plan on its own, because live positioning matters far more than the calendar.
What is a liquidation imbalance?
It compares how much money would be force-closed if price moves up versus down. In this read, a slide to $59,400 would liquidate about $2.6 billion in longs, while a push to $68,000 clears roughly $1.34 billion in shorts. The heavier side shows where a cascade is more likely to run.
Why do positive funding rates matter here?
Funding is the fee that keeps perpetual futures tethered to the spot price. When about 78% of the market shows positive funding, most traders are paying to stay long. That crowded, one-sided positioning makes the downside more fragile, since a small drop can force those longs to close and add selling pressure.
Does the $79,000 target still hold?
It stays on the table as a high-time-frame resistance, supported by an $11 billion short-liquidation cluster near $75,000. The read is that Bitcoin more likely retraces toward the $59,000 support zone first, then works higher. It is a probability, not a promise, and it needs confirmation at support before continuation.
What does the Fear and Greed reading near 80 signal?
A value near 80 means the crowd is extremely greedy. On its own it is not a sell signal. Paired with price at resistance, fading momentum and positive funding, it suggests the push up is running low on fuel. The downside then looks more vulnerable than it appears.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
For Bitcoin, July has usually been one of the best month of the year. Can history repeat itself and [music] make Bitcoin pump towards $79,000? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My [music and singing] Crypto Paradise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen, everybody Scott.
This is Salmon from Market Move Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the final video of this week. So, in the intro of this video, I have shared with you this. Well, you can see that based on the history, July is really one of the best months for Bitcoin.
However, we are having data since 2013 and this basically, to be honest, mean nothing. All right? Just by assuming that we will hit another green color is like assuming that in the roulette, you will hit number 27, let's say, eight times in a row.
You can see that it's possible. It's very unlikely, but it's possible, ladies and gentlemen. So, you need to understand that what we are talking about are just probabilities, right? And as you can see, something so impossible as hitting number 27 eight times in a row can still happen, right?
So, imagine being a trader that has a losing strategy, going through a losing streak that might seem impossible for 3 years, but voila, you hit it. Third fourth year, you're going to hit such a losing streak you have never hit before. If you don't have a proper risk management, you are out, right?
Most traders hit it within 3 years of their trading. So, as a professional traders, all right, we are always optimizing everything we do in preparation that something so impossible like hitting number 27 in a roulette eight times in a row. Can happen. We are optimizing for that because our main goal is to survive in the long run, right?
So, the profitable the long-term profitable strategy that we have basically created for ourselves that has an edge and we are playing every single trade with higher probability of winning rather than losing can play out. That's why we need to slow the process down to give the probabilities enough time to play out, right?
But, ladies and gentlemen, a lot of people think, "All right. So, here I can see the data. Most of the times, the July is a big winning month, right? Or small losing month. So, because of that, I 100% believe that it's going to be a positive man month and I'm going to bet everything on it." This is suddenly a lot of traders having this kind of thinking process, which is wrong, right?
So, we can put this to this some probability points to this kind of data, but more because of contextually implementing this into other things that we are watching in the market. And also, by understanding what's actually going on behind July. So, we know what we know about July.
It's a summer month, right? Most of the people are going on a vacation. It's hot. That's That's why your thinking is not that sharp as during, for example, the winter months, right? And henceforth, most of the traders will either be holding sideways bias.
They will not be trading that much or they will be slow in their decision-making, okay? So, what can we assume from that is that there will be thin walls, buy walls and sell walls. Henceforth, we, if we are watching and we are always watching everything, right?
But, if we are watching then what's going on in the futures market and with the liquidation levels, we can actually adjust our system a little bit and start giving it much more importance, all right? So, then when we see if if there's a lot of clusters on one side, a lot of cluster on another side from the liquidation perspective, we put it much more importance than if we would wear in a
high liquidity markets, which is during the winter months, right? In during the winter months, what we know about winter months, a lot of people are at home, it's cold outside, right? So, a lot of people are at home and there is also Christmas, so the economy is moving, a lot of people are spending money, right?
So, people are having risk on bias, so they have more money, they they are more active on the markets, hence forth there will be more buy walls and sell walls and the liquidity clusters will not be that reactive, right? So, we will put less importance on them.
That means we'll be watching them, but we'll understand, all right, there is some kind of cluster at this level, but like a lot of people are active, right? So, they they might they might start closing the positions early earlier before hitting the liquidation level, they might be like putting more margin in to basically be able to do the margin call, etc.
So, all of this understanding of the months we are trading at is important, but not so much watching what happened during these months in the history, because it's really a very similar way of watching what happened in the past in the roulette, right?
What kind of number been hit in the past in the roulette, because you need to understand that once you start rotating the ball, all right, the odds are still the same. It's 1 to 38 that the number 27 will basically hit. Okay? So, it's always 1 to 38.
All right? And you need to understand that the same thing is about the months. So, it's 1 to 12. It's going to be positive or negative, right? So, you can see we have got some negative months as well in 2023, in 2019, in 2016, in 2014, right?
So, just to say that basically you can see that most of the times we are having positive months during July. It really means you can put some probability points to it, but basically you shouldn't be adjusting your trading strategy based on that. But, getting back to the liquidation levels, what actually is very interesting right here, ladies and gentlemen, is that if we take a look on the 7-day versus I will then
show you a higher time frame versus for example 180 days, yeah? So, first of all, let's start right here on the medium time frame. So, we can see as a professional traders we are very focused on imbalances, right? So, we can see a clear imbalance on the downside versus upside, yeah?
So, if you take a look, right now we are trading at around $62,580. If we move to the upside, if we will start pushing to the upside from the current market price, let's say to $68,000, we will liquidate 1.34 billion dollars in short positions.
What can we assume from it is that in this medium time frame there is not much aggressive short positions right now in the market, all right? However, if we take a look on the downside, we can see that right now and we are at resistance on the medium time frame.
We can see that right now on the medium time frame at this moment, all right? And if you have been watching the open interest, you also know we have been going through it in the previous video, that a lot in long positions below resistance.
Henceforth, the downside is being basically right now fragile. All right, it's dangerous to be in a long position right now because a lot of people are in a long position and you understand that we have these kind of domino effects, right? Then the market makers just need to sell a little bit.
They trigger the one liquidation level and when you are long, you need to automatically sell the contracts back. It puts pressure on the price and the domino effect starts being created, right? This power basically of selling the contracts will push the Bitcoin lower.
It will hit another liquidation level, etc. And we are having the domino effect. So, if you take a look on the opposite side, if we will from the current market price, which is $62,580, start pushing to the downside, let's say towards $59,400, we will liquidate $2.6 billion.
All right? So, you can see the huge imbalance. All right? Huge imbalance, ladies and gentlemen. And right now, we can assume henceforth that uh there's a higher probability of us starting to retrace and really liquidate those levels that are below us. And in a minute, we will start talking about how, based on our technical analysis, this actually is a favorable thing to do for the market makers because you always need to
understand, as a professional trader, that there are the dynamics between smart money, aka the entities that are handling majority, like 80% of the funds in the market being handled by only 20% of market participants, right? So, we call it smart money because most of the times they have some insider info.
And then, on the other side, there are 80% of the market participants that actually handle only 20% of the money that are circulating in the market. All right? And we call it dumb money, right? AKA retail. Because they don't have usually some insider info.
So, as a professional traders, what we want to do is to basically be away from the masses and try to understand what the smart money are doing, right? The minority of people. And how we basically can understand what they want to do is to understand the market dynamics and understand where the big money, where the smart money can actually make money.
Will they make more money if they start pushing the market to the upside, or will they actually be more profitable for them if they will start pushing the market to the downside, right? So, based on understanding this, you probably can then predict with a higher probability if the market is going to start pushing down or up, right?
So, let's take a look at it. And let's continue with understanding what the retail is feeling right now and how the retail is positioning itself. We already have some kind of bias, right? But as a professional traders, as we are trying to understand the levels importance based on confluences, we need to also take a look at confirmations if we try to understand what the retail versus the smart money are doing, right?
So, for example, is retail right now really feeling good about the market situation? Henceforth, are they [snorts] not only feeling good, but are they actually also creating some long positions? Well, we can confirm that very easily with our fear and greed index on our website mycryptoparadise.com and we can see that basically on the medium time frame, we are right now pushing into the number 80.
You know that the number 80 and 20, they are these kind of magical numbers because when we start pushing to the number 80, that means that the market is getting extremely greedy, aka the retail, the masses are getting extremely greedy. And if you can confluence it with some important resistance, which we can right now, and the price action starts to slow down, and we probably also start creating some bearish divergences that
we'll be talking about, it's creating this kind of architecture that what what we understand is that the retail is actually creating long positions, right? Pushing the buy button. The price, however, is not longer like going higher. The momentum is already decreasing, that means the bulls are losing the power, right?
And we can actually assume that somebody is distributing and absorbing the buying pressure, right? And probably who's going to do that if the market is right now, the masses are actually greedy? Well, the smart money are probably not letting the price to push higher, right?
It's just probabilities. Like and then you need to understand how aggressive it is, right? How like powerful the bearish divergences are, how powerful the resistances are, how much we are at or above that number 80 on the Fear and Greed Index. And you calculate the probability points, and you put this to this some kind of number, right?
And then you analyze another situation in the market, you put it another number. You get together those numbers, and then you get some final number, and then you take a look at your risk metrics that you have for your trading strategy, and then you can assume and basically understand for yourself, should I take the trade?
Do I have enough strong bias? Should am I leaning more bullish or bearish? And then if you understand, all right, the bearish, for example, the bears have like 80% probability of pushing the market to the downside, then you have a bias, right? High probability bias.
So, what you're going to do next as a professional trader? Start looking at the price action and start working with bearish trading tactics, right? So, that's that's your basically system as a professional trader, right? First, you understand the bias and then you try to understand if it's actually worth it to create a position.
So, you think the market's going to go down, it's a high probability, so you start using your trading tactics. So, you need to be patient. Is there actually good risk reward setup? Because the probabilities are already there, but then you need to really focus on great risk reward, right?
We'll be talking about it in a minute. But first of all, let me conclude this. So, retail is actually feeling greedy, but are they actually pushing the buy button? Can we confirm that somehow? Well, we can, because we can take a look at our crypto funding rates on our website micro2parlays.com and we can actually take a look and see that most of the majority of the market, 78% is right now having
positive funding rates, okay? And then we can take a look here at our probability points and we can see that on Bitcoin there is 16% probability of a long squeeze happening, right? And we can see that pretty much most of the coins in the top market, the top market cap coins they're heating up, all right?
So, we can confirm again that retail is actually feeling very greedy and the funding rates are positive, that means they're actually betting on their feeling. The retail is betting on their feeling, so they're actually pushing the buy button, which is making the downside, right, below us much more vulnerable.
So, we can confirm that yes, a lot of people are right now positioning themselves into long positions. That's why there is this dangerous cluster below us. If we all start pushing towards $59,400, we will liquidate $2.6 billion worth of long positions right now, right?
So, then from the price action perspective, like I will not be going through this because we have been already going through this in the previous video, but we understand that basically the market is not just pushing up with a straight line and down in a straight line, right?
We are actually having waves in the market. Somehow, someone can call it inhales and exhales. The market is is a breathing organism. So, as humans, we are not only inhaling, right? For months and then exhaling for months, we need to basically inhale and exhale periodically, right?
The market is acting the same way, right? So, if you take a look, like right now, there is a high probability that higher probability that we will start pushing to the downside as we have been already like discussing in the previous video, then start breaking above this resistance, right?
So, in the previous video, we have been already discussing this resistance that Bitcoin will be pushing here and with the highest probability, it's going to hold, right? So, we have been also taking a look because of the confluences. So, I will not be repeating those confluences, but you can see right here huge confluence with with the things I've been discussing already in the previous video, and then we have also confluences at
$63,800, yeah? So, we can actually create this kind of smaller zone from these two important levels that are confluenced by many important data like Fibonacci retracement, VPVR, historic price action, the wave structure from the previous perspective, multi-timeframe analysis on multiple time frames, these levels are being confirmed, etc.
Okay? So, then what actually we have created out of this analysis are two levels and very tight zone, $63,200 and $63,700. All right? So, this is a resistance zone for us on the medium time frame. All right? Medium time frame. So, what we can assume then also from the price action development is that we understand that with the highest probability, because the price action on the weekly time frame should look like
this, like right? It will be with the highest probability the ending diagonal. So, we have the level $79,000 from the high time frame perspective as a resistance, and we understand that this is going to be a corrective motive wave structure, aka a three-wave structure, ABC.
And we know that this exhale is actually an impulse, and it's subdivided itself as as an inhale into five smaller breaths, right? So, right now we already can take a look at this wave, right? And did we already created five moves in it?
All right? To the upside. If yes, the price action can really represent this kind of idea that we might very soon start to exhale. Because the market is inhaling, inhaling, inhaling, but because your lungs also have some limitations, the market's lungs also has some limitations, and you cannot inhale forever, right?
You need to exhale to catch the breath. So, then you can prepare for another inhale, right? So, basically is the market already about to catch the breath? So, we can really see that because of the of the dynamics of what we are creating right now on the momentum indicators, right?
That we have been already talking about. The market is actually starting to lose power. As you can see the price action is pushing to the upside and it's much better visible on the 1-hour time frame, but we will be discussing that on Tuesday.
Right now we'll be discussing only the 4-hour time frame, otherwise this video would be too long already. So, look, it's it's nicely visible here anyway. Look, so basically we are creating higher highs, but the momentum is already decreasing, right? So, the inhale is already losing power.
It's like you inhale inhale inhale and then basically it starts losing power. You are filling your lungs and you can't take it anymore, right? So, there is a possibility of a sip for sure, right? It's this kind of breathing technique, but it's much more likely that the lungs will not be able to keep on expanding themselves even though you can, but it's hard, right?
You know that you can keep on inhaling and then you can do this kind of final sip, right? It's possible, but we are working with probability. So, the probability is because we are also working with this kind of mechanics of following the path of least resistance.
The least resistance is not pushing to the upside right now and create this kind of sip. It's actually to start exhaling, okay? So, if you also take a look at the price action development, we can see that we have pretty much are completing the five-wave structure already, right?
So, 1 2 3, then we have got the fourth and right now we are creating the final fifth wave. So, the fourth is the alternation of the secondary wave. This was the secondary, this is the fourth, which is confirming that the third wave wasn't expanded one, hence forth the fifth wave right now is, all right?
So, a lot of confirmations, ladies and gentlemen, and that means with the highest probability we'll start pushing right now to the downside towards the support zone that we have been already generating in the previous video that is being created by money confluences again and here you can clearly see just two of them, two Fibonacci retracement levels.
By analyzing this inhale and it's basically made out of level, let's say $59,700 and $58,800, all right? So, this is going to be an important support zone that I will be watching for for the retrace of the of the exhale, all right? And here the exhale should be stopping and the market should start inhaling again from it.
But, more confirmations will be needed. For example, I will want to see that this is really having a pattern of an exhale as we are pushing to the downside, etc., okay? If you will start having confluences here, it will be a great buying opportunity.
But, about that in the next video, ladies and gentlemen. So, this is the support zone from the medium time frame perspective and then I have promised you that we will also move our focus on the 180 or we can even go to yearly, we can see that then a huge imbalance is being created, right?
If you will start pushing, let's actually do one year. If you will start pushing towards that seven even like $75,000, yeah, which is a little bit short from that $79,000, we will liquidate $11 billion worth of short positions, all right? If you will start pushing similar length to the downside towards $52,000 from the current market price, we will liquidate only $4 billion minus what we will liquidate if you will right now
starting to create the secondary wave, yeah? So, then you need to understand that really it supports this kind of bias that we might start pushing to the downside towards basically this zone that I have told you around that $59,000 and then start pushing to the upside and creating the 1 2 3 4 5 which will be first higher degree inhale, then exhale, [clears throat] and then the inhale in the C wave
structure which might be the one that pushes us up to that 79,000 dollars. Yeah, so on the daily time frame we are bullish. On the medium time frame short term time frame we are bearish and then again bullish. All right, but on the daily time frame there is nothing being changed.
We are having the bullish divergence. Bears are losing momentum and everything we have been discussing in the previous video. So, you just need to understand also that as a professional traders we are having multi-time frame analysis, right? So, on the daily time frame nothing changed.
On the weekly time frame same bullish, yeah? So, the price action development might look something like this. So, first, second, third, fourth, fifth. This going to be the higher degree higher degree first wave, then secondary wave, third, fourth, fifth. Since we know that from this expanded flat the C wave is actually an impulse.
That's That means it's going to be a five wave structure. Ladies and gentlemen, already very long video. You are excellent if you have finished watching here. You're either a Parabolic VIP member, that means that you're handling a lot of money and you really care about that you are following these moves in the market professionally and with with mindset of protection of your capital, all right?
So, kudos to you about that. Or that you really care about understanding the kind of dynamics between smart money and retail money and you're trying to improve yourself in trading, which also kudos to you about that. So, I will keep you updated in the next videos.
All right, we'll be discussing together a lot of stuff again. On Tuesday we will go more into the lower time frames. And until then, enjoy the rest of your weekend and I'll see you next time. Cheers. [music] >> Calm breath, clear eyes, work done.
Now or I no rush, no dread. [music] Right time full snap, clean setup, clean click. Execute like a pro, that's it. Clean [music] setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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