Bitcoin: Investor Count Hits 6-Year Low, Reaccumulation Zone at $55,000 to $44,000

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The number of crypto investors has fallen to a 6-year low. What can we expect from the [music] crypto markets when the liquidity keeps on draining and there is not enough traders that [music] are trading it on daily basis? And how's that going to affect Bitcoin in the upcoming few months?

[music] Let's analyze. >> My [music and singing] Crypto Paradise >> Hello ladies and gentlemen of scope. This is someone from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week.

So, let's firstly, before we look at Bitcoin, understand the amount of traders right now is at 6 years low in the crypto market. The similar reading we have got back in 2020 in quarter four and for it causes market to have low liquidity first off and secondly, the the traders that are right now left in the market are usually the experienced ones, all right?

The ones that have a lot of knowledge and manage their as well. And that's also what's creating this kind of price action. Let's have a look also what's going on behind the scenes so we understand that before we can start creating the macro bearish bottom and before we can start having a new bull market, the institutions and the whales that are right now left and it's no longer about retail, right?

Because as you can see, the retail is no longer in like majority of cases involved in the crypto market right now or on day trading basis. So, right now we need to shake out the big institutions, right? The institutions will not be shaken out by fear.

They will be forced to be shaken out because if they will not sell their Bitcoins in a loss, they will go bankrupt. And it was happening since 2011 every single time. This is how we have been creating the macro bottom, right? So, if you have been around and watching these videos or you have been with us in Paradise VIP, you know that we have been aggressively distributing Bitcoin here at $109,000 and

then since $121,000, we have understood that the market will be breathing in five breaths and take us towards this zone that is made out of $55 to $44,000. This since beginning or right since the high prices of Bitcoin above $100,000 is our aggressive reaccumulation zone.

As you can see, we are getting close to it, but we are not yet there. And even though if we would be already there, we are not getting the confirmations from other indicators that we are watching that the market bottom, the macro market bottom is in, all right?

So, what we are waiting for is the institutions. First of all, we need to get below zero. So, if we zoom in, ladies and gentlemen, right now, we can see that we are getting close to the magical number zero on this index, but we are not yet there.

And together with that, I want to see really some frustration among these institutions. So, I want to see some red numbers and be below that number zero for some quite time. So, the smart money that are handling and be managing their risk well and professionally, they have enough time to reaccumulate and absorb all of that selling pressure that these institutions, these Bitcoin mining companies, Strategy, MicroStrategy, etc.

These kind of institutions that basically were not been very diligent in their in their strategy trading strategy and investing strategy, start selling. So, the smart money have enough time to really absorb that selling pressure, right? And basically create this kind of exchange of hands zone, which I believe will happen right here in at $55,000 to $44,000 the same way it was created, for example, with the $24,000 and 16,000 dollar boundary zone

back in 2020 when we have been creating this macro bearish bottom. Yeah, so I want for the smart money to have enough time to really absorb all of that selling pressure and to create the macro bottom before we start pushing again towards 169,000 dollars, right?

So we are watching also for the smart money on this indicator trading volume. We are watching only the spot, right? So we are not interested in the futures in the derivative exchange volume because we know that the derivative are usually managed by retail and not really the smart money, the smart smart money, right?

Because if you are managing like billions and billions of dollars, you don't need leverage, right? So you need to have a proper strategy of reaccumulation and then distribution. And you don't need to to have like leverage to make a lot of money. You are not involved in trading, right?

You are only focusing on absorbing and then distributing. So we want to see the absorption of that selling pressure the same way we have seen it for example right here back in 2020 and in 2022. Basically during the same moments where we have been seeing the realized losses, right?

The the institutions been realizing their losses. So we want to see basically this kind of confluence, red below zero for some quite time that is having at least three lower lows, all right? Together with that, I want to see higher highs on the accumulation from the spot exchanges.

That will tell me also if you'll be technically in my zone 55 to 44,000 dollars that the bottom the macro bottom is being formed and that we can start push towards 169,000 dollars. So this is just the repetition from the weekly time frame perspective.

Now about the price action. So let's have a look. We understand that we should be doing that basically final push to the downside in five small breaths, right? And we have been already creating four of them. So, inhale, exhale, inhale, exhale. And right now we are having the expanded final inhale that created already 1 2 3 4.

And right now we are creating the fifth wave. As you already know, we have been discussing that in the previous videos, the final fifth wave in order for us to have this kind of slow price action in this zone to really allow the smart money to absorb all of the selling pressure that hopefully from the institutions will be coming soon.

We probably will take the final fifth wave in a pattern and formation of an ending diagonal, right? So, if you are being educated in our MCP free university on our website marketparadis.com, as you know, we are sharing with you what the paradise team is basically the knowledge of the paradise team, what we are using before we make some trading decision.

So, one of them is our these structures. And you know that the ending diagonals are usually visible at the final structure waves of that impulses, right? And they subdivide itself into five small waves. All of them are corrective motive waves. Remember that. This is going to be important as we go lower into the lower time frames and we will analyze the price action there.

So, the ending diagonal with the highest probability already already finished the ABC pattern, right? Right here. And I do believe that there is a very high probability that before we continue to go lower, we should at least touch this moving average trendline that is at $73,000.

But as you already know from the previous videos, there is a lot of confluences at $79,000, right? For example, the CME futures gap and other technical important levels. So, there is a possibility that if we will start pushing to the upside, which is still with a high probability, before we continue to go much lower, like the maximum level for me would be that $79,000.

As you can see, it's nicely confluencing, for example, with the 786 Fibonacci retracement level as well from the weekly time frame perspective. So, ladies and gentlemen, right now, from the weekly time frame perspective, it seems like we have finished the first wave of that ending diagonal, which might be this one.

This is actually upward, but the same way it's downward. The structure is the same. So, I want to see the secondary corrective motive wave structure. Yeah, that that's it. That's That's for me. How How am I going to use it? Well, because I understand that the bears are in a power right now, and I want to be trading always in a trend.

If we will get that push to the upside, there will appear again a beautiful swing short trading opportunities, right? A beautiful ones. So, I will be using that. Uh not only it will be high probability, but also a great risk reward. So, definitely I will be using that for creating some short trading setups, and then we will create because in an expectation that there is a high probability that we will start

creating the third corrective motive wave structure, then the fourth wave, and then the fifth wave will be basically stopping and consolidating in this zone, yeah? So, the price action might not look exactly like this, but what am I focusing on right now is is definitely not like from trading perspective.

So, like the there are few perspectives, yeah? Position trading that is unchanged. You know that we have been aggressively distributing right here and right here. And for my aggressive reaccumulation of my Bitcoin, if you are in Burry Summit VIP, you know exactly we are doing in the original membership.

Basically, we we withdraw the profits from day trading on a quarter basis. Sometimes longer, sometimes we are basically withdrawing that faster, but we are actually withdrawing our profits from exchanges where we are doing our day trading tactics and strategies. And we are actually compounding those profits in hard wallets.

And then in the hard wallets, we are rotating between Bitcoin, USDT, and PAXG, which is digital gold, yeah? So, right now, you know that I'm mostly still in USDT. I'm talking about it since year and since year that I have it in USDT.

And so far, the patience paying off, right? I can leak this information. Majority of of our portfolio on that hard wallet is still in USDT. So, for me to be able to start aggressively reaccumulating, I want to see the signs that I have been I have been talking about, right?

And definitely in these videos, even if you are not in Paradise VIP, I will I will keep you updated about all of these stuff, all right? So, that's that's position sizing strategy, yeah, of trading. But right now, about the kind of day trading strategies, I'm waiting to create some nice swing trading setup, short setup for higher prices.

For me, creating swing short positions at this price right here is not only bad risk reward, all right? It's a bad risk reward, but also the probabilities are suddenly currently quite low that the next big move is going to be to the downside.

It's not impossible, as you know, everything can happen in crypto, but it's not enough high probability for me, and the risk reward is not that good for me to create fresh swing short positions right here, okay? So, for swing short positions, I'm still looking for higher prices, all right?

That's that's all what professional trading is about. Understanding what what is a higher or lower probability, understanding risk reward, and then having a patience to wait for proper setup in the market, right? So, this is from the weekly time frame perspective. Let's zoom, however, on the daily.

So, as you know, with the highest probability, we have finished the first the first wave of that ending diagonal, right? So, as you can see, that's this one, ABC. It's a corrective motive structure, aka an exhale. Right now, before we have been waiting for the market to develop basically the A wave structure.

The A wave structure from the higher degree perspective would need to complete, right? As we have got right here, if this would be a zigzag towards the $79,000, it would need to complete clear five wave structure on the daily time frame perspective to the upside, the same way it created to the downside first five wave structure right here, 1 2 3 4 5.

What we have got, however, was 1 2 3, and then I have told you like here, we have been breaking already below, and I have told you, "All right, this still can be a leading diagonal, but we cannot we cannot go below the the low of the secondary wave." As you can see, currently, we are already below.

We have not closed the daily candle below it, as you can see, but I have told you in the previous video that already a week below it would decrease the probabilities for me drastically, right? And as you can see, we are already at the local local low of this push to the downside, which finished at $59,000.

We have not yet closed the daily candle, not even below the important 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level, but for me, the possibility of creating a zigzag is already close to zero, all right? However, the probabilities of pushing towards $79,000 before we will continue much lower is not yet completely diminished, all right?

Because we might still be creating this corrective motive structure as expanded flat pattern, all right? And what do we know about expanded flat pattern? It's a corrective motive structure, and it subdivides itself into three smaller waves, A, B, and C. And as you can see, the A and B are corrective wave structures.

That means that they are made out of three smaller waves, yeah? So, this very well might have been A wave, right? And again, what do we know about the A wave of the expanded flat, or it might be even a running flat, I will I will dig into that once we jump into lower time frame, is that it also subdivides itself into three smaller waves, right?

A, B, C. And this needs to be five waves, and this as well, and the B wave needs to be three waves or variations of thereof. So, if we shift our focus right here, it very well can be, right? So, if we take a look, this A wave subdivided itself into five smaller waves.

This B wave subdivided itself into three smaller waves. It was running flat, actually. And the final C wave subdivided itself into five smaller waves as well. So, it very well can still be A wave of an expanded flat. And right now we are just finishing the C wave, yeah?

Again, it very well like goes into the price action development that we want to see in the higher degree B waves. 1 2 3 4 5, then we have got the B wave, 1 2 3, and right now we are finishing with the highest probability the C wave, 1 2 3 4 5, all right?

We can go below the beginning of the A wave, the same way we could have go above with this with this B wave, above the above the start of the previous A wave, right? In this bullish market structure on the weekly time frame.

So, this was actually the important flat pattern, right? Where we have got the A wave, then the B wave, which went above the start of the A wave, and then right now we are completing the motive wave structure, the final one, right? The C wave.

So, the same way we can actually dump with this B wave with this B wave below the start of this A wave, and then still we can create a C wave much higher before we resume the price action in the previous trend, which is downwards, right?

So, it's still it's still might look like this, ladies and gentlemen, and it will be very well inside of that ending diagonal before we might be pushing much lower, all right? So, the price action development is right now very important for me. You know that like for us from day trading perspectives in Barry's VIP, we have been going aggressively not aggressive like on this market situation in this market situation aggressively on

long positions right here, and as you know, we have been already taking profits on most of them. So, Bitcoin Cash, we have been already securing target one. XLM, we have been securing target two before the the crash basically happened, right? And then we have start pushing to the downside.

And we have been going kind of aggressive during these market conditions on on some futures long positions, right? But here, we are no longer like I can I can reveal you this kind of information. I'm not getting with the team aggressive on long positions at this moment.

It might change very fast, but at this moment, we are not getting like aggressive on long positions the same way we have been getting aggressive right here. Because the probabilities, as you know, been extremely extremely positive for continuation to the upside. We have been waiting for our confirmations, one, two, right?

So far, we are at the same level, but I'm not getting yet aggressive on some long positions in expectation of the trolley towards that $79,000 as my maximum target of that possible rally to the upside because I'm waiting for more confirmation. So, what is positive is that there is a high probability of ABC formation being completed given that the C wave already completed five wave structure, right?

If you take a look on the Fibonacci retracement level, we have almost touched the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement support at $57,000, but not just yet. And this fifth wave hence forth because the third wave was an expanded might be expanded and we might go much lower, all right?

$57,000 is my support. The next one is going to be at $54,000, all right? So, 57 and $54,000 heavy support. If you take a look if you take a look on the momentum, we can see that the bears are losing momentum, all right?

The price action created lower low, but the momentum indicator so far is not able to really push with the strength of the price action. So, the momentum of the bears is decreasing, which is increasing the probabilities that we might start seeing a reversal soon, which is again decreasing probability for me of entering right now the short positions.

Not only the probability is low, but also the risk reward is very bad. As you can see immediate supports at 57 and 54, if I would wouldn't like to be shaken from a volatility, I would need to place my stop loss at least at 67,000.

As you can see the risk reward for many traders might be cool, but not for professional traders, yeah? Suddenly we have a lot of traders around that are running also crypto signal services that basically give you this kind of signal and they are completely fine with it, all right?

Where you have target one right here and your stop loss stop loss is all right here. So, you're taking profits and closing the trade right here here your stop loss is right here. Obviously, in 99% of cases you will hit profit, but when you when you basically hit loss and you will go to the losing streak and you know that the basically the trading is made out of winning streaks and losing

streaks, right? And your job as a professional risk manager, which is trading is basically about managing your risk, is that during the winning streaks you can make more money than you lose during the losing streaks, right? So, with this kind of risk reward it's close to impossible.

All right? So, for me I'm basically this is not interesting for me for for for creating a short position. Not interesting for me, all right? From the risk reward perspective and also from the probability perspective currently. However, we might have a confirmation of a bullish divergence very soon.

As you can see the momentum is already decreasing a little bit, but if you want to have much higher probability, I would wait also for bullish cross, yeah? Waiting for the blue line crossing above the red line. Confluence with some nice bullish reading from the RSI, which is not yet there.

As you can see there is no bullish divergence in there and stochastic RSI is nice for bulls, looking to the upside in this zone, but again, not enough confirmations. If you want to even more confirmations, if you are being very safe right here and truly depends on your trading tactic and on your previous results and how you managing your risk, how aggressive or defensive you currently are being with your trades taking.

I I'm bro I I would wait basically I would wait for development of at least five and three, all right? That means if this is finished and we would be creating the the impulse to the upside, which would be the C wave, that might take us up to the $79,000.

I want to see I want to see the five wave structure to the upside and three wave structure to the downside and this will be a high probability for me given that we will get confirmations from other time frames and other other indicators as well, and it will create a beautiful risk reward opportunity, right?

Because I know the invalidation will be the below the previous low. Of course, I will be doing some Fibonacci retracement as well reading, so I will be definitely not just placing it blindly below the low because I know that basically that's being targeted by the bots and market makers as well because most of the people when they place stop loss placing it below the low.

So, I will be a little bit more smarter about my stop loss because I'm focusing on not being wicked out during the noise, right? I want to be there for the real movement without being wicked out, but I will create pro I will create probably a trade and we will start getting aggressive again on long positions because I want to I want to catch the most impulsive next inhale of the market.

So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated. Until then, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy. Also, very quickly, I just want to show you what's happening on the 4-hour time frame from our live crypto fear and greed index. We are touching into the number 20, so market is right now in a fear.

If we take a look, however, so market is fearful, all right? But, is the market actually betting on that? Are they fearful and are they really expecting that the price will continue to push to the downside? Well, if we take a look on our crypto funding rates on our website mycryptoparadise.com, we can actually see that the funding rates is getting cold, right?

It's getting cold. They are getting in negative numbers. So, we can see that the short squeeze probability is increasing. It's not that high. It's 15% on Bitcoin, all right? The probability of a short squeeze, but it's much better than having a long squeeze probability, right?

So, what we can assume from this? All right, the the market is getting fearful. We are getting towards our magical number 20. Plus, we You see actually some people are already already betting on that. They are betting that the market will go to the downside.

So they have created short positions right here close to our support, which usually means all right, given that we are also seeing that the momentum is decreasing that somebody is absorbing that selling pressure, right? So because we see a lot of short positions coming in, but momentum is decreasing hence forth creating something like bullish divergence and we can see that who is actually creating the selling pressure?

Well, retail because we are seeing that the market is fearful right now, but the price action is not already following up and we are at support. Well, we can see that somebody is probably absorbing the selling pressure and hence forth now the probability is much higher that we will start seeing a reversal to the upside.

That means the next bigger move is going to be to the upside, which is decreasing the probability short straight. All right, so that's just a very simple explanation of what I'm looking at at this moment, ladies and gentlemen. So thank you so much for watching.

Have a great rest of your Thursday and I will see you again on a Saturday. Until then, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy and focus on risk first before profit, all right? Focus on your process, don't focus on the outcome. If you will be focusing a process, trading process that has an edge, all right?

And you know that you have back tested that and it's basically is having an edge and during market cycles can remain profitable in a larger sample of trades. Just follow your process, stick with it, all right? And focus on the process because the outcome will follow.

It will be the side product of a great process. So, stick with it, be patient, be disciplined with it and I will see you back on Saturday. Cheers. >> I'm built clear eyes, work done. Now I know rush, no dread, >> [music] >> right.

full snap. Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like a pro. That's it. Clean setup.