In short: In this session Simon reads Bitcoin as bearish overall but likely to bounce first. He notes crypto investor numbers at a 6-year low, a market now driven by institutions rather than retail. His reaccumulation zone sits at $55,000 to $44,000, reached only after institutions are forced to sell. He sees a possible push up toward $73,000, with a maximum of $79,000 (CME gap, 786 Fibonacci) before price resumes lower. Local low was $59,000; support sits at $57,000 and $54,000. Fear and Greed reads 20, funding is turning negative, and short squeeze probability on Bitcoin is around 15%. He waits for higher prices to short.
Why does Simon say Bitcoin is entering a danger zone?
Because the number of crypto investors has fallen to a 6-year low. Simon compares this to 2020 quarter four. Thin participation means low liquidity, and the traders left are mostly experienced. That shift changes how price behaves and who really moves it now.
Who is driving the market if retail has left?
Institutions and whales, Simon says, not retail. He argues retail is largely absent from daily trading. To build a macro bottom, the big institutions must be shaken out. They will not leave from fear alone; they get forced out when holding a loss threatens bankruptcy.
Simon frames this as a repeating pattern he has watched since 2011. Each macro bottom, in his reading, formed when over-leveraged or careless institutions realized losses. He names Bitcoin mining companies and Strategy (MicroStrategy) as the type of holder that eventually capitulates into a bottom.
Where is Simon’s reaccumulation zone for Bitcoin?
His zone is $55,000 to $44,000. Simon says he distributed Bitcoin aggressively at $109,000, then again from $121,000, expecting price to “breathe” lower in five moves toward this band. He compares it to the $24,000 to $16,000 boundary that formed the 2020 bottom.
He is clear the market is close to this zone but not there yet. Even if price arrived, Simon says he would still want confirmation from his other indicators before calling the macro bottom complete. Location alone is not the signal.
What confirmations is Simon waiting for?
He watches a realized-loss style index that must fall below zero and stay red for some time, printing at least three lower lows. Alongside that, Simon wants higher highs on spot accumulation. He tracks spot volume only, not futures, because derivatives skew toward retail.
The logic he gives: whales managing billions do not need leverage. They absorb selling pressure and later distribute. So Simon watches spot buying rise while forced institutional selling shows up as realized losses. That confluence, inside his price zone, would tell him the exchange of hands is underway.
What is the ending diagonal and five breaths idea?
Simon describes the final push lower as five small “breaths”: inhale, exhale, repeated. He says four are done and the fifth is forming. He expects that fifth leg to take the shape of an ending diagonal, which subdivides into five corrective-motive waves.
This is drawn from the Elliott-wave style structures Simon teaches in the free MCP education on the website. He treats the ending diagonal as a typical closing pattern of an impulse. He walks the weekly and daily timeframes to show where he thinks the current wave sits.
How high could Bitcoin bounce before going lower?
Simon sees a realistic touch of a moving-average trendline near $73,000, with a maximum of $79,000. He stacks confluence at $79,000: a CME futures gap, the 786 Fibonacci retracement from the weekly, and other technical levels. Above that, his upside case weakens sharply.
He stresses this bounce is still a high-probability move, not a certainty. On the daily, Simon says a clean zigzag toward $79,000 is now close to zero probability because price broke below a key wave low. But an expanded flat or running flat structure could still carry price up before the trend resumes down.
Where are Simon’s key Bitcoin support levels?
The local low printed at $59,000. Simon flags $57,000 and $54,000 as heavy support, with $57,000 near the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement. He notes the daily candle had not yet closed below that Fibonacci level when he recorded, so the picture was still developing.
Why is Simon not shorting Bitcoin right now?
Because the risk-reward is poor and the probability is low. With support at $57,000 and $54,000 just below, a sensible stop would sit around $67,000. Simon says that ratio does not work for a professional, so a fresh swing short here is not interesting to him. How he sizes stops and positions is covered in our crypto position sizing guide.
He also sees the bears losing momentum: price made a lower low, but his momentum indicator did not follow with strength. That divergence raises the odds of a reversal, which further reduces his appetite to short at current prices. He wants higher prices first.
What would make Simon short Bitcoin?
A push up toward $79,000 that builds a clean five-wave move up, then a three-wave move down, with confirmation across timeframes and indicators. Simon wants a bullish momentum cross, supportive RSI, and stochastic RSI aligned. Then a swing short offers both better probability and better risk-reward.
What do funding rates and Fear and Greed say here?
Simon reads Fear and Greed at 20, so the market sits in fear near his “magical” level. But funding rates are turning cold and negative, meaning traders are betting downward. He puts the short-squeeze probability on Bitcoin around 15%, low but better than a long-squeeze setup.
Simon reads Bitcoin’s positioning live from funding data. You can watch the same cooling funding and short-squeeze signals he describes on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page, updated across all major exchanges.
His read of the confluence: fear is rising and retail is shorting into support, yet price is not following through and momentum is fading. To Simon that suggests someone is absorbing the selling. That tilts the next bigger move toward the upside, which is exactly why he waits to short.
How is Simon positioned in his own portfolio?
Mostly in USDT, and he says he has been for over a year. Simon rotates his hard-wallet holdings between Bitcoin, USDT, and PAXG (digital gold). He withdraws day-trading profits from exchanges, then compounds them in cold storage rather than leaving them exposed.
He describes taking profits on earlier longs, naming Bitcoin Cash at target one and XLM at target two before the drop. But at current prices Simon says he is not getting aggressive on new longs. He waits for his confirmations before reaccumulating Bitcoin in size.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin reaccumulation zone?
Simon’s aggressive reaccumulation zone is $55,000 to $44,000. He says he distributed Bitcoin at $109,000 and from $121,000, expecting a five-part move lower into this band. Price is close but not there yet, and he still wants confirmation before calling the macro bottom complete.
How high could Bitcoin bounce first, per Simon?
Simon sees a possible push toward a moving-average trendline near $73,000, with $79,000 as his maximum. He cites a CME futures gap and the 786 Fibonacci retracement as confluence at $79,000. He treats this bounce as a high-probability move before price likely resumes lower.
Why won’t Simon short Bitcoin at current prices?
The risk-reward is poor. With support at $57,000 and $54,000 just below, a sensible stop sits near $67,000, which Simon says does not work for a professional. Bears are also losing momentum, raising reversal odds. He waits for higher prices before creating swing short setups.
What is the short-squeeze probability Simon mentions?
Simon reads the short-squeeze probability on Bitcoin at around 15% in this session. He calls it low but notes it is better than a long-squeeze setup. He pairs this with cooling, negative funding rates and a Fear and Greed reading of 20 to argue the next move may be upward.
How is Simon positioned in his portfolio?
Simon says he is mostly in USDT and has been for over a year. He rotates his hard-wallet holdings between Bitcoin, USDT, and PAXG. He compounds day-trading profits into cold storage and is not getting aggressive on new longs until his confirmations appear.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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