In short: Simon and the ParadiseTeam read Bitcoin as short-term bullish but capped: price may push toward $79,000 max before rejecting. Galaxy Digital moved $175M to exchanges, adding sell-pressure risk. The daily stays bullish and the weekly bearish, so Simon sees the bigger next move likely to the downside toward $44,000.
Why does Galaxy moving $175M to exchanges matter?
Galaxy Digital moved $175 million of Bitcoin to exchanges, a flow that can hint at possible selling. Simon treats this as sell-pressure risk, not a certainty. He weighs it against price structure and probabilities instead of reacting, calling exchange inflows just one clue among many in his analysis.
Coins arriving on exchanges is one signal, not a verdict. Simon checks positioning and squeeze fuel on the funding board before deciding whether the path of least resistance really favors buyers or sellers.
What are Simon’s key Bitcoin levels right now?
Simon’s map is clear. His maximum upside target for this push is $79,000, while his longer bias points down toward $44,000. Nearer term he flags resistance at $64,000, then a strong wall around $65,000 to $67,000, with Fibonacci confluence near $66,400 and $69,000.
On the 4-hour chart, resistance sat near $63,000 to $64,000, with rejections on July 6 and July 7. Price then broke above and retested it as support. Simon calls this a solid reclaim, backed by rising volume on the break and fading volume on the retest.
If Bitcoin rejects the wall, Simon eyes support around $61,000 and $59,000 from Fibonacci levels. He revisits these zones from his earlier Bitcoin analysis as potential buying areas, but only with confirmation.
Did the ParadiseTeam take a Bitcoin trade?
Yes. The ParadiseTeam opened a scalp long on Bitcoin at the reclaim and already took a first take-profit at $64,000, the strong resistance Simon had flagged. He treats this as a short-term tactical trade, separate from the bigger swing and position view.
Simon notes the team accumulated lower, near the daily and weekly high-probability zone. The scalp long is a different timeframe play, sized and managed on its own terms rather than as a long-hold entry.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
Not comfortably, per Simon. From a swing and position-trading view he sees weak risk-reward buying into a strong wall. A correct entry would need a stop below the fourth wave to avoid getting wicked out during summer’s thin, volatile liquidity.
Simon stresses waiting for multiple confirmations before committing. That means confluence, smart money joining longs, and a clear edge. His approach to stops and risk and position sizing decides how much, if anything, to risk.
Which way is Bitcoin’s next big move likely?
To the downside, most likely. Simon keeps the weekly bearish and the daily bullish, yet sees limited room above. Because upside looks capped near the resistance wall, he judges the bigger move over the coming days as more likely lower, toward his $44,000 target.
Beyond that, $44,000 could conclude this smaller bear market. Simon then sees room for a third cyclical wave toward $169,000. He stays flexible, ready to ride with the market if price proves the bias wrong.
Frequently asked questions
Did Galaxy Digital sell its Bitcoin?
Simon does not confirm a sale. The transcript only says Galaxy Digital moved $175 million of Bitcoin to exchanges, which can create sell pressure if they choose to sell. Simon analyzes the probabilities and price structure rather than assuming the coins will hit the market immediately.
What is Simon’s maximum Bitcoin upside target?
Simon’s maximum upside target for this push is $79,000. He frames it as a ceiling, not a promise, tied to an ending diagonal fifth wave. He stresses price does not have to reach it, and that upside looks limited from current levels near strong resistance.
Where does Simon expect Bitcoin to bottom?
Simon has called $44,000 since 2025 as the level that could conclude this smaller bear market. If it holds, he sees potential for a third cyclical wave higher, possibly toward $169,000. Everything depends on confirmations and how the wave structure unfolds along the way.
Did the ParadiseTeam take a Bitcoin trade?
Yes. Simon says the ParadiseTeam opened a scalp long at the reclaim and already booked a first take-profit at $64,000, a resistance he had highlighted. He describes it as a short-term tactical scalp, separate from the team’s longer swing and position-trading stance on Bitcoin.
Is it a good time to swing long Bitcoin?
Not for Simon. From a swing and position-trading view, he sees poor risk-reward buying into resistance near $66,000 to $67,000. A proper entry would need a stop below the fourth wave, and summer’s thin liquidity raises the risk of getting wicked out.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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