Bitcoin: Galaxy’s $175M Exchange Move and Simon’s Levels

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175 million dollars worth of Bitcoin is the amount [music] Galaxy Digital just moved to exchanges. What's going to happen with the Bitcoin price if they decide to sell? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> My Crypto Paradise >> Hello ladies and gentlemen of My Crypto Paradise.

This is someone from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, previously we talked about that Bitcoin on the daily time frame is bullish with the highest probability.

We saw multiple confluences of why we might see a reversal towards $79,000. So, as you can see, we are right now doing a nice movement to the upside and we are trying to go as high as possible with the bullish strength that we have at this moment.

We also understood that this is going to be a sea wave, which is an impulsive mode wave and we will subdivide itself into five smaller waves, right? So, not only we have been predicting what's going to happen on the daily time frame, but as a professional traders, we need the context from as many time frames as as possible to make sure that we are doing as sound decisions as possible making sure

that the edge is on our side. So, on the weekly time frame, we have been also taking a look what's going on with the price action, right? So, since around the $121,000, you know that we are predicting that we will start crashing towards $44,000.

In fact, we have been already talking about that back in 2025 because the major bull run was actually finished already here at around $109,000, right? And since this was an opposite pattern that we are right now creating on the daily time frame, there's a lot of to learn from it.

All right, so as you can see, since we are in the ending diagonal that we will explain, it's basically the final wave structure that will hopefully close at that 55 to 44,000 dollars. Hopefully because we are predicting and we are waiting for that with such a patience for such a long time.

And usually the market is really nicely rewarding the patient people. The like Warren Buffett said that, right? Markets are this wagging machine that transform wealth from impatient to patient. And there's a lot of truth in it because sitting on your hands waiting for the right setup is not always easy.

Sometimes over trading is actually much more easier, right? So, we've been waiting for this. We have waited a long time. And we have been talking about multiple times the price action that will take us towards this level with the highest probability. And as you can see here, I've pointed from that 109,000 dollars dropped towards around 80,000 dollars drop, I've marked it with an A.

All right, so this was A wave, B wave. And take a look on the daily time frame. A wave, B wave, and the B wave actually went below the start of the A wave. The same thing happened on the weekly time frame. Take a look at this, but it was just an opposite direction.

A wave. Here was the start of the A wave, and this is the B wave. And then we started the C wave. So, as you can see, this is pretty common pattern. How do we call this pattern? An expanded flat, right? So, take a look at this.

A wave, B wave, and right now with the highest probability we are creating the C wave. And because on the weekly time frame, as you can see, we have also said that this is going to be five waves to the outside. So far, we are unfolding the price action exactly with that five waves, right?

So, we have created 1 2 3 4. And right now, since the third wave was an an extended one, aka you cannot see the [snorts] subwaves of this wave structure very clearly, there was a high probability that the fifth wave is going to be an extended one.

And because the fifth wave is the ending wave of the overall C wave structure, it's sometimes ending as an ending diagonal. An ending diagonal is again this special pattern that subdivides itself into five smaller subwaves. And all of them are corrective motive waves, aka exiles.

So, they don't have enough power to start a new trend, okay? So, it goes in the same direction as the previous trend, and it's created It's It's kind of like this It's nothing aggressive like we have had in the third wave and in the third wave of this fifth wave.

It's kind of sideways. So, we have created ABC, first wave of that ending diagonal. And right now, you know that the probability is very high that we are creating a secondary wave of that ending diagonal. And we will talk about why. And it might take us There is again a lot of confluences, as you know from the previous videos, at the level $79,000.

So, that doesn't mean we need to go there, but it would be my maximum target for this push to the upside. Yes, $79,000. Then, with the highest probability, we will create the third wave of that ending diagonal, then the fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave.

There is again loads of probabilities that we will finish at that $44,000 that we are calling since 2025 for, right? So, $44,000 might be the magical number which will conclude this smaller bear market, and then we might start the third cyclical wave that might take us towards $169,000.

At this moment, what we care about is this next wave structure. So, we are trying to understand how it's up-folding. And thanks to that, again, it will either increase the probabilities of creating a next wave to the downside, or it will increase or decrease the probability.

So, as a professional traders, we might have some bias, but we are also flexible. Like a water, right? Water also, as it's flowing in the nature, it's not trying to fight the rock in front of it, right? It goes around it. That's why water is the most powerful element on Earth, because it's flexible, and it can adapt to its environment.

Likewise, the worst traders, I would say, are very stubborn. Crazy big ego. Most of us do, but bad traders especially, they have a big ego. So, they don't like to be proven wrong. So, when they think that something is going to happen, and the market will show them a different situation, and they lose money because of it, they are very angry, and they want to basically show the market that they are

right. So, they start overtrading. Then, they start fighting the market. So, they start taking decisions they shouldn't, because again, they were not flexible. They couldn't just let the market show them the direction and go with the market flow. So, if the market will show us, "Look, we actually can go much higher." We are going to be flexible as a professional traders and we'll be okay.

I'm not going to fight you, market. I'm going to ride with you, right? So, it's always about monitoring the market and being flexible with your decisions. Don't We We are not stubborn as professional traders with our opinions on the market and we are flexible to change our decisions and directional thinking about what the market might do next.

But, at this moment, because we play with probabilities, discipline is our edge, not excitement. So, the probabilities right now showing us that the edge actually lean to the upside. There's a higher probability that we'll start pushing to the upside, not only because of this price action.

That's just one piece of the puzzle, but because of all of the things that we are discussing in these videos, right? So, let's right now zoom in and let's understand the price action behind this potential move to the upside, yeah? So, what we have been discussing afterwards in the previous videos also was the structure of the C wave, right?

So, because we know that with the highest probability it will up fold itself into five smaller waves, the same way on the weekly time frame, we are up folding the C wave also in that five wave structure. We know something similar is going to happen with this C wave, right?

So, right now, the high probability is that we have not yet finished the first wave and we are about to still see the secondary wave. Then we will have the third wave, then the fourth wave, which should be alternation of the secondary wave, and then the final fifth wave might potentially take us up to that $79,000.

This is right now still the highest probability play. So, in the previous videos, we also went through the lower time frames, right? So, we looked at the 4-hour medium time frame. And on the medium time frame, we have marked this zone as a resistance, as you can see right here.

Resistance. It was around 63 to 64 thousand dollars. As you can see, it worked for some time as a resistance. We have seen some rejection out of it two times, actually. Once back in 6th of July, and then 7th of July again. So, rejection, rejection.

On this price action to the upside, we have broke above this resistance. And because of this retest that you can see right here, there's a high probability of a successful reclaim of this resistance into a support. If you take a look, the price action wasn't that much confident going towards this zone, but then we have picked up on strength as we started to break above it, right?

So, rising volume, and then the bearish decline in volume on the retest. So, this is exactly the thing that we always discuss together in these videos, how to spot a successful reclaim, not to get trapped into fakeouts. And this seems pretty solid. Pretty solid reclaim.

So, am I opening a long position right now? Well, the Paradise team been actually opening a scalp long position right here. We have created a long trade with the Paradise team, and we have just taken first take profit target on our Bitcoin long position at $64,000 because that was a very strong resistance.

You know that we talked about this resistance, $64,000. Next one is, as you can see, around 65 to $67,000. That's going to be the next resistance, and we will be talking about why we might actually hit it. So, the price action. Let's take a look at the price action because in the previous video, we already marked this as a five moves to the upside, and we have concluded that with the highest

probability, this is already the first wave, and we might see a correction down to 60 to $59,000. But we have only retraced towards $61,500. So, how the price action changed then? Why do I still believe that we have not yet created the first wave?

Because if you take a look at the price action, and now it comes down to being flexible, you can actually see that we have actually created an extended third wave. So then, the marking of these subwaves might look something like this. First, second, right?

Then we have got 1 2 3 4 5. So this is actually the third wave, which I put right here. This will be the fourth wave, and we are right now creating the fifth wave. With the highest probability, let me explain it to you.

So I'll put this as a intermediate wave marking, where this might have been the third wave. So 1 2 3, right? Which is motive wave structure, the third wave. What does it mean? It means simply that it subdivides itself into five smaller waves, right?

So on the lower time frame, you can see this being a structure of one and one and second, third, fourth, and then we have in the previous video also understood that this zone right here, this is actually on the 1 hour and 15 minutes time frame nicely visible five moves to the upside, hence forth the final fifth wave.

Then, as you can see right here, ABC structure, so corrective motive wave pattern. This might be a very nice fourth wave, and that is why I have created this line in this trend line. I have connected the bottom of the secondary wave with the bottom of the fourth wave.

But why have I done that? Because I want to have confluences on the upside, where might be the possible target of that final fifth wave. So, I have created the slope of the trend line like this. I have copied the slope, and I have placed it at the top of the third wave, right here.

And as you can see, it gives me a nice trend line upper boundary that will be acting as a resistance. And then, if I analyze the measurement between the bottom of the first wave up to that third wave, and I take my Fibonacci retracement tool, it can actually give me some nice confluences, right?

So, as you can see, at around 66,400 dollars, this is going to be playing as a very important resistance. The next important one is going to be around 69,000 dollars, right here. Since from the previous price action, we have already this marked 67,000 dollars and 65,000 dollars as a resistance zone, we can see that we are about to hit a pretty strong wall.

So, does it mean that from a swing trading perspective, you should be buying right now? Well, you might. But, is the risk-reward great? Not really, right? Not really. Because if you want to play it correctly, you would need to place your stop-loss below the fourth wave not to get wicked out during the noise and you know, during the summer especially, crypto market is very volatile and there is low liquidity.

So, like bigger orders can make chaos in the price action. That is why as a professional trader, you need to place your stop-loss thinking about that, right? So, for me, a long position is not very comfortable to do so. From a swing trading perspective, yeah?

Long position for me, from swing trading position trading perspective, it's not good. You know that we have been accumulating here at the bottom, right? Because it was our high probability on the daily and weekly time frame. But, from the 4-hour time frame, right now, even though we might be going higher because we have not yet finished that fifth wave, we have because the fifth wave is subdividing itself again into five small

waves and so far we have created just 1 2 3 4. We are about to have the fifth wave, right? So, we might push a little bit higher and then we might see the rejection. And the rejection might really take us back into the zone.

And if it does and we will see nice confluences on momentum indicators, etc. As you know, the other important stuff that we are watching together, we will definitely see this as a beautiful buying opportunity, yeah? If you take a look, potentially if the fifth wave will really finish but it really depends on how fast the price action is going to be.

So, we have the beautiful confluence with VPVR and the Fibonacci retracement level and the trend line around 66 to 67,000 there is however we can assume that there is going to be very strong resistance. So, then if I put my Fibonacci retracement tool potentially where the fifth wave is going to finish, which might be at that $67,000, we might then have a look where the sixth one in Fibonacci retracement level is,

and then we can see that there is multiple confluences at a level of $61,000, and the 786 around $59,000. There is still possibility that we will hit this zone that we have basically went through together in the previous videos that we showed in the zone.

So, it still might be a great buying opportunity if we get there, and if we get enough confirmations after we get there. It doesn't mean that if you will start crashing, I will just immediately buy once we get in the zone. No, that's not how professional trading works, as you know.

We need to wait for multiple confirmations, great confluences, see that the smart money are actually going into long positions as well. We need to take a look if the path of least resistance is really to the upside, if there is going to be enough squeeze fuel to go to the upside.

And if we have enough confirmations, then it depends what probability is going to be for the long position. Based on that, we will create the risk. We decide how much we will risk to that position, and then we need to take a look where we place stop loss, target, if the risk reward is great enough for us, and then we will get into position.

So, it's a multi-step process. It's like when you are trying to solve a mathematical problem, right? Big mathematical equation. You are not going to solve that mathematical problem just by looking at it and creating some number, all right? So, this is four. You need to slice it, right?

So, you need to take a look at the part of the mathematical problem, slice it into piece, solve this first, then solve this first, then solve this first, and then it will give you the final number, and you will solve the mathematical problem.

The same thing, if you want to solve the market, again, it's multi-step process, multi-time frame analysis, one indicator, second indicator, another indicator, confluence with the price action, what's going on on different time frame, what's going on with some inside data, right? Etc. And then, it will give you the probability, it will give you the solution to the problem, and then you decide what to do with your trading tactics.

So, that's that's it, ladies and gentlemen. So, right now, still weekly time frame bullish, daily time frame is still bullish for multiple reasons that we have went through in the previous videos, and today, the price action of Bitcoin has been going to the upside.

Bitcoin has been going to the upside, but the upside is very limited, in my opinion. That is why the likelihood of a bigger move in the next upcoming days is to the downside. We will analyze the market again together in the next video, that will be on Tuesday.

As you know, I'm recording for you videos every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. So, until Tuesday, make sure that you are trading safe to survive. Make sure that you are trading with a professional trading strategy and your trading tactics to make sure that the edge is always on your side, and I will see you again on Tuesday.

Cheers. [music] >> Calm breath, clear eyes, work done. Now, right. No rush, no dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap, clean setup, clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like a pro, that's it. Clean setup,