In short: In this session, Simon leans bullish on Bitcoin from the medium time frame and treats $79,000 as the magnet target because several confluences sit there. He reads the current dip below the ascending trend line as a deviation, not a real breakdown, given weak volume and the fresh long liquidations. His trigger is a daily close back above roughly $63,000; a fifth-wave push could then reach about $70,000. Invalidation is a daily close below the $60,800 to $61,000 support. He cites RSI, MACD, Stochastic RSI, the Fear and Greed Index, and rising short-squeeze probability on the funding page.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin bias in this video?
Simon leans bullish from the medium time frame at this zone. He says the probability of a bigger move up outweighs a move down, and the risk-reward favours longs. He is focused on bullish tactics with the ParadiseTeam and is not shorting the current structure.
Why does Simon call the dip a deviation, not a breakdown?
Price wicked below the ascending trend line while volume was thin, and a wave of long liquidations hit. Simon notes these deviations below important trend lines usually flush over-leveraged traders before price recovers, so he does not yet treat it as a genuine breakout to the downside.
The liquidation backdrop
Simon opens with the market context: over the prior 24 hours, about 142,000 traders were liquidated for roughly $681 million total. The largest single liquidation, near $14 million, happened on Hyperliquid. He frames this cascade as the kind of event that typically accompanies a trend-line deviation.
What level does Simon need to confirm the bullish case?
He wants a daily candle to close back above the ascending trend line, which he places around $62,000 to $63,000. Simon says he specifically wants to see a daily close above $63,000 to hold his bullish bias with strong probability points.
Where are Simon’s key Bitcoin levels?
Simon names several from the session. Below is his read on each, in his own framing of support, resistance, and targets.
- $60,800 to $61,000: the bottom of the secondary wave and the current support. A daily close below this would diminish the bullish structure.
- $62,000 to $63,000: the ascending trend line and reclaim zone; he wants a daily close above $63,000.
- $65,000: resistance in confluence with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where a shooting star reversal already printed.
- $66,000: a level he expects to work as resistance for the next corrective leg.
- $70,000: the target if the fifth wave completes and price breaks higher.
- $79,000: the higher-degree magnet target, driven by multiple confluences he has covered in prior videos.
What is the invalidation for the bullish structure?
Simon is clear: a weekly loss would already cut his probability points sharply, and a daily candle closing below the support near $60,800 to $61,000 would destroy the bullish structure. In that case he expects continuation lower, below the previous local low.
How does Simon read the momentum indicators?
On the daily, RSI is trying to reclaim its moving-average trend line, which he treats as an early tell for price. MACD shows a bullish cross but no bullish divergence. Stochastic RSI is attempting a bearish cross, which he flags as a caution against the bulls.
The 4-hour confirmation checklist
On the 4-hour chart, Simon sees a potential MACD bullish divergence forming: price made a lower low while the histogram made a higher low, signalling weak bears. He wants at least three histogram bars closing higher, plus a bullish cross, before confirming the shift.
How does Simon think about position sizing and probability?
Simon frames trading as scoring probability points from each tool, then sizing risk to the total. More confirmations mean a higher-probability setup, which justifies more risk. Fewer confirmations mean smaller size, or no trade at all. He cites Annie Duke’s “Thinking in Bets” for the poker-style logic.
Business mindset over gambling
He stresses systematic, risk-first trading over herd mentality and social-media noise. Simon references exchange data suggesting most retail accounts lose what they deposit over roughly three years, and argues the market rewards a business approach rather than treating it as a casino.
What do funding and sentiment say right now?
The Fear and Greed Index shows the 4-hour reading near extreme fear, close to 20. Simon points to the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page: funding is cooling and turning negative across major exchanges, with short-squeeze probability around 21% on Ethereum. Retail is fearful and now betting on it.
Simon builds this read partly from live funding data. You can watch the same short-squeeze and long-squeeze probability signals he references on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page, which tracks funding-rate pressure across all major exchanges.
Why does rising short-squeeze probability support the upside?
When retail is fearful and actively shorting, funding rates turn negative and short-squeeze probability rises. Simon reads that combination as fuel for an upside move: crowded shorts can be forced to cover. He repeats this is a probability edge, not a certainty.
What Simon is watching next
He wants to see the fourth wave finish as a triangle or double-three pattern, then a clean fifth-wave completion. That, he says, would set up a high-probability, tight-stop long on Bitcoin aiming near $70,000, with $79,000 as the larger magnet beyond it.
Bitcoin video breakdown: the takeaway
Simon’s message is disciplined patience. He leans bullish but refuses to buy blindly into a possible fakeout. The plan is simple: a daily close above $63,000 strengthens the case toward $70,000, while a daily close below $61,000 flips the read. Confirmations first, size to probability, and no forced trades.
Is Simon bullish or bearish on Bitcoin in this video?
He leans bullish from the medium time frame at this zone, arguing the upside probability and risk-reward favour longs. He is not shorting the current structure, though he says he would switch to bearish tactics if a daily close below the $60,800 to $61,000 support invalidated the setup.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin target in this session?
His nearer target is around $70,000 if the fifth wave completes and price breaks higher. Beyond that, $79,000 is the higher-degree magnet, which he attributes to multiple confluences discussed in prior videos. Both are framed as probabilities, not promises.
What level confirms or invalidates the bullish case?
Confirmation is a daily candle closing back above the ascending trend line, which Simon places around $63,000. Invalidation is a daily close below the secondary-wave support near $60,800 to $61,000, which he says would destroy the bullish structure and open continuation lower.
What does the funding data show in the video?
Simon points to funding rates cooling and turning negative across major exchanges, with short-squeeze probability near 21% on Ethereum. Combined with an extreme-fear reading close to 20 on the 4-hour Fear and Greed Index, he reads it as retail shorting into fear, which supports upside probability.
Which indicators does Simon rely on here?
He uses RSI reclaiming its moving-average trend line, MACD showing a bullish cross without divergence on the daily and a possible bullish divergence on the 4-hour, and Stochastic RSI attempting a bearish cross. He combines these with the Fear and Greed Index and the funding-rate page.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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