In short: In this session, Simon leans bullish on Bitcoin from the medium time frame and treats $79,000 as the magnet target because several confluences sit there. He reads the current dip below the ascending trend line as a deviation, not a real breakdown, given weak volume and the fresh long liquidations. His trigger is a daily close back above roughly $63,000; a fifth-wave push could then reach about $70,000. Invalidation is a daily close below the $60,800 to $61,000 support. He cites RSI, MACD, Stochastic RSI, the Fear and Greed Index, and rising short-squeeze probability on the funding page.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin bias in this video?
Simon leans bullish from the medium time frame at this zone. He says the probability of a bigger move up outweighs a move down, and the risk-reward favours longs. He is focused on bullish tactics with the ParadiseTeam and is not shorting the current structure.
Why does Simon call the dip a deviation, not a breakdown?
Price wicked below the ascending trend line while volume was thin, and a wave of long liquidations hit. Simon notes these deviations below important trend lines usually flush over-leveraged traders before price recovers, so he does not yet treat it as a genuine breakout to the downside.
The liquidation backdrop
Simon opens with the market context: over the prior 24 hours, about 142,000 traders were liquidated for roughly $681 million total. The largest single liquidation, near $14 million, happened on Hyperliquid. He frames this cascade as the kind of event that typically accompanies a trend-line deviation.
What level does Simon need to confirm the bullish case?
He wants a daily candle to close back above the ascending trend line, which he places around $62,000 to $63,000. Simon says he specifically wants to see a daily close above $63,000 to hold his bullish bias with strong probability points.
Where are Simon’s key Bitcoin levels?
Simon names several from the session. Below is his read on each, in his own framing of support, resistance, and targets.
- $60,800 to $61,000: the bottom of the secondary wave and the current support. A daily close below this would diminish the bullish structure.
- $62,000 to $63,000: the ascending trend line and reclaim zone; he wants a daily close above $63,000.
- $65,000: resistance in confluence with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where a shooting star reversal already printed.
- $66,000: a level he expects to work as resistance for the next corrective leg.
- $70,000: the target if the fifth wave completes and price breaks higher.
- $79,000: the higher-degree magnet target, driven by multiple confluences he has covered in prior videos.
What is the invalidation for the bullish structure?
Simon is clear: a weekly loss would already cut his probability points sharply, and a daily candle closing below the support near $60,800 to $61,000 would destroy the bullish structure. In that case he expects continuation lower, below the previous local low.
How does Simon read the momentum indicators?
On the daily, RSI is trying to reclaim its moving-average trend line, which he treats as an early tell for price. MACD shows a bullish cross but no bullish divergence. Stochastic RSI is attempting a bearish cross, which he flags as a caution against the bulls.
The 4-hour confirmation checklist
On the 4-hour chart, Simon sees a potential MACD bullish divergence forming: price made a lower low while the histogram made a higher low, signalling weak bears. He wants at least three histogram bars closing higher, plus a bullish cross, before confirming the shift.
How does Simon think about position sizing and probability?
Simon frames trading as scoring probability points from each tool, then sizing risk to the total. More confirmations mean a higher-probability setup, which justifies more risk. Fewer confirmations mean smaller size, or no trade at all. He cites Annie Duke’s “Thinking in Bets” for the poker-style logic.
Business mindset over gambling
He stresses systematic, risk-first trading over herd mentality and social-media noise. Simon references exchange data suggesting most retail accounts lose what they deposit over roughly three years, and argues the market rewards a business approach rather than treating it as a casino.
What do funding and sentiment say right now?
The Fear and Greed Index shows the 4-hour reading near extreme fear, close to 20. Simon points to the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page: funding is cooling and turning negative across major exchanges, with short-squeeze probability around 21% on Ethereum. Retail is fearful and now betting on it.
Simon builds this read partly from live funding data. You can watch the same short-squeeze and long-squeeze probability signals he references on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page, which tracks funding-rate pressure across all major exchanges.
Why does rising short-squeeze probability support the upside?
When retail is fearful and actively shorting, funding rates turn negative and short-squeeze probability rises. Simon reads that combination as fuel for an upside move: crowded shorts can be forced to cover. He repeats this is a probability edge, not a certainty.
What Simon is watching next
He wants to see the fourth wave finish as a triangle or double-three pattern, then a clean fifth-wave completion. That, he says, would set up a high-probability, tight-stop long on Bitcoin aiming near $70,000, with $79,000 as the larger magnet beyond it.
Bitcoin video breakdown: the takeaway
Simon’s message is disciplined patience. He leans bullish but refuses to buy blindly into a possible fakeout. The plan is simple: a daily close above $63,000 strengthens the case toward $70,000, while a daily close below $61,000 flips the read. Confirmations first, size to probability, and no forced trades.
Is Simon bullish or bearish on Bitcoin in this video?
He leans bullish from the medium time frame at this zone, arguing the upside probability and risk-reward favour longs. He is not shorting the current structure, though he says he would switch to bearish tactics if a daily close below the $60,800 to $61,000 support invalidated the setup.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin target in this session?
His nearer target is around $70,000 if the fifth wave completes and price breaks higher. Beyond that, $79,000 is the higher-degree magnet, which he attributes to multiple confluences discussed in prior videos. Both are framed as probabilities, not promises.
What level confirms or invalidates the bullish case?
Confirmation is a daily candle closing back above the ascending trend line, which Simon places around $63,000. Invalidation is a daily close below the secondary-wave support near $60,800 to $61,000, which he says would destroy the bullish structure and open continuation lower.
What does the funding data show in the video?
Simon points to funding rates cooling and turning negative across major exchanges, with short-squeeze probability near 21% on Ethereum. Combined with an extreme-fear reading close to 20 on the 4-hour Fear and Greed Index, he reads it as retail shorting into fear, which supports upside probability.
Which indicators does Simon rely on here?
He uses RSI reclaiming its moving-average trend line, MACD showing a bullish cross without divergence on the daily and a possible bullish divergence on the 4-hour, and Stochastic RSI attempting a bearish cross. He combines these with the Fear and Greed Index and the funding-rate page.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Just few minutes ago, a crypto whale that started to trade crypto 2 [music] weeks ago opened Bitcoin short position worth $46 million. He's [music] going to be liquidated if Bitcoin will hit $65,836. [music] Can Bitcoin pump towards this resistance? Let's analyze the probabilities.
>> [music] >> My Crypto [music and singing] Paradise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Amon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here today. It's Saturday and that means that you are watching the last video of this week. So, in this video we will try to answer a question if we can liquidate this whale.
This whale opened a Bitcoin short position with 40x leverage cross. So, he's risking his whole account and he'll going to be liquidated if Bitcoin will hit $65,836, which is nicely confluencing with our resistance. We'll be talking about that. And we will take a look in this video on 4-hour time frame and we will also take a look at Bitcoin on daily time frame.
The previous time frames we have been discussing in the previous video. So, we will not be discussing that in this in this one. So, as a professional traders, we always need to answer the important question, where the market makers are positioning themselves, right?
As they say, if you can't beat them, join them. And I don't believe that any of us right here is handling billions and billions of dollars so we can manipulate the price action that henceforth manipulate the decision-making of most of the traders and henceforth we need to understand what the market makers are doing and ride the waves with them, right?
So, we always need to ask the question, who is stronger right now in the market? Well, and if we take a look on the price action, we have created a lower low. So, clearly bears are stronger, right? We have just broke below the previous low.
Well, it's not that easy, right? There is always the question how the low was created. Was it by selling volume from spot exchanges? Was it just long squeeze, right? Etc. Is it driven by futures? That means derivative exchanges. Is it Is it driven henceforth by money that been borrowed to short the price action?
Etc. So, all of this will answer question. If we ask those kind of questions, it will give us the answer who is actually drawing the price lower, right? And you already know that we have been talking about the funding rates in the previous videos.
We have been also taking a look that there is a high probability of a long squeeze, right? Henceforth, I don't need to show you right here the other data like the funding rates, etc. To understand that this low wasn't actually created by by cumulative volume delta spot exchange selling, right?
And we can confirm that very easily by looking at the volume as well. Definitely, you want to be looking at volume on spot exchanges, all right? And as you can see, on this low, the volume been much higher than on this one, right?
So, what do we have here right here? We have divergence between the price action and the volume, right? And as a professional traders, we are not just like interested in watching where the extremes are, imbalances are, you'll be talking about few of these cases, extremes, we'll be talking about that as well, but also divergences among other things, right?
So, we can see a clear divergence between price action and the volume, all right? So, as you can see here, bears been very strong pushing to the downside, volume been very high above the moving average volume trend line. On this next low, we have created lower low, but we have created lower high, which is divergence, right?
What would be healthy and what would what would increase the probability that after push back we can continue in the price action would be if we would create a higher high on the volume as well. But as you can see, a lot of bears, like this is big volume, right?
Most of the bears already got exhausted themselves right here. And given that that on this huge volume selling, they have not been able they have not been able to push price much lower, right? There was not much bears left to help them to push the price much lower afterwards.
And much lower I'm talking about towards at least the next important support zone, which is sitting at around $54,000, ladies and gentlemen. So, what does it tell us that we have created this kind of divergence? Well, we can clearly see on the momentum indicator that this is nothing extremely bearish, right?
Given that we have also created on the momentum indicator RSI higher low, right? So, we have lower low and higher low on the RSI indicator. So, it's another divergence, right? And how do we call this one? It's a bullish divergence. And what it what it tells us is the same thing.
It's just a confirmation of the volume, right? And as a professional traders, you're just waiting for more confirmations and so forth more confluences, which increases your probability of your bias, right? So, look at this. Momentum created higher low, price action lower low. This is bullish divergence, right?
Then you can also wait for more confirmations for the bullish divergence like cross cross above this moving average RSI and trend line breakout, reclaim, etc. But that will just give you more points. But basically so far, we can already see that the momentum of the bears on this next low been much weaker than on this one, which is confirming everything, the volume, who created the selling pressure, etc., right?
So, the bull the bears are losing power, all right? And usually, this is great moment for bulls to start taking over. You usually see this kind of signals at reversal points, all right? Where after bear trend, we can start some kind of lower time frame, higher time frame, medium time frame bull trend, all right?
So, if we also take a look at the candlestick formation, we can see that another bullish signal appeared, something similar what we have got right here back in 6th of June, all right? So, how do we call this candlestick pattern? This is a bullish hammer candlestick pattern, all right?
Hammer candlestick pattern is the opposite of shooting star, and the bullish hammer candlestick pattern is so much more powerful if we get also bullish engulfing afterwards. But, let's talk first about this bullish hammer candlestick pattern. We can see that on the price section, then it's going to be much better visible on the lower time frame, which we'll be talking about that as well.
But, very just easily try to understand let's try to understand together the price section. So, the bears been pushing lower, right? But, bulls have stepped in very quickly, and that's what created this week, and this is considered very bullish, all right? Because the bulls are active in the market, and they are defending this bottom right here at around that $58,000.
And we can see a very small body on that candle, very small wick above, much bigger below the body of the candle. This is very healthy bullish hammer candlestick pattern, which is usually visible at bottom of the trends, all right? Of bear trends.
So, we have seen this we have seen it right here. Afterwards, we have got another beautiful confirmation, which is the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, which we might be forming right now. So, what make it successful bullish engulfing candlestick pattern is if we can close this next daily candle green and above the body of the previous candle.
That means above $60,000. If that's going to happen and also I want to see that the price will close above this Fibonacci retracement level, right? 1.272, which is sitting at 60 thousand $300, all right? It will be very bullish and it will increase for me at least the probabilities of this bullish divergence and the and the situation where bulls can continue to push the price higher, all right?
So, I'm watching for these signals on the daily timeframe, ladies and gentlemen, all right? Together with that, I want to see some nice volume on this daily candle. We are closing the daily in 9 hours, so I want to see it at least going above the moving average volume trendline right here and I will be kind of satisfied.
It will It will really confirm that from the lower timeframe also we will be talking about the price action, but the probabilities will be that we will complete the first wave, then we will have the secondary wave, same like we have got right here, secondary.
And this was previously our entry zone in Paradise Family VIP. We have then started to push some signals and we've been pushing long trade setups, right? Because this was extremely bullish signal with other confluences that I will not be talking about because we would spend again like hours here together.
So, basically, you need to understand how we're just very basically what I'm looking at here on the daily timeframe. Then from the price action, the probabilities will very much increase that we have completed a secondary the first inhale of the market and then we will just be waiting for the exhale.
If that's going to close above this support again and we will have the the confluences, it will be again a beautiful opportunity to create nice bullish trade setups, right? So, if you are in Paradise and VIP, you will definitely be seeing that from us, from the Paradise team, what we are doing in the market as you always do.
So, ladies and gentlemen, this is from the daily timeframe. We have been discussing also in the previous video of the MACD histogram. We are having the bullish cross already right here with this next low. You can see that we have not went below the previous low on these two MACD lines.
And we can see that basically we are having just possible reclaim. And this is exactly what I'm talking about, what I'm trying to tell you what a successful reclaim looks like. So, we have been in a downtrend, right? And then to get the reversal bullish cross after a bearish cross, I want to see these kind of breakouts and then reclaims, basically retests of the previous line from working as a resistance into
a support. The same way it happened right here. Break that it outside, retest, and continuation. So, then I'm interested in seeing those two lines again like like going from each other and looking in the in the downside direction. That was bearish signal. For for for the bullish signal, I want to see them basically reclaim and then looking to the upside, right?
So, that will be very nice signal like from the MACD indicator right here. Already this bullish cross is is very nice. If you take a look on the Stochastic RSI, we might have a bullish cross as well very soon. You know exactly what I'm interested in Stochastic RSI again.
We are just talking about increasement of probabilities. If we will start looking with these two lines in this zone to the direction we want to trade in, right? So, that's on daily timeframe, ladies and gentlemen. From the price action perspective, you know that we are creating with the highest probability the ending diagonal, which will look like which might look like this, right?
And then we will be hitting the $44,000, but that's the macro high time frame to ultra high time frame that we have been discussing in the previous video. So, right now, yes, we are still focusing on the C wave. So, from the price action development perspective, we might be creating the the expanded flat pattern, right?
A B that that are the exhales, and the C wave should be the motive motive wave. That means five smaller breaths in the market, and we might start getting the first inhale uh very soon. Not confirmed just yet, but if we will get that from the daily time frame, then this will be a very nice probability to start pushing into long trade setups in expectation to start catching the next inhale, right?
So, it will not be only high probability, but also great risk reward, right? So, as you know, professional traders like you and me, we are focused on long-term profitability and on the process only, right? The outcome, the money, they just come as a side product of a very professional process of taking trades, right?
So, my process is high probability, high risk reward trade setups, and waiting with patience in the meantime, sitting on my hands, right? So, like that, I will make sure that every risk I take in the market comes with a higher probability of me winning rather than losing.
That means every action I take on the market, I take with an edge, right? And thanks to that, I'm basically becoming an owner of casino, right? Because what the owners of casino are doing? They play the games against the gambler, right? And the gambler can win a lot of money in the market, but it's usually because of luck.
Well, it's always because of luck unlike unless you are playing poker or or blackjack, right? But that's for another discussion. But when you win in a casino on roulette, slot machines, etc., the luck is always on your side if you win, right? And the probabilities are against you.
So, the longer you play like this, the higher probability that you will start losing as a gambler. The opposite is for the owner of casino. Every game he plays against you, he plays it with an edge. He always has a higher probability of winning rather than losing.
Of course, sometimes the gambler gets lucky, the owner of casino gets unlucky, the owner of casino can also lose against the gambler, right? But it's about a process. And the process of the casino owner is the one that's going to make him money in the long run.
And that's exactly what we are focusing on as professional traders, right? So, thanks to that that I'm being patient and waiting for my trading setups that are only like great risk reward and high probability, I'm putting myself in a position of a casino owner, right?
And together with the risk reward, given that I know that I will be hitting losing streaks, that means many like few losses in a in a in a row, thanks to a great risk reward, basically I know that I will be able to survive those losing streaks.
And then when I when I'm start hitting winning streaks, given that I have a great risk reward, that means for example, like 5% loss, I'm going to take a trade only when I have at least like three more profit, right? For that position.
So, I know that if I will be like hitting the stop losses, I just need like I will take three stop losses, I don't I then just need one successful trade, right? To cover all of that losing streak, right? And then when I start hitting winning streak, well, if I have more like these like after they are pretty much secured and I'm comfortable to play with my process and I will be
safe from the losing streak. So, that's why that's why as professional traders we are focused on the probabilities versus risk reward trade-off. Sometimes it's a trade-off, right? Sometimes you have much more probabilities, not that good risk reward, but you go for it. Sometimes the probabilities are not that high, but the market allows you to place your stop loss very tightly to the entry.
So, it's a clear it's a clear take in the trade, right? It's a clear it's a clear go for me. So, but it requires patience. And you also need to know when to go aggressive and to go defensive, but that's again for another video.
Let's right now have a look on the 4-hour time frame very quickly we will summarize this video very quickly. What we can see on the 4-hour time frame is lower low, but on the MACD we are having higher low with bullish cross already.
So, this is pretty much very nice bullish signal for me. It's confirmed from RSI on the price section lower low, higher low on the price section on the RSI very bullish signal for me as well. I want to see pick up on volume right now on the first wave.
So, we are right now structuring the first impulse aka the first inhale of the market that we have been talking about, right? That I'm I'm trying to see the first and then the second. So, the first basically subdivide itself into five small waves.
The third wave is usually the most impulsive one. So, with the third wave I want to see this moving average trend line that is working right now as a resistance at $60,700 confluence with this Fibonacci retracement level at $60,900. I want basically during this third wave to push above it.
I want to see that price action to push above it. Then I want to see the fourth wave and the fifth wave would be very nice if would end at around $63,300 where we are having another resistance and then I will be waiting for the exhale.
If I will get confirmed the XL from the medium time frame perspective, this will be very beautiful for me, all right, to start looking for long trading setups and start playing with bullish trading tactics again aggressively. Ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated and probably some of you happy if I'm going to take the trades.
Right now, to answer the question from the beginning of the video, yes, it's much higher probability that we will start pushing to the upside and we might liquidate the whale, all right? As you can see, the whale placed the stop loss at exactly $65,800.
So, it's above the confluences of these resistances we are having at $65,300 confluence of two Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous price action of this whole wave, yeah, which was the ABC zigzag, and also from the first wave first wave of the A wave of this ABC zigzag, ladies and gentlemen, confluence at $65,300.
Very strong resistance, the whale placed it above, all right? So, I mean, if he's going to start getting scared off and he's going to close his position right here, basically, the short contracts will need to be bought back and that will put pressure on the market.
So, it's going to just help to push through this resistance, all right? So, we're going to be watching the whale as well. Watch it with me. I will keep you updated on Tuesday, but also another just confluence is very quickly, the imbalance, right?
So, if you will start pushing to the upside, you know that the hard degree level we are watching is $79,000 maximum for this expanded flat before we start pushing lower. It's still there is a huge imbalance. If you will start pushing towards that, we will liquidate almost $12 billion worth of short positions.
If you will start pushing the same direction to the downside, only $1.4 billion, yeah? So, the domino effect is nicely is nicely supporting a squeeze to the upside from the hard degree perspective. And if we take a look on the fear and greed index, we are touching on the daily time frame the extreme, which is our number 20.
So basically retail is a scared right now. That means basically whales have opportunity as they are doing. We have been watching the divergences on the momentum, basically support the price action, accumulate right? And without basically the retail, the retail actually provides them the selling liquidity, so whales can accumulate, right?
So the retail is selling shorting as we have been discussing. The whales are absorbing the selling pressure. That's what creates the divergence on the momentum indicators we have been watching. And hence forth is basically increasing the probabilities thanks to understanding this fear and greed index that you can also monitor on our website mycryptoparadise.com that the next big move is going to be to the upside.
All right, so that's just a summary for this. Ladies and gentlemen, you know exactly what I'm watching for. Watch it with me and I will keep you updated. On Tuesday, we will see each other again on Tuesday. Amazing. Until then, take care, play with a professional trading strategy, and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Cheers. [music] >> I'm burning. Clear eyes. Work done. Now right, I know rush. No dread. [music] Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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