Bitcoin After 142,000 Liquidations: Why Simon Watches the $63,000 Reclaim and $79,000 Target

Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.

If you're trading crypto, you'll probably know that in the past 24 [music] hours, 142,000 traders were completely liquidated. The total liquidations [music] comes in at $681 million, and the largest single liquidation happened on HyperLiquid, and the [music] trader got liquidated for $14 million.

Another big movement is incoming. >> [music] >> What will be the direction, up or down? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto [music and singing] Paradise. >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Brothers, good. This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back.

It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday, and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, previously we have been talking about that we are finishing our fifth wave that will, with the highest probability, take a shape of an ending diagonal, and we have finished the first exhale with the highest probability, and right now we are about to start the secondary exhale that might take us up to

$79,000. We know from the previous videos that there is a lot of confluences at that $79,000 mark, and that's why it's working as a magnet, right? So, we will be talking about that. Afterwards, we should be forming the third exhale, then the fourth, and the fifth wave should take us towards this zone, which is the reaccumulation zone, and the kind of zone where the institutions and the traders that not been able

to manage their risk well will start to capitulate, right? So, let's right now take a look and zoom in inside of this possible sequence that might take us towards the $79,000. We, as a professional traders, work with probabilities, right? So, in order for us to be able to say with much higher probability that indeed we are right now forming the secondary wave that might take us towards the $79,000, we need to

understand that we are at least forming the first motive wave structure out of that three-wave sequence, right? The three smaller breaths. So, we know about the motive wave structure that it subdivided itself into five smaller waves. So far, we have created first, secondary, third, and right now with the highest probability, we are creating the fourth one, which is the alternation of the secondary one.

So, if you take a look at the secondary wave, it was very sharp and very short. And if you take a look at the fourth wave and trough, it should be it should be longer and it should be kind of sideways, which currently is.

And because it already went into price territory of the first and secondary wave, we know that this is going to be a leading diagonal. And what we know about leading diagonals is that it always needs to go beyond the final fifth wave, need to go beyond the end of the third wave, right?

So, right now what we are looking at is kind of deviation below this ascending trend line. It's usually basically comprehended with these kind of liquidations events. And if you have been watching the intro of the video, you know that a lot of people got liquidated, which is usual for deviations of below or above these important trend lines, right?

So, it nicely suggests that this should not be a real breakout, ladies and gentlemen, given that also the volume so far isn't there and we should continue to form the fourth wave that should create a shape of a triangle. The triangle should be contracting, maybe expanding, but that's lower probability.

And once, however, we start seeing that we are finishing five waves, all right? So, so far we have created first, secondary, third, fourth, and the fifth one. If that's going to happen back above this ascending trend line, the probability will be very high that we will start seeing a breakout and the final fifth wave might take us towards $70,000.

And we might complete the first motive wave structure, A wave, and then we will have the B wave. Well, and the final C wave might take us towards that magical number 79,000 there's that we have been talking about in-depth in the previous videos.

So, right now, ladies and gentlemen, from the momentum perspective, we can see the RSI is really doing its best it can to reclaim this moving average trend line that been holding Bitcoin in this downtrend, right? And what we know is like about these early reclaims, we call it a reclaim if we have a breakout and then retest of the trend line and try to change it from a resistance into a support

that it usually predicts us what's going to happen on the moving average trend line on the price action, yeah? This is the price action basically, and this is the RSI indicator. So, if we can see that the reclaim is already happening on the RSI, we might predict that it's going to be successful for the price action as well, but we want to have more confirmations.

So, so far, so far, we can see that it's holding quite nicely as a support, right? But, I want to see really the next uh important daily candle to close above this ascendant trend line on the price action, and on the RSI trend line, I want to see us looking upwards, all right?

And in the best case scenario, break above these two previous highs. That will be a successful reclaim for me. What I like about the MACD indicator is that on the histogram, we do not have a bullish divergence, that's something to really pay attention to, but we have a bullish cross, all right?

So, it gives us some probability points for the bullish scenario. What is not really beneficial for bulls is right now that the stochastic RSI is trying to have a bearish cross, and if we will start looking with both legs to the outside in this zone, the bears might actually start gaining power again and what would invalidate this bullish structure that we are forming right now on the price action would be, as

we have already said in the previous video, a week would really already decrease for me at least the probability points by around 80% all right and then if we would also close a daily candle that I mean one daily bar on this time frame would basically close below this support that would completely destroy this bullish structure and with the highest probability we would have a continuation to the downside and below the

previous local low ladies and gentlemen. In that case, because I'm not looking for bearish trading tactics right now, you know that I'm focusing on bullish trading tactics from the medium time frame perspective at this zone. That is also why we have been reaccumulating right here with the Paradise and VIPs and as you know from the previous videos we have been also creating some long trading signals on altcoins etc.

So you know that we are consistently in this structure with the Paradise team we are looking for bullish trading tactics because not only the probability is higher that we will see a bigger move to the upside than to the downside at this moment, but also the risk reward is much more favorable for focusing on long positions at this moment, all right?

So I will not be in a short position if you will do the move to the downside, I can tell you that. What I'm going to do however is that I will be looking for more confirmations and then I will be turning myself from bullish trading perspective into bearish trading perspective and I will be actively looking to trade the price action of with our bearish trading tactics, all right?

So I will be focusing on shorting the highs and then buying back at the lows again, all right? So ladies and gentlemen, right now where this structure is still bullish, we have not went below the previous low, below the low of the secondary wave, which is right now sitting at $60,800.

So, so far this seems to be as a deviation. However, if you will start closing the daily candle also below this ascending trend line, that will increase the bearish probabilities. So, right now important stuff, ladies and gentlemen, is that we will reclaim on this daily time frame, which is closing the candle in 9 hours back above this ascending trend line, which the level is around $62,63,000.

So, definitely I want to see the daily candle to close above $63,000, all right? For me to be having this kind of bullish bias with a great probability points. If we will start closing above this ascending trend line, there is going to be the higher probability that we will start pushing to the upside and start creating the final fifth wave after we finish the fourth wave, yeah?

So, it's basically step-by-step. As a professional traders, we are really focusing on probabilities. The more probabilities we have for our bias, the more likely we are to trade in that direction. That's first thing, so we are either start taking trades and second thing, the more probabilities increases, the higher position size we put into our trades.

That means because we are focusing on risk first, profit second, we are willing to risk more on our trades if we have more probability on the direction that we think the market is going to go with, all right? Upside or downside. So, at this moment the higher probability at this time is still to the upside on the daily time frame.

Let's have a look what we are actually doing on the 4-hour time frame, which is medium time frame for me. So, here, unlike on the daily time frame, if we have a look on the momentum indicator, we can actually see on the MACD that we are trying to form a bullish divergence.

So, so far, we have seen lower low on the price action, but so far, you can see that the bears are very weak, right? And on the histogram, they are creating higher low, actually. You know that from a professional trading perspective, we are waiting for confirmations.

So, the same way, we have not been blindly buying, basically, on this breakout on the weekly time frame above this moving average trend line, because we have been watching over We have been watching over the price action, and we understood this is actually a fakeout.

The same way, on the lower time frames, we are waiting for confirmations in order for us to really decrease the potential trap, I would say, that a lot of traders, and even great traders, professional traders, are a lot of times getting caught in fakeout breakouts.

Fake breakouts are a very common thing, especially in crypto, because you know that crypto is very volatile, because the liquidity is not that good in the market. So, you need to really make sure that you are risking a big amount of money only when you have as much confirmations as possible, right?

Of course, sometimes you need to do these kind of tradeoffs between understanding like this is very great risk reward, the probabilities are not that good, so I should go into the position, or the probability is very good, but the risk reward is not that good, but again, I should go into the position.

So, you will really it's about understanding when to go when to be defensive, when to go aggressive. Position sizing into your trading is so important. It's really not about understanding if the market goes up or down, but it's about understanding the probability, exactly the probability of how much probability the market has for going up and going down, right?

And when the probabilities are huge for going up, go aggressive, right? Bet a lot of money. I would really recommend the book by Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets. It's this kind of professional poker player, and she talks exactly about this, yeah? So, when you have a good hand, very good hand, you need to bet a lot.

When you have a bad hand, you should fold. As a traders, we have also the kind of chance to fold like not trade, right? Which is actually the third position. We either buy or sell, or we don't do anything, and that's also a decision making in the market, right?

That's the third position, not doing anything, sitting on your hands, waiting patiently for the great trade opportunity. And when you have like semi-good hand, you should go for it, but you should size yourself defensively, not to risk that much of money. So, thinking in bets, really thinking in probabilities, yeah?

Very important. So, on the MACD histogram, we are waiting for confirmations. You know that I want to see at least three bars basically starting to close higher, yeah? That means we will start creating higher lows, ladies and gentlemen. That will be my confirmation that the bears are really losing power, and the bulls can step in again, and it will confirm this bullish divergence for me.

Together, if you will get something like this, a bullish cross, which is right now non-existent, it will again increase the probabilities, yeah? So, then it's just about adding points, like so far like this, we can see no power of bears on this lower low, that's for example 10 points, yeah?

Then cross, another 10 points. Then the three bars closing higher, another 10 points. And then you summarize it, and you understand, all right, so this signal that I'm reading from understanding the MACD histogram is giving me 30. And then you take a look at your trading tactic.

What does it mean when I have 30 from MACD histogram? What does it mean when I have 30 from RSI, 20 from price action, 20 from this, 20 from this, etc., etc. Then you count together your points and then you take a look at your risk metrics and you understand, all right, so this is a setup, for example, or a plus setup.

And when I see a setups, how much do I risk? This and this, bang, you go into the position, okay? So, it should be like this, systematic methodology trading. Don't care about what's happening on the social media, what the people are doing or calling for, because you will end up in this kind of herd mentality, all right?

And you know, 96% of traders, they lose money, all right, in the market. It's bad, but we are having the data from exchanges. Within 3 years, basically, most people, 96% of people, lose everything. We see the basically deposits and withdrawals from the exchanges on each account, all right?

So, 96% of people, what they deposit in their exchange, all right, within 3 years, they basically withdraw nothing, all right? It's this kind of hard truth of trading that most of the people are not talking about, yeah? So, it's exactly because it's not actually fun to do these kind of methodologies, right?

Most people like to treat trading as casino. That's fun. Nobody likes to treat it as business. But the interesting thing about market is it always gives you how you treat it, basically. If you treat the market as a gambler, it will give you gambling results, right?

And it also will give you this kind of emotions of what you experience in a casino, right? So, big highs and also big lows, but it will be very exciting, right? And building businesses, if you're a building business, you know, it's usually slow.

It's not that fast, but sometimes you get you get lucky, right? And if you have your strategy positions right, you can and a lot of money. And then you just focus on the risk, again, right? You Sometimes you might get unlucky as well.

You hit some losing streaks, but if your strategy is correct, you never lose what you have won. All right? And then you you continue, yeah? Bang, you continue. Bang. And the curve is upwards, all right? So, that's that's business versus gambling mindset, ladies and gentlemen, okay?

So, right now, from the price action perspective, let's have a look at it, yeah? Previously, we have been talking about this this channel, and we have been talking about this resistance that we are in confluence with 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. We have understood hence forth because we have been analyzing the completion of this wave structure, ABC, that the market will have this as a resistance because there is the confluence of the

ascending trend line together with this. So, we have been talking about the $65,000, right? As a resistance. As you can see, market went exactly to that point and then created a shooting star candlestick pattern. And hence forth, this was a reversal candlestick pattern, as you know, and market went back to the downside, right?

So, what we are right now doing, I do believe, if you take a look at the structure of the waves, aka how the market is breathing, the market we are trying to finish that five waves in order for us to increase the probabilities that we might continue towards that $79,000 in the higher degree exhale movement, right?

A B C, right? That C might take us towards the $79,000, which is right now high probability because all of the conferences that are sitting at $79,000 that we have been talking about in the previous videos. So, right now, I do believe we have created the first inhale, exhale, inhale that finished right there at our resistance.

And right now we are doing the exhale, the fourth wave, which is the alternation of the secondary wave, this one. And it should be some kind of formation of a triangle or maybe double three pattern. We don't know just yet. We just know that we have created ABC.

This is exhale. So, it's increasing the probabilities because it wasn't an impulse that this is really just a correction before the next push to the upside. So, again, more probabilities of basically that the bigger move is going to be to the upside than to the downside, right?

So, right now, we have created the first wave, in my opinion. Right now, we are we have either finished or finishing the secondary wave, which might be A, B, and final C. All right. I do believe that the $66,000 would be working as a great resistance for that.

Then, we will create the 1 2 3 third wave, then fourth wave, then fifth wave. If If this is going to be some kind of structure of a triangle, we'll be watching how the fifth wave is finishing, and then there will be a great opportunity to create a nice high probability great risk reward on a Bitcoin bullish trade, all right, where we will be able to place our stop loss as tight

as possible, and our exit target, you know, is going to be at around that $70,000 with highest probability. So, yeah, I'm watching for that, ladies and gentlemen. Right now, $61,000 is basically the bottom of the secondary wave to get a confluence with other important levels like VPVR, Fibonacci retracement confluences from multiple time frames, etc.

So, I don't want to see the price like wicking below. That would be already very bad for bulls. Closing for our candle would diminish this bullish structure. So, we are watching over for that, ladies and gentlemen. If we, however, take a look at the Fear and Greed Index, we can take a look what the retail versus smart money are doing.

So, we can see that right now on the 4-hour time frame, people are fearful. We are getting close to the extreme fear. We are going close to that number 20, which is extreme, right? And then, if we take a look at our new page, which is this crypto funding rate that you can find by going to mycryptoparadise.com, then insights, and then crypto funding rates.

It's a new page, it's beautiful. We are counting probabilities of a squeeze to the upside or to the downside. And you know that in the previous video, I've been already teasing you a little bit about this squeeze probability score of short squeeze or long squeeze.

We had around 20% long squeeze. Right? So, long squeeze already happened. We saw in the intro of the video that a lot of people got liquidated. Right now, you can see that on the Ethereum especially, since that's much more volatile than Bitcoin, we are already seeing 21% short squeeze probability.

If you take a look on the funding rate, we can see previously it was kind of going hot, right? To this direction. It was going the numbers were kind of yellow to orange-ish. And right now, it's getting a little bit colder, right? On major exchanges.

So, we can see retail is not only fearful, but they are actually shorting as well. So, they are betting on their fear. We know from the previous videos that it's big difference if people are fearful, but they are not acting on it. And if people are fearful and they actually bet on the market going lower.

And right now, they are beginning to bet on it. That's why the funding rates are getting negative. Henceforth, that's why the short squeeze probability is increasing. Ladies and gentlemen, all of this is increasing our probabilities that the next move is going to be to the upside, but again, it's just a probability, not a certainty.

As a professional traders, we are focusing on on professional trading strategies and tactics that, because we are playing with a great edge, will make us profitable in the long run, because we just monitor the market and we just execute the highest probability trades.

We however know that luck is involved. So sometimes we might get lucky, right? And hit more wins in a row. Sometimes you might get unlucky also. There might be 95% probability signal, right? And we still can lose it. There's also There's always that 5%, right?

So sometimes you might get unlucky, but in the bigger sample, if you will be just taking the highest probability trades with great risk reward, you will be profitable. And that's exactly what the professional poker players are focusing on. As you know from the book by Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets.

And that's also what the professional traders are focusing on. So thank you so much for watching. I will see you again on Thursday. Take care, trade safe, and I will see you on Thursday. Cheers. >> [music] >> Clear eyes, work done. No rush, all right.

No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like a pro. That's it. Clean setup.