In short: In this Tuesday session, Simon from MyCryptoParadise reads Bitcoin as still bullish on the medium time frame after $681 million in liquidations wiped out roughly 142,000 traders in 24 hours. He treats the drop below the ascending trend line as a deviation, not a real breakdown. His bias holds only if the daily candle reclaims above about $63,000. The secondary-wave low near $60,800 is the line in the sand: a daily close below it destroys the bullish structure. Upside targets are $70,000, then the $79,000 magnet where multiple confluences sit.
What happened in the liquidation event Simon opens with?
Simon opens with the numbers: 142,000 traders liquidated in 24 hours for $681 million total, the largest single liquidation at $14 million on HyperLiquid. He frames this as the kind of flush that typically accompanies a deviation below an important trend line, not a genuine trend change.
Is Simon leaning bullish or bearish on Bitcoin right now?
Bullish, on the medium time frame. Simon states plainly he is focusing on bullish trading tactics and would not take a short here. He argues the higher probability favors a bigger move up than down, and the risk-reward is more favorable for longs at this zone, which is why the Paradise team has been reaccumulating.
The Elliott wave structure he is tracking
Simon describes Bitcoin finishing a fifth wave that he expects to take the shape of an ending diagonal. He believes the market is forming a corrective fourth wave, likely a triangle or double-three, before a final push. That correction, he says, raises the probability the next larger move is up rather than down.
What price levels does Simon actually name?
He is specific. The key levels from the session are the trend-line reclaim and target zones he wants to see confirmed step by step. Nothing here is a promise; each level is a probability marker he watches before sizing a trade.
- $79,000 – the higher-degree target, a “magnet” where many confluences sit.
- $70,000 – where the final fifth wave might carry price after the reclaim.
- $66,000 – a level he expects to act as resistance for the next sub-wave.
- $65,000 – prior resistance at a 0.618 Fibonacci confluence, where a shooting star reversed price.
- $63,000 – the daily close he needs above the ascending trend line to keep a strong bullish bias.
- $61,000 / $60,800 – the secondary-wave bottom; wicks below are bad, a daily close below diminishes the structure.
What has to happen for the bullish structure to stay valid?
Simon wants the daily candle, closing in nine hours from the session, to reclaim above the ascending trend line near $62,000 to $63,000. A confirmed daily close above $63,000 keeps his bullish bias with strong probability points. Without that reclaim, the setup weakens.
What would invalidate the bullish read?
Two things. A weekly candle back into the range would cut his probability points sharply, by his estimate around 80 percent. And a daily close below the secondary-wave support near $60,800 would, with high probability, open continuation to the downside below the previous local low.
Which indicators is Simon reading, and what do they say?
On the daily, the RSI is attempting to reclaim the moving-average trend line that held Bitcoin in its downtrend, which he treats as an early tell for price. The MACD shows a bullish cross on the histogram, adding probability points, though no bullish divergence yet.
The warning signal he flags
The stochastic RSI is trying to print a bearish cross. If both legs turn out from the current zone, Simon says the bears could regain power. On the 4-hour time frame the MACD is trying to form a bullish divergence, with weak bears making a higher low on the histogram, but he waits for at least three bars closing higher as confirmation.
How does Simon use funding rates and the Fear and Greed read?
Simon checks retail positioning against smart money. The Fear and Greed Index on the 4-hour sits near extreme fear, close to 20. He notes retail is not only fearful but actively shorting, which pushes funding rates negative and raises the short-squeeze probability that can fuel an upside move.
Simon reads squeeze probability directly from the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page. In the session he flags the earlier long-squeeze read near 20 percent that has now played out, and about a 21 percent short-squeeze probability on Ethereum with funding cooling on all major exchanges. You can watch the same funding and squeeze signals he uses.
What is the trading-mindset takeaway from this video?
Simon frames trading as probabilities, not certainties. He references Annie Duke’s “Thinking in Bets”: bet big on a strong hand, fold on a weak one, and sit on your hands when nothing lines up. He stresses risk first, profit second, and sizing up only when confirmations stack.
Why he waits for confirmations
Fake breakouts are common in crypto because liquidity is thin and volatility is high. Simon says he did not blindly buy the weekly moving-average break because he read it as a fakeout. He waits for the daily reclaim and stacked signals before committing real size to a trade.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin target in this video?
Simon names $70,000 as where a final fifth wave could carry price, and $79,000 as the higher-degree target he calls a magnet because of multiple confluences discussed in prior sessions. Both are probability-based scenarios that depend on Bitcoin first reclaiming the ascending trend line, not guaranteed outcomes.
What price invalidates the bullish setup?
A daily candle closing below the secondary-wave support near $60,800 would, with high probability, break the bullish structure and open continuation lower below the previous local low. A weekly candle back into the range would also cut Simon’s probability points by roughly 80 percent, weakening the long bias significantly.
Why did 142,000 traders get liquidated?
Bitcoin deviated below an important ascending trend line, and Simon notes these deviations usually come with heavy liquidations. The 24-hour flush totaled $681 million, with the largest single liquidation at $14 million on HyperLiquid. He reads it as a deviation and shakeout rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
What does the funding-rate short squeeze signal mean here?
Retail is fearful and actively shorting, which turns funding rates negative and raises short-squeeze probability, near 21 percent on Ethereum in the session. When crowded shorts get forced to cover, that buying can accelerate an upside move. Simon treats it as one probability input among several, not a standalone signal.
Does Simon recommend shorting at this level?
No. Simon states he is focused on bullish trading tactics on the medium time frame and would not take a short here, because both the probability and the risk-reward favor longs at this zone. He says he would flip to bearish tactics only after price and momentum give him clear confirmations to do so.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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