Accumulation vs distribution, live: is this range being accumulated or distributed, and which way has it resolved?
Wyckoff talks about accumulation and distribution, the phases where a bigger player quietly builds or unloads a position while price goes sideways. The trouble is those labels are usually drawn after the fact, so they always fit. We do it the other way around: we detect a trading range mechanically first, with no opinion, and only then read whether the flow inside it looks like accumulation or distribution, and grade how the range actually resolved. No range, no claim. And instead of a made-up probability, we publish the honest base rate: how often detected ranges have resolved up first, down first, or neither.
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Range Resolution base rate
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share of past detected ranges that resolved up first (broke one ATR above the range before one ATR below), excluding the ranges that resolved neither way
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Resolved neither way
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share of detected ranges that touched neither the up nor the down barrier inside the window, so they resolved neither way
Deeper record since 2017
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up-first rate over the deeper Bitcoin-only price history, a larger sample as a cross-check
Reading the current range Bitcoin
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The absorption read is the net taker buying or selling absorbed inside the range. The spring or upthrust net counts failed breakdowns below the range low minus failed breakouts above the high. These are context, not a signal.
Range map Bitcoin
The range history is still building.
Each shaded box is a mechanically detected trading range: a stretch where the twenty-day price span stayed compressed after a real directional move. The box is colored by how the range resolved, up first, down first, or neither, once price broke one ATR beyond the range. Triangles mark springs (failed breakdowns below the range low) and upthrusts (failed breakouts above the high). Price from Binance and OKX daily candles. Values are estimates.
Range log up / down / neither
Every range the detector has confirmed, with how it resolved, how long it lasted, and the flow read at confirmation. Reconstructed ranges are marked; new ranges are graded live as they resolve.
| Confirmed | Low | High | Days | Spring net | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the range log… | |||||
Why there is no single probability number here
The ranges, the flow reads and the graded outcomes are measured facts, read straight from the price and volume data. Those are the page, and they are not up for debate.
We wanted to give you one calibrated number: the probability this range resolves up, conditioned on the accumulation read inside it. We built exactly that from two honest, direction-locked features, net taker absorption and the spring-versus-upthrust balance, and we pre-registered the test before fitting anything. Out of sample the read genuinely separated the ranges: the strongest-accumulation third resolved up far more often than the weakest. But detected ranges are rare, only a few dozen across years, and the untouched final stretch of history held too few of them to confirm the effect was real and not a fluke of one era. So we do not print a precise percentage that would pretend to more certainty than the data supports. Instead we show the honest unconditional base rate, how often ranges have resolved up first, plus how often they resolved neither way, and we read the current range as a state. As more ranges resolve, the same pre-registered test re-runs itself, and a calibrated number ships only if it earns it, across market eras. It is a historical frequency, not a forecast, and never advice.
Accumulation and distribution, defined
Accumulation
Accumulation is a phase where a larger buyer builds a position while price trades sideways, absorbing the supply that sellers offer without letting price rise much. On this page it is a flavor read, taken from net taker buying absorbed inside a detected range, never a guaranteed outcome.
Distribution
Distribution is the mirror: a larger holder sells a position into a sideways range, absorbing demand without letting price fall much, often near a cycle top. Here it is read from net taker selling absorbed inside a detected range.
Trading range
A trading range is a stretch where price stays compressed, its twenty-day span held inside a multiple of its own daily volatility, after a real directional move. MyCryptoParadise detects ranges mechanically first, so the accumulation or distribution read can never be drawn to fit the outcome.
Spring
A spring is a failed breakdown: price dips below the range low and closes back inside, trapping sellers. In Wyckoff terms it is a test that shakes out weak hands before an advance, and on this page it is counted mechanically as a low that pierces the range floor and closes back above it.
Upthrust
An upthrust is the mirror of a spring: price pokes above the range high and closes back inside, trapping breakout buyers. It is counted mechanically as a high that pierces the range ceiling and closes back below it, and it often precedes a decline.
Range resolution
Range resolution is how a trading range ends: price breaks one ATR above the range (up), one ATR below it (down), or neither within the window. MyCryptoParadise grades every detected range this way and publishes the unconditional up-first base rate rather than a Wyckoff label.
A range is where the bigger side hides. These reads show the same fight from other angles.
Accumulation and distribution are about who is absorbing supply. To see where the trapped supply and the breakevens sit, read the cost basis bands and the SOPR flows; for the bigger cycle picture, read the cycle valuation. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, reading whether a range is being accumulated or distributed, and where it is most likely to break, is one of the layers behind every level we watch, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the range map
Four ideas behind the picture above.
Detect first, label second
Most Wyckoff content draws the accumulation label after price has already broken out, so it can never be wrong. We detect the range with fixed rules first, then read the flow, so the read is falsifiable.
Absorption is the tell
When price stays flat but the taker flow is one-sided, someone bigger is absorbing the other side. Heavy net buying into a flat range is the accumulation footprint; heavy net selling is distribution.
Springs and upthrusts test the range
A dip below the low that snaps back is a spring; a poke above the high that fails is an upthrust. They are the range testing who is trapped, and we count them mechanically rather than eyeballing them.
We grade the outcome, not the vibe
Every range eventually breaks up, down, or drifts. We record which, so the base rate you see is a fact, and the honest share that resolved neither way is shown too.