In short: a mystery whale opened a $38 million Bitcoin short with a liquidation price near $68,439. In this Tuesday session, Simon from the ParadiseTeam reads the higher-probability path as a flush toward $59,000 first, then a push up toward $79,000. That upside path would climb straight through the whale’s $68.4K liquidation on the way. So the short is exposed if the bullish C-wave plays out. It is a probability read, not a forecast. Bitcoin still needs to reset funding and clear crowded long positions before the move can build.
What is the $38M whale short, and where does it get liquidated?
A single large trader opened a Bitcoin short position worth about $38 million. A short profits when price falls. This one carries a liquidation price near $68,439, the level where the exchange force-closes the position at a loss if Bitcoin rises to it.
The title question is really about that number. Can Bitcoin trade up to $68.4K and hunt the whale out? Simon’s read says the path there is not a straight line up. He expects a dip first, then the climb that would put the short under pressure.
Is Bitcoin still bullish on the higher time frames?
Yes, on the weekly and daily charts Simon stays bullish. His base case is a C-wave, a motive move that unfolds as five smaller waves, targeting around $79,000. Several confluences sit at that level and act like a magnet for price.
On the weekly he sketches an ending diagonal, a wedge-shaped finish to a trend. His view holds that before Bitcoin can break below the prior low near $57,000, it first needs to push higher and gather fuel. The $79,000 zone is the upside target, not a promise.
Why does the ParadiseTeam want a flush toward $59,000 first?
Because the market has not reset yet. Bitcoin still shows a 16% long squeeze probability on the medium time frame, meaning crowded long positions remain exposed. Funding, the fee that keeps perpetual prices tethered to spot, is still positive on Bitcoin while altcoins turn colder and negative.
Simon wants a flush that clears those longs and flips the reading toward a short squeeze setup instead. A drop toward the $60,000 to $59,000 zone lines up with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels. That is a natural support pocket for a secondary wave before the next leg up.
Track it live: the same long squeeze reading Simon watches sits on the live crypto funding rates board, built from positioning across all major exchanges. He wants to see the numbers cool to blue and green before hunting a long.
Two conditions would raise his confidence in that support. First, open interest, the total value of open positions, falling back toward roughly 18 billion. Second, funding turning negative as retail piles into shorts near the lows. Together they signal the fuel for a reversal is in place.
What does the Bitcoin liquidation map show?
A clear imbalance. Pushing down toward $59,000 would liquidate around $4 billion in positions, while a push up from here clears only about $1.9 billion. On the wider horizon a rally to $79,000 sits above roughly $10 billion in liquidity, versus about $5 billion below.
That lopsided map is what market makers tend to hunt. The heavier pool of stops is the more likely magnet. Explore how a stop and a liquidation level sit against a target on the tool below. The same imbalance shows on the live crypto liquidation heatmap.
Is Simon shorting Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart?
No. He reads the 4-hour as bearish in the short term but the risk-to-reward on a short is too thin for him. The setup he measured showed roughly 3.7% of risk against 6.3% of reward, which he judged not good enough to take.
The bearish signals are real, though. The fifth wave tagged the 1.272 Fibonacci extension near $64,650, then printed a shooting star and a bearish engulfing candle. Volume faded as buyers tried to clear resistance, and the MACD shows a bearish divergence, one of the stronger reversal tells.
What is the long setup he is actually waiting for?
Simon is watching for a long, not a short. He wants three things to line up at $59,000: cold funding, rising open interest into shorts, and fearful sentiment. Then he waits for confirmation of a bullish structure before entering. On his position tool the illustrative setup targeted $79,000 with a stop near $56,000.
That framing showed a potential reward of roughly 30% without leverage against roughly 6.5% of risk. It is an example of how the structure could sit, not a guarantee of the outcome. Position sizing and stop placement do the real work here, as covered in our guide to position sizing and capital preservation.
The Fear and Greed index read neutral on the 4-hour at the time of the video. Simon wants to see it turn fearful into the support zone, the kind of sentiment shift that usually precedes a low rather than a top.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Frequently asked questions
What is the $38M whale short in Bitcoin?
It is a single large short position worth about $38 million, betting that Bitcoin falls. Its liquidation price sits near $68,439, so the position is forced closed at a loss if Bitcoin rises to that level. Simon uses it as a marker for where a squeeze could trigger.
Can Bitcoin hunt the $68.4K liquidation?
It can, but Simon’s higher-probability path is not a direct run up. He expects a flush toward $59,000 first, then a push toward $79,000. That upside leg would pass through the whale’s $68,439 liquidation on the way, putting the short under pressure. It stays a probability read, not a forecast.
Why does the ParadiseTeam want Bitcoin to drop to $59,000 first?
Because the market has not reset. A drop toward $59,000 would liquidate crowded long positions, cool positive funding, and lower open interest. That pocket also lines up with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels. Simon sees it as the support where a bullish setup toward $79,000 could form.
What is a long squeeze probability?
It is a reading of how exposed long positions are to a forced sell-off. Bitcoin showed a 16% long squeeze probability on the medium time frame in this session. A higher reading means more longs could be liquidated, which can accelerate a drop before the market resets.
Is Simon shorting Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart?
No. He reads the 4-hour as short-term bearish. But the short measured only about 6.3% reward against 3.7% risk, which he judged too thin. He would rather wait for a flush into support and hunt a long with confirmation than force a weak short.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
There is a mysterious crypto [music] whale. There's just opened a Bitcoin short position worth $38 million. His liquidation price is [music] sitting at $68,439. Can he make some money before he gets liquidated? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto [music] Paradise.
>> Hello, ladies and gentlemen of Paradise Comp. This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Tuesday, and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, let's talk about if the whale can make some money before it gets liquidated.
So, first of all, we need to understand what is going on right now. So, we will go through weekly, daily, and 4-hour time frame. All right? So, what we have been going through in the previous videos been that on the daily time frame we have been bullish, and we have actually understood that we are starting to create with the highest probability a C wave that might take us up to $79,000.
All right? So, that still stays. All right? Both on the daily and weekly time frame, I'm still bullish. On the weekly time frame, with the highest probability, we are going to be doing this kind of ending diagonal that where the price action might look something like this.
So, I still believe that before we will go lower, before we will break below the previous low of $57,000, we needs to go higher. All right? And we already know that there are loads of confluences above us, and especially at that $79,000 that are working as a magnet for the price action.
And we also understand that before we can start moving lower, we needs to pick up some fuel that will help us to do so. All right? So, at this moment, we still have on our crypto funding rates a 16% long squeeze probability on Bitcoin.
All right? And I'm talking about the medium time frame. but also on the higher time frames, this still stays. All right, so we can see that still the altcoins they are getting a bit colder as you can see. We are getting into negative funding rates, but Bitcoin is still in positive numbers, yeah?
So we understand that the money are having some kind of a flow, right? Altcoins are being more reactive, Bitcoin is a bit slower. Usually, the altcoins are these kind of predictors of what's going to happen with the fundings of Bitcoin soon as well.
But right now, we can still see that a lot of people that been opening their long positions during this price action, they have not been actually liquidated by this push to the downside. So we can still see that the open interest is still there.
What I want to achieve with some flushed and that might be incoming that will reset the funding crates and will reset the long squeeze probability, hopefully, to short squeeze probability. That would help us to do this kind of movement that we are expecting on the 4-hour time frame, right?
So as you remember in the previous videos, we've been discussing that because we understand that the C wave is actually a motive wave structure, hence forth, it's going to be an impulse, aka a breathing structure where we are having five smaller breaths, right?
Inhale and exhale and inhale, which is usually the third in breath is usually the longest one, then exhale and then the final inhale that might take us up to that $79,000. But because we understand that the market is behaving and basically creating these kind of waves, we also understand that as we go higher, we are not going to go in a straight line, right?
We will have some kind of a sub wave. So we have been expecting that some kind of a resistance will be around at 63 to 64,000 dollars, right? And then we will see a rejection, and we will see the secondary wave. If this is going to have a pattern of an exhale, and you know exactly how the pattern of an exhale needs to look during the secondary waves, that will be our
confirmation that with the highest probability we are indeed going to have enough power to start pushing towards the next important resistance, and we will really do the next important move in the market in the upside direction. So, we have been also talking about that if we will confirm that this is a secondary wave, aka just an exhale before another impulsive inhale, this will be a great buying opportunity, right?
So, as you can see on the 4-hour time frame, we have not yet created the corrective motive structure. So, as you can see, we are still, basically, in my opinion, have not done the secondary wave. We have just done, so far, the first wave.
There is a possibility that the first wave was already created, and we will be talking about it, but somebody might say like this already is the secondary wave. Was this the correction? Well, in my opinion, it was a nice correction, nice flash, but you can see that it really didn't reset almost nothing, right?
So, we still have the long squeeze probability. Most of the positions are still there. We can see the open interest is still kind of untouched. Like, it liquidated some people, all right, but it wasn't that drastic, right? If we take a look right here, we still have that imbalance.
If we take a look on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, we still do have the imbalance. If we will start pushing towards that $59,000, where I do believe for the secondary wave is going to be a very nice support zone, all right? So, I have been taking my Fibonacci retracement tool from the local low to the local high of the possible fifth wave, and as you You see, it's showing me a
beautiful 618 Fibonacci and 786 Fibonacci retracement levels where this might be working as a nice support for the potential secondary wave. All right. So, around 60,000 to 59,000 dollars, there might be a nice support. And if we take a look, if we will go there, we will liquidate if we will push towards 59,000 dollars, we will pretty much liquidate the people that been opening the long positions during this push to the
upside, right? So, they will be liquidated, ladies and gentlemen. As you can see, right now we are having some buy wall at 60,800 dollars, but it's nothing that strong and it's just appearing, right? And then it like goes it vanished then a little bit.
So, it seems like it seems like spoofing to be honest. All right, it doesn't seems like a proper proper buy wall that would really as the price goes close to it would stay there all right. So, at this moment we don't see anything at 59,000 dollars which might be actually iceberg and which is usually the real orders that will appear as the price goes to the outside, right?
So, we cannot really from the buy walls and sell walls right now create enough probabilities, but what we definitely see is that nobody aggressively is currently bidding the market. All right, so there are not much defenders that would help the price to stay in this uptrend.
All right. So, what I want to see, what will be basically increasing the probabilities if we will start pushing to the downside that I might be looking for a long position for the potential positioning for the next impulse of the third wave, right?
I want to see the open interest to decrease at least to this, yeah, to 18 billions right here. That will tell me to get away from looking at the funding price that we are getting into short squeeze probability and I'll also take a look at that the numbers are called, yeah.
I would really like to see blue to greenish color on this funding price that you can watch with me on our website marketreparlays.com and it will tell me that there is not going to be enough power left to keep pushing below this support zone, all right?
Which will increase the probability of reversal, right? And since this is a very nice support, the structure is going to be also very bullish since I will be watching also the move to the downside and it will really it will going to create the kind of structure of an exhale, right?
And you know that we have 369 corrective mode waves. So, if this, which is the secondary wave, which is a corrective mode wave, is going to have the structure of the corrective mode wave, it will confirm for me the market is just exhaling and it's preparing itself for the next inhale higher.
For me, this is going to be I will be watching more more stuff as well like momentum indicators, multiple time frame confluences, etc. But I cannot like we would be here for hours, right? So, I just want to give you the kind of basic understanding what we are right now thinking about with the Parallax team and what might be our trading tactic inside of Parallax and VIP and I also want to
tell you that this is not going to be just nice high probability if we get enough confluences of a bullish trade, but also the risk reward will be very nice since it will be hard to push below the support zone and we know that the support zone is very strong, right?
And because the structure is also bullish, we will be able to place the stop loss smartly and we can understand, if I show you this long position tool, that the risk reward will be very nice, right? So, we will be placing the stop loss depends on how aggressive or defensively we will be at that moment, but probably something like this towards 56,000 dollars.
And you can see we will be targeting with the highest probability that 79,000 dollars, right? From the daily time frame perspective, this might be the top top level for our C wave, right? We have lots of confluences there, you know, from the previous videos where we might be why we might be targeting that.
So, you can clearly see that we might be like looking forward to make 30% without any leverage versus risking just 6.5% on that position size that we decide to go into the trade [clears throat] with. So, very nice, high probability trade possible and great risk reward, right?
So, definitely a lot of people might be panicking as we go towards this support zone. For me, because I understand the multi time frame structure, I will actually be looking for long positions. All right, so that's about this. Right now, ladies and gentlemen, let's just quickly go through also understanding that the fear and greed index is showing us neutral on the 4-hour time frame.
So, I really want to see if we start pushing towards that support zone, sentiment to start getting fearful. Yeah? Then I want to see also that the funding rates are getting negative and I want to see the open interest actually increasing. That will tell me that there is high confluences of retail going into short positions.
What then it will create, it will create an opportunity, an opportunity for the market makers to create this kind of domino effect, right? And if we if we look here at yearly, it will create this kind of beautiful domino effect that if we will liquidate this, we can see on the higher time frame the next imbalance, right?
So, if you will start pushing to the downside, we will liquidate around $4 billion, right? From the lower time frame, there is a huge imbalance between like if you will start pushing to the upside, the same direction we will only liquidate around $1.9 billion.
The same even lower direction to the downside, we will liquidate $4.5 billion. So, huge imbalance, right? That's what we care about. But, then if you will shift our focus if we zoom out basically and we will shift our focus on the longer time frame horizon, we can actually understand that more traders are still in a long positions.
However, with lower leverage and with better stop losses, all right? In short positions, I mean. So, if you will start pushing higher towards let's say that $79,000, all right? We will liquidate around $10 billion, all right? If you will go the same direction to the downside, only around $5 billion, yeah?
So, the imbalance will be huge. Given that also right now we might be liquidating towards that $59,000, most of that $5 billion, all right? So, then it will create another huge imbalance and that is why the high probability is still is still is that the movement of the price action might be something like this, yeah?
Liquidation lower towards that $59,000 and then start pushing higher. So, the price action is actually confirming with this count of bias of what we are seeing behind the scenes on our data. If we take a look right now quickly on the price action, it seems like we are indeed confirming the finishment of the first motive wave structure, which is basically an impulse.
So, it's subdivided itself into five small waves, all right? And let's check it out. One, two. This was the third wave. Then we have got a correction, all right, ABC, which was the fourth wave, which is the alternation of the secondary wave. And then on the lower timeframe, we can confirm that this was five waves, 1 2 3 4, and then final fifth wave that been pushing towards 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level
at 64,650. And >> [clears throat] >> uh we have created afterwards this shooting star candlestick and then a bearish engulfing candlestick afterwards. So, this is bearish. So, we might be creating right now the first, second, and the next will be continuation to the downside.
We can also confirm that on the volume that the bulls are really trying to push through this resistance, through this resistance that we have been like describing in the previous video, that they are having very harsh time to do so. So, we can see that the volume is decreasing as the price action is trying to push above this resistance.
The bullish volume is decreasing. Then we can see the momentum as we as we have been creating higher highs, it's actually creating lower highs on the MACD, all right? So, this is creating something what we call bearish divergence, ladies and gentlemen. And you can see this is actually one of the strongest one, right?
So, if we are creating higher highs on the price action and then lower highs on the indicator, this is one of the strongest one, bearish divergence, ladies and gentlemen. So, yeah, so the bulls are not only losing the volume, but also momentum. And you know that it's like when the car is going uphill, right?
And it's going, going, going, but it starts to lose the fuel, that's the momentum. So, it's going fast and then it starts to slow down, slow down, slow down, and then the gravity starts to play out, right? So, this is something similar what we can see right now on the price action happening, which is not diminishing the potential of the price moving higher, but the probabilities are lower for that, right?
So, it's actually increasing the probabilities that we are really start to pushing towards that $59,000 with the highest probability. It means that Does it mean that for certain it needs to happen? No, but right now we are having higher probability of that happening.
Will I be playing a short position right here? Well, I can clearly see the price action being very volatile. For me, the stop loss versus target risk reward is not that beneficial. So, I would need to place my stop loss at least here.
My target would be around like the last target would be here. 3.7% loss versus 6.3% profit. For somebody it might be a great risk reward. For me, it's not, all right? It's not good enough. So, I will not be playing shorts on the 4-hour time frame.
I'm I'm just focusing on the potential of creating long position if we will start pushing towards that $59,000 and I will get enough confirmations to do so. So, right now we can see bearish cross on the momentum MACD indicator, yeah. Bearish divergence. I will be waiting for bullish divergence if we will start pushing to the upside before a long position.
We can see that the RSI trying to reclaim is actually reclaimed already. This RSI line that been previously working as a support, right? Into a resistance. So, it's bearish as well. And stochastic RSI you might say it's an over in an oversold area.
I just see that both of the legs are looking to the downside in this zone. So, the bears are in control, yeah? Ladies and gentlemen, that's my plan and you know that trading is about protecting your capital. I would much rather lose a trade than risking my capital unnecessarily.
All right? So, even if we'd go down, me personally, we have more traders in the team, so somebody might take the position with their trading tactic, but right now for me personally, this is not a great risk reward at this moment. It might change, but at this moment it's not a great risk reward.
I don't have enough probabilities for doing so, but the probabilities are definitely higher for the price action looking something like this than something different right now, okay? So, you know exactly what I will be waiting for doing this. And maybe if the price action will be slow enough and good enough, we will be discussing that in the next video.
So, the next video will be on Thursday. Until then, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy, and I will see you next time. Cheers. >> Calm, breath. Clear eyes. Work [music] done. Now right, no rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap.
Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like [singing] a pro, that's it. Clean setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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