In short: a mystery whale opened a $38 million Bitcoin short with a liquidation price near $68,439. In this Tuesday session, Simon from the ParadiseTeam reads the higher-probability path as a flush toward $59,000 first, then a push up toward $79,000. That upside path would climb straight through the whale’s $68.4K liquidation on the way. So the short is exposed if the bullish C-wave plays out. It is a probability read, not a forecast. Bitcoin still needs to reset funding and clear crowded long positions before the move can build.
What is the $38M whale short, and where does it get liquidated?
A single large trader opened a Bitcoin short position worth about $38 million. A short profits when price falls. This one carries a liquidation price near $68,439, the level where the exchange force-closes the position at a loss if Bitcoin rises to it.
The title question is really about that number. Can Bitcoin trade up to $68.4K and hunt the whale out? Simon’s read says the path there is not a straight line up. He expects a dip first, then the climb that would put the short under pressure.
Is Bitcoin still bullish on the higher time frames?
Yes, on the weekly and daily charts Simon stays bullish. His base case is a C-wave, a motive move that unfolds as five smaller waves, targeting around $79,000. Several confluences sit at that level and act like a magnet for price.
On the weekly he sketches an ending diagonal, a wedge-shaped finish to a trend. His view holds that before Bitcoin can break below the prior low near $57,000, it first needs to push higher and gather fuel. The $79,000 zone is the upside target, not a promise.
Why does the ParadiseTeam want a flush toward $59,000 first?
Because the market has not reset yet. Bitcoin still shows a 16% long squeeze probability on the medium time frame, meaning crowded long positions remain exposed. Funding, the fee that keeps perpetual prices tethered to spot, is still positive on Bitcoin while altcoins turn colder and negative.
Simon wants a flush that clears those longs and flips the reading toward a short squeeze setup instead. A drop toward the $60,000 to $59,000 zone lines up with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels. That is a natural support pocket for a secondary wave before the next leg up.
Track it live: the same long squeeze reading Simon watches sits on the live crypto funding rates board, built from positioning across all major exchanges. He wants to see the numbers cool to blue and green before hunting a long.
Two conditions would raise his confidence in that support. First, open interest, the total value of open positions, falling back toward roughly 18 billion. Second, funding turning negative as retail piles into shorts near the lows. Together they signal the fuel for a reversal is in place.
What does the Bitcoin liquidation map show?
A clear imbalance. Pushing down toward $59,000 would liquidate around $4 billion in positions, while a push up from here clears only about $1.9 billion. On the wider horizon a rally to $79,000 sits above roughly $10 billion in liquidity, versus about $5 billion below.
That lopsided map is what market makers tend to hunt. The heavier pool of stops is the more likely magnet. Explore how a stop and a liquidation level sit against a target on the tool below. The same imbalance shows on the live crypto liquidation heatmap.
Is Simon shorting Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart?
No. He reads the 4-hour as bearish in the short term but the risk-to-reward on a short is too thin for him. The setup he measured showed roughly 3.7% of risk against 6.3% of reward, which he judged not good enough to take.
The bearish signals are real, though. The fifth wave tagged the 1.272 Fibonacci extension near $64,650, then printed a shooting star and a bearish engulfing candle. Volume faded as buyers tried to clear resistance, and the MACD shows a bearish divergence, one of the stronger reversal tells.
What is the long setup he is actually waiting for?
Simon is watching for a long, not a short. He wants three things to line up at $59,000: cold funding, rising open interest into shorts, and fearful sentiment. Then he waits for confirmation of a bullish structure before entering. On his position tool the illustrative setup targeted $79,000 with a stop near $56,000.
That framing showed a potential reward of roughly 30% without leverage against roughly 6.5% of risk. It is an example of how the structure could sit, not a guarantee of the outcome. Position sizing and stop placement do the real work here, as covered in our guide to position sizing and capital preservation.
The Fear and Greed index read neutral on the 4-hour at the time of the video. Simon wants to see it turn fearful into the support zone, the kind of sentiment shift that usually precedes a low rather than a top.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Frequently asked questions
What is the $38M whale short in Bitcoin?
It is a single large short position worth about $38 million, betting that Bitcoin falls. Its liquidation price sits near $68,439, so the position is forced closed at a loss if Bitcoin rises to that level. Simon uses it as a marker for where a squeeze could trigger.
Can Bitcoin hunt the $68.4K liquidation?
It can, but Simon’s higher-probability path is not a direct run up. He expects a flush toward $59,000 first, then a push toward $79,000. That upside leg would pass through the whale’s $68,439 liquidation on the way, putting the short under pressure. It stays a probability read, not a forecast.
Why does the ParadiseTeam want Bitcoin to drop to $59,000 first?
Because the market has not reset. A drop toward $59,000 would liquidate crowded long positions, cool positive funding, and lower open interest. That pocket also lines up with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels. Simon sees it as the support where a bullish setup toward $79,000 could form.
What is a long squeeze probability?
It is a reading of how exposed long positions are to a forced sell-off. Bitcoin showed a 16% long squeeze probability on the medium time frame in this session. A higher reading means more longs could be liquidated, which can accelerate a drop before the market resets.
Is Simon shorting Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart?
No. He reads the 4-hour as short-term bearish. But the short measured only about 6.3% reward against 3.7% risk, which he judged too thin. He would rather wait for a flush into support and hunt a long with confirmation than force a weak short.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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