Yello Paradisers! Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely reject all bitcoin spot ETF proposals this January. Despite recent efforts and updates by applicants, Thielen points out that these proposals still miss a crucial requirement for SEC approval.
Underlying Reasons for Potential Rejections
Thielen’s prediction is grounded in the current political dynamics and compliance issues surrounding the crypto industry. SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s stance towards stricter regulation of crypto, according to Thielen, indicates a reluctance to embrace cryptocurrency in the U.S. fully.
SEC Chair’s Concerns
Gensler’s past remarks to CNBC highlighted the rampant fraud and non-compliance in the crypto sector. These issues bolster Thielen’s view that the SEC is unlikely to approve any bitcoin spot ETFs in the near future.
Potential Impact of Rejections
Should the SEC indeed reject these ETF proposals, Thielen warns of significant liquidations in perpetual long bitcoin futures. This could lead to a sharp drop in bitcoin’s price, potentially falling into the $36,000 to $38,000 range.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Position
As of now, Bitcoin trades at around $44,562, marking a 5% increase since the year’s start and a 65% rise over the past three months. The cryptocurrency celebrates the 15th anniversary of its genesis block today.
2024 Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite the potential short-term volatility, Thielen maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2024. Citing historical trends related to U.S. election years and Bitcoin mining cycles, Matrixport foresees Bitcoin’s value exceeding its starting point of $42,000 by the year’s end.
