Crypto Volatility Index (DVOL) and vol regime, live
DVOL is the crypto market’s 30-day implied volatility, read first-hand from Deribit. We put it next to how much the market has actually been moving, so you can see the volatility regime and who is overpaying for protection right now.
Connecting…
Volatility regime DVOL, per coin
reading the market…
… DVOL, at the … percentile of this coin’s own history.
Who overpays for protection now variance premium
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Comparing what options are priced at against how much the market has actually moved.
Implied volatility (DVOL) versus realized volatility
The reading is still building.
The gap between the two lines is the variance premium. Values are annualized volatility points. DVOL is read first-hand from Deribit; realized volatility is a high-low range estimate from daily candles.
When the calm has ignited before descriptive, not a probability
Measuring how often, when the variance premium looked like it does now, the market went on to move more than options had priced…
Why there is no single probability number here
We tested whether the variance premium could tell us the odds that the calm ignites. Out of sample the effect was real and strong: when protection was cheapest relative to the recent range, the market went on to out-move what options priced far more often than usual. But that edge did not hold up in the final block of history we kept completely untouched. So we do not print an Ignition Probability. We show you the regime, the premium, the record, and our own honest test, and we let you read it.
That is the whole point of this page: an insurance-market read you can audit, not a number we cannot stand behind.
The volatility read, defined
Crypto volatility index (DVOL)
DVOL is Deribit’s 30-day implied volatility index for Bitcoin and Ethereum, built from the whole options curve. It is the market-clearing price of the next month of volatility, quoted as an annualized percentage. It tells you what the options market expects, not which way price will go.
The variance risk premium
The variance risk premium is the gap between implied volatility (what options are priced at) and realized volatility (how much the market has actually moved). In crypto it is usually positive, which means buyers of protection tend to overpay and sellers of options tend to harvest that premium. When it inverts, the sellers are the exposed side.
Volatility regimes
A volatility regime is where current volatility sits against a coin’s own history: from Deep Freeze and Compression at the calm end, through Normal, to Elevated and Storm. Volatility is the most regime-persistent series in crypto, and compression regimes tend to end with an expansion, though never on a schedule.
Volatility is the weather. Funding and open interest are the pressure. The map is where it breaks.
When volatility is compressed and protection is cheap, a build in open interest with one-sided funding is the kind of setup that resolves with a move. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, the volatility regime is one of the layers behind every decision we make, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the volatility regime
Four ideas behind the picture above.
Implied is a forecast, realized is the record
Implied volatility (DVOL) is what the options market is charging for the next month of movement. Realized volatility is what actually happened. Reading them together is how you see whether the market is over-insured or under-insured right now.
Read it against the coin, not an absolute
A 45 on DVOL means different things for Bitcoin and Ethereum. We show where volatility sits against each coin’s own history, as a percentile, never as a one-size threshold.
Compression is not calm forever
Volatility is mean-reverting and regime-persistent. Long stretches in the low end of the range tend to end with an expansion. When it happens and which way it breaks is not something this page claims to know.
The premium tells you who is exposed
When options are priced well above the recent range, buyers of protection are overpaying and sellers are harvesting. When realized runs above implied, the sellers are underwater and have to chase the move. That is who is forced to act.