Derivatives Regime Radar: who is driving the move
Price, open interest and funding read together on one wheel. Each of the eight regimes names who is driving the move and who is most exposed if it turns. A read on positioning, not a forecast, and not financial advice.
Do our other reads agree? early fusion preview
A first look at how our reads line up. The full MyCryptoParadise Index, which fuses them into one calibrated score, is in build.
The last month of regimes
Each block is one day. Warmer blocks are price-up regimes, cooler blocks are price-down regimes, grey is between regimes.
Why there is no calibrated probability number here
Most sites would slap a confident percentage on each regime. We tested whether the eight regimes actually predict that a move keeps going, out of sample, before we would print a calibrated number. We reconstructed more than five years of BTC and ETH regimes, fit the odds on data the test never saw, and held out the most recent three months untouched.
The regimes did separate in the in-sample test, but the ordering did not hold up cleanly in the untouched hold-out. So, by a rule we wrote down before we looked at the result, this page does not print a calibrated Continuation Probability. Instead it shows the wheel, the regime history, and the descriptive historical frequencies, labelled as descriptive. A competitor shows you the regime. We show you the regime and tell you plainly what we could and could not prove about it.
The eight derivatives regimes
Every combination of price direction, open-interest direction and funding, named in plain English. This is the naming we use across MyCryptoParadise.
Crowded chase
price rising · open interest building · funding stretched
New longs pile in as price rises and funding runs hot.
Who is exposed Late longs, if the move stalls and funding has to unwind.
Fresh conviction
price rising · open interest building · funding soft
New money lifts price while funding stays soft.
Who is exposed Shorts leaning against a move that is not overpaying to hold.
Relief bounce
price rising · open interest falling · funding soft
Price lifts on closing positions with funding soft.
Who is exposed No one committed yet, so the bounce can fade quickly.
Short covering
price rising · open interest falling · funding stretched
Price rises while open interest falls and funding stays hot.
Who is exposed Remaining shorts buying back, a move that tends to self-exhaust.
Deleveraging
price falling · open interest falling · funding soft
Price and leverage bleed out together with funding soft.
Who is exposed Few forced sellers left, so the move can be running on empty.
Long flush
price falling · open interest falling · funding stretched
Price and open interest fall together while funding unwinds.
Who is exposed Longs being forced out, the purge of a crowded upside build.
Fresh shorts
price falling · open interest building · funding soft
New shorts press price lower with funding soft or easing.
Who is exposed Longs on the wrong side of freshly built downside leverage.
Longs pressing
price falling · open interest building · funding stretched
Price falls yet open interest grows and funding stays hot.
Who is exposed Averaging-down longs still paying to hold the losing side.
How often each regime kept going, by timeframe PRO
PRO Paradisers see the full table: how often every one of the eight regimes was followed by the move extending, for the 4h, daily and weekly horizons. Become a PRO Paradiser
The regime names who is driving. The other tools show the fuel and the crowd.
Open interest shows how much leverage is built up, funding shows who is paying to hold it, and the whale-vs-crowd read shows whether the money agrees with the head-count. This wheel puts them into one picture.
For the ParadiseTeam, reading the regime is the first question before any trade: who is driving this move, and who gets hurt if it turns. That reasoning is shared in full inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the wheel
Three axes, one picture.
Price direction
The first thing the wheel reads is whether price has been rising or falling over the recent window. The right half of the wheel is price up, the left half is price down. A move that is too small to matter is left unnamed, shown as between regimes.
Open interest direction
Next is whether open interest is growing or shrinking. Growing open interest means new leverage is entering and fuel is being built. Falling open interest means positions are being closed, so the current move is being fed by people exiting, which tends to run out.
Funding
Last is funding: whether the crowd is paying up to hold the move or whether it has gone quiet. We read funding against each coin’s own recent history, never as a raw number, so stretched means stretched for this coin.
Put together
The three axes combine into one of eight named regimes. Each names who is driving and who is most exposed if it turns. The names are the same ones the ParadiseTeam uses when we talk about the market.