Altcoin season index, live: is capital rotating from bitcoin into alts?
Altcoin season is when money rotates out of bitcoin and most alts outrun it at once. Everyone else prints a trailing number that tells you whether it already happened. We show you that number too, honestly, and then we tell you the part nobody else will: we tested whether a hot alt-versus-bitcoin run keeps going, and out of sample it did not. So we do not sell you an ignition probability. We give you the live breadth, the dry powder, and the plain truth about the odds.
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Alt-Season Index reading…
…/100
the share of the top 50 alts beating bitcoin over the trailing 30 days
The classic index calls it “alt season” only above 75. Index live since our own dated snapshots began on 6 July 2026; it deepens toward the classic 90-day read as the snapshot history grows.
Will the rotation continue?
…%
is how often the alt complex actually beat bitcoin over the NEXT 30 days across the record since 2018, with no condition. We do not print an ignition probability because a hot run did not predict a hotter one out of sample.
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Dry powder (SSR)
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bitcoin’s market cap divided by the stablecoin pool. A lower reading means a bigger pile of sidelined dollars relative to bitcoin, which is more potential rotation fuel. It is permission to buy, not an obligation.
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The rotation race vs bitcoin
Last 30 days
Drag the lookback from a day to a month and watch the leaders re-rank. Each stop is a real measured return versus bitcoin over that window, so a coin hot this week but cold this month visibly slides as you widen it. That gap is rotation: who is heating up, and who is only holding on.
The rotation race is loading.
The cast is the coins leading over any of the three windows, from our own dated top-100 snapshots, with stablecoins and wrapped tokens removed and thin-book listings filtered by a liquidity floor and a market-anchor guard. A bar to the right of the bitcoin line means beating bitcoin over the chosen window; to the left means trailing it. A day-by-day version deepens as the snapshot record grows.
How broad is it? top 100
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The share of the top 100 coins, stablecoins and wrapped tokens removed, that beat bitcoin over the trailing 30 days. A broad reading means the move is market-wide rotation, not one or two coins running. Source: our own dated CoinGecko top-100 snapshots.
Breadth over time since Jul 2026
The breadth history is accruing; the chart fills in as more daily readings land.
Hover any day to read that day’s breadth. The dashed lines mark bitcoin season (25), balanced (50) and the classic alt-season threshold (75).
Our own daily breadth prints, one point per day, accruing since the dated snapshots began on 6 July 2026. Because dated top-100 rankings cannot be reconstructed after the fact, this record can only grow forward, which is exactly why it is worth keeping. The index history is young, so the range tabs open up as the record deepens.
The full rotation board 30-day vs bitcoin
The top-100 alts ranked by how much they beat or trailed bitcoin over the trailing 30 days. Stablecoins and wrapped tokens are removed, and thin-book listings are filtered by a liquidity floor and a market-anchor guard so a single illiquid spike cannot headline the board.
| # | Coin | 30-day move | vs bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the rotation leaderboard… | |||
What we will and will not put a number on
The breadth dial, the top-100 strip, the leaderboard and the dry-powder ratio are measured facts, read from live prices and on-chain stablecoin supply. Those are the page, and they are honest as far as they go: they tell you whether alts are outrunning bitcoin right now.
What everyone wants is the next step: is alt season about to ignite? We built the obvious test. We took a survivorship-disclosed basket of long-lived large-cap alts priced in bitcoin going back to 2018, measured its trailing 30-day run versus bitcoin, and asked how often a hot run was followed by the alt complex beating bitcoin over the next 30 days. On an untouched block of recent history the answer was the opposite of the folklore: a hot alt-versus-bitcoin run was followed by mean reversion, not continuation, and a survivorship-free check on the pure ETH/bitcoin ratio showed no reliable continuation edge either, so the failure was not just an artifact of the basket. Because the pre-registered thesis did not survive out of sample, we do not print an Alt-Season Ignition probability. Selling one anyway would be exactly the kind of number this whole project exists to refuse. For context, across the full record the alt complex beat bitcoin over a given 30 days only about a third of the time, so bitcoin’s pull is the base case, and a broad breadth reading is a description of the present, not a forecast of the next month.
Altcoin season, defined
Altcoin season
Altcoin season is a stretch when capital rotates out of bitcoin and the large majority of altcoins outperform it at the same time. It is a behaviour of the whole market rather than a single coin running, and nobody is forced to make it happen, so it is a rotation read, not a trigger.
Altcoin season index
An altcoin season index measures breadth: what share of the leading altcoins beat bitcoin over a trailing window. The classic version uses the top fifty over ninety days and calls it alt season above seventy-five. MyCryptoParadise computes its own from dated top-100 snapshots and shows the honest forward odds beside the trailing number.
Stablecoin supply ratio
The stablecoin supply ratio, or SSR, is bitcoin’s market cap divided by the total stablecoin market cap. A low ratio means a large pool of sidelined dollars relative to bitcoin, which is potential buying power, or dry powder. It is a regime read, not a timing signal, because minting stablecoins is permission to buy, not an obligation.
Breadth tells you rotation is happening. Funding and fear tell you how crowded it already is.
A broad alt run met by stretched funding and greedy sentiment is a different animal from the same breadth on calm funding. Reading them together separates a fresh rotation from a late one. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, reading whether capital is genuinely rotating into alts, and how much dry powder is waiting, is one of the layers behind every decision we make and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the altcoin season index
Four ideas behind the picture above.
Breadth is a description, not a forecast
A high reading tells you alts are beating bitcoin right now. It does not tell you they will keep doing so. We tested that leap and it did not hold, which is why the trailing number and the forward odds are shown as two separate things.
Nobody is forced to rotate
Unlike an ETF creation or a liquidation, alt season has no forced actor. It is a crowd behaviour, so it can start late, end early, and reverse fast. Treat it as a regime read, never a trigger.
Dry powder is fuel, not a spark
A large stablecoin pool relative to bitcoin means the buying power exists. It does not mean it will be spent. The SSR frames the potential; it never tells you the timing.
Bitcoin’s pull is the base case
Across the full record the alt complex beat bitcoin over a given month only about a third of the time. Alts winning is the exception, not the default, which is why a broad breadth reading is worth noticing but never worth chasing blindly.