Payrolls beat expectations, but growth slows, job openings shrink, and factories stall. All eyes now turn to the Fed.
Key Highlights:
• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 in April—above expectations, but below March’s 185,000.
• Unemployment held steady at 4.2%, while wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-over-month.
Yello ParadiseSquad, yes, the U.S. added more jobs than expected in April, but the bigger picture is far from bullish. Nonfarm payrolls beat forecasts with a gain of 177,000 jobs (vs. 138,000 expected), but this still represents a slowdown from March’s already revised-lower 185,000.
More importantly, wage growth dipped slightly to 0.2% month-on-month, suggesting that while employers are holding onto workers, they’re pulling back on pay raises—a potential early signal of demand softening beneath the surface.
Behind the Headline: Red Flags Are Piling Up
Zoom out, and the cracks are starting to widen:
- Job openings plunged in March to a six-month low.
- ADP private sector payrolls disappointed.
- Weekly jobless claims spiked.
- Factory activity contracted for another month, according to the ISM survey.
- And worst of all, Q1 GDP shrank 0.3%—a contraction that was unthinkable just months ago.
This is a data cocktail that screams stagflation risk: slowing growth but sticky inflation, especially as Trump’s aggressive tariffs raise costs and complicate monetary policy.
The Fed’s Next Move Just Got Trickier
With the Federal Reserve set to meet next week, the central bank is now boxed in by two opposing forces:
- A cooling labor market and a shrinking economy suggest the need for easing.
- But Trump’s tariffs risk re-accelerating inflation, pressuring the Fed to stay hawkish.
Currently, futures markets are pricing in up to four 25-bps rate cuts by year-end, but that’s a bet on softening data overwhelming tariff-driven price pressure. The Fed has so far kept its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% in 2025 after one full percentage point in cuts last year.
What Does This Mean for Crypto?
This tug-of-war between growth fears and inflation risks could drive volatility in both equities and crypto. If the Fed leans dovish next week, expect risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to surge on lower-rate optimism. But if they hint at a pause due to tariff-driven inflation risks, expect a shakeout—especially in overextended altcoins.
We’ll be tracking the Fed’s statement and Powell’s tone live next week in our YouTube stream, and ParadiseFamilyVIP members already have our full macro roadmap for May, including rate predictions, risk asset positioning, and volatility setups.
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